July 18, 2018
RAUNER IS A GONER IN ILLINOIS GOVERNOR RACE
How do you get out of a bottomless political pit? IL Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) can and will spend $100 million in the governor's race, but polling shows he's getting absolutely no traction, and is barely eclipsing 30% in polls against JB Pritzker (D). Those are horrific numbers. JB is spending $207,000 a day, and he has changed the campaign narrative. He has labelled Rauner a "failure," and is in a polling comfort zone of 43-47%. That means, in what portends to be a Democratic "wave" year, he's the next governor. Rauner has, as promised, "Shaken Up Springfield," over 4 years, but he's done a dismal job of packaging and selling that "accomplishment" to the voters. Clinton won IL by 944,711 votes in 2016. The only question is whether Pritzker will beat Rauner by more than that on Nov. 6. Full Article...
July 11, 2018
KAVANAUGH NOMINATION WILL IMPACT US SENATE RACES IN NUMEROUS STATES
President Trump’s choice of Brett Kavanaugh for the pending U.S. Supreme Court vacancy is going to make life politically tenuous for Democratic senators from Indiana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana and Missouri -- all heavily pro-Trump states in 2016 – and, to a lesser extent, in Florida and Virginia. How they vote will potentially have career-ending consequences. Presuming the Kavanaugh confirmation vote occurs before the Nov. 6 election, a vote to reject Kavanaugh would galvanize the conservative Republican base in those states, jeopardizing their re-election; conversely, a vote to confirm Kavanaugh would inflame the liberal Democratic base, causing them to punish their senator by not turning out. It’s a lose-lose situation, but the expedient solution would be to cast a pro-Kavanaugh vote, and get re-elected. Full Article...
July 4, 2018
ALD. NAPOLITANO EXPECTS OPPONENT HENEGHAN TO WAGE "CAMPAIGN OF LIES" IN 41ST WARD
It's beginning. According to Ald. Anthony Napolitano (41st), a "campaign of lies" is already underway and is being waged by 2019 aldermanic opponent Tim Heneghan. Napolitano has one of the council's highest anti-Emanuel voting records, and has brought a plethora of capital improvements to his northwest side ward during his first term. So Heneghan is using innuendo and untruths to undermine the alderman and his record, he said. Regarding the new Norwood Park ice hockey rink, he is allegedly telling neighbors they will lose their residential parking permits. Not true. Regarding the proposed 297-unit apartment/commercial project on the Marriott Hotel property on Higgins, Heneghan is allegedly spreading disinformation that it will contain low-income apartments. Not true. Napolitano has killed the deal, citing density issues. And regarding a church for sale in the Harlem-Foster area, Heneghan is allegedly telling Oriole Park residents that it will be converted into low-income housing. Not true. Napolitano also invited Ald. John Arena (45th), who wants to "desegregate" the Northwest Side and put low-income units into the Marriott project, to "take a drive" through the west end of the 41st Ward, where there are 6,503 housing units, almost all apartments, and there is great diversity -- blacks, Hispanics, Asian Indians and Pakistanis, Asians and immigrants. Napolitano will win easily in 2019. Full Article...
June 27, 2018
ALDERMAN SPOSATO WINNING "WAR OF NON-ATTRITION"
Unlike other public officeholders, Chicago aldermen focus on minimizing attrition and not maximizing addition. An alderman's path to reelection is simply doing something tangible for the constituents, and doing it well and fast. For everybody else, the path to reelection is saying something that is more placating and palatable to the constituents. An alderman's $108,000-a year job is to win the "War of Non-Attrition" - which means providing enough services so as to not dissatisfy enough constituents to get booted out of office. In short, win the "War of Non-Attrition." Full Article...
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