February 13, 2019
"SEPARATION ANXIETY" PREVALENT IN 39TH WARD, "COMFORT ZONE" IN 40TH WARD

There will be an aldermanic runoff in the 39th Ward and Ald. Pat O'Connor will will win without a runoff in the 40th Ward. Dem committeeman Robert Murphy is the self-proclaimed FRONTRUNNER in the 39th, but he won't crack 40% on 2/26; It will be Murphy 37%, Nugent 36%, Smagala 24% and Duplechin 5%, with a 4/2 Murphy-Nugent runoff, which Nugent will win 57-43%. SEPARATION ANXIETY is prevalent with the departure of Ald. Marge Laurino, and Nugent is viewed as the next best housekeeper and provider of ward services, while Murphy has a citywide agenda; Nugent has also raised well over $125,000. O'Connor will soon be out the door as council floor leader, but a COMFORT ZONE in the 40th Ward will re-elect him and he will be back as Finance Committee chairman. ATTACHED is a CHART detailing the 39th Ward's recent VOTING HISTORY. Full Article...


February 6, 2019
ARENA'S RE-ELECTION NOT INEVITABLE IN 45TH WARD

John Arena was elected 45th Ward alderman by 30 votes in 2011 and then upped that to 1,225 votes in 2015, in what was essentially a re-run of 2011. Feb. 26 will be a referendum on Arena, a polarizing "progressive" in a northwest side ward (Portage Park, Jefferson Park, Gladstone Park) where there are plenty of non-leftists. He faces 3 opponents, and the suspense is whether Arena can get a majority on 2/26, or whether a 4/2 runoff looms. Polls are unclear, but Arena has money from public sector unions. Socialist Bernie Sanders got 7,457 votes in 2016, and Trump got 6,587. Can the anti-Arena field -- Gardiner, Morales and Bank -- aggregate a majority on 2/26? ATTACHED is  CHART detailing the 45th Ward's VOTING HISTORY. Expect an Arena-Gardiner runoff. Full Article...


January 30, 2019
PRECKWINKLE'S PLUNGE WILL IMPACT ALDERMANIC RACES IN BLACK WARDS

2019 is not 1983. And Toni Preckwinkle is not Harold Washington.Feb. 26, both in the mayoral and aldermanic contests, will exhibit no signs of an African-American outpouring for CHANGE. Preckwinkle is bunched around 10% in polls, along with Daley and Mendoza. That means black voter turnout may be much lower than expected, impacting aldermanic races in the 18 black-majority wards, where there are 609,743 registered voters. Wsshingon got 434,246 votes in those wards in 1983. Emanuel got 229,919 votes in those wards (57%) in the 2015 runoff. ATTACHED IS A CHART reflecting black voting history over the past few cycles. A low black turnout on 2/26 means a Daley-Mendoza runoff on 4/2, and the re-election of at least 16 of 17 black incumbents. Full Article...


January 23, 2019
RABID, ROBUST AND TEPID "PROGRESSIVES" BATTLE IN LAKEFRONT WARDS

The SOCIALISTS are coming! The SOCIALISTS are coming! No fewer than 25 self-described "democratic socialists" are running for Chicago alderman in 2019, and they -- and the city's tiny contingent of Republicans -- will have an impact on the Fe. 26 mayoral contest. Bernie Sanders got 320,000 votes in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, or 45%, which indicates a hefty number of leftists, and Donald Trump and Bruce Rauner got 135,000 Republican votes in 2016 and 2018. Those voters have to go somewhere. Turnout will be around 950,000, and, with 17 candidates, 20% -- or about 190,000-210,000 votes -- will be enough for a runoff spot. The FRINGES matter. Also, Toni Preckwinkle is dropping like a rock. Full Article...


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