February 21, 2024

February 14, 2024

February 7, 2024

There are many Americans who are convinced that a second presidential term for either Biden or Trump would be disastrous for the country. Likewise, there are many Republicans who are increasingly convinced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be disastrous for Speaker Mike Johnson and his precarious U.S. House majority. Recent polling shows RFK Jr. taking more votes from Biden than Trump and his consistent 8-11 percent polling is depressing the hardcore base vote of Trump to close to 40 percent and Biden’s to under 40 percent – which is where his job approval has now tanked. A Feb. 2 NBC poll had Biden’s approve/disapprove at 37/60; a CNN poll that same day had it at 40/60; and a Feb. 5 TIPP poll had it at 36/54. Those are doomsday numbers. Bloomberg polled all those states and its Jan. 31 poll had Trump, despite all his legal travails, winning all versus Biden alone AND all against Biden/RFK/West/Stein. In NC the numbers were 49/39 and then 45/32/9/1/1, so RFK is taking nearly twice as many votes from Biden than Trump. In GA it was 49/41 and then 44/37/8/1/1. In AZ it was 47/40 and then 43/35/10/1/1. In MI it was 47/42 and then 43/37/8/1/1. In NV it was 48/40 and then 43/31/12/1/2. In PA it was 48/45 and then 43/40/7/1/1. If Trump wins MI or PA, even getting fewer votes than in 2020, it’s over. And in WI, no hotbed of Trumpism, it was 49/44 and then 43/35/10/0/2 – although a Feb. 2 FOX poll had it tied 47/47 and 42/39/7/2/1 in the state. Full Article...

January 31, 2024

This week it’s going to be mostly gossip and trivia because people love that stuff, with some early political predictions thrown in. Countywide voters, who will not number more than 500,000, will get to choose between Kim Foxx 2.0 (Clayton Harris) and Kim Foxx 1.5 (Eileen O’Neill Burke). With all the consequential stuff going on in the world, and the prospect of a Biden-Trump rerun, the question of who gets nominated and/or elected Clerk of Circuit Court, MWRD commissioner (4), state legislator and Chicago ward committeeperson is trivial. 2024 will be a snoozer primary, much like 2012, with the main event on Nov. 5 a definite non-snoozer. With March 19 about 50 days away, here are my early predictions: The turnout in 2012’s presidential-year primary (D) was 616,661. All the winners would be the slated party candidates. Restorative justice rejects the concept of REAL punishment for criminal behavior. No more “if you commit the crime, you do the time” stuff. Jails are a relic of the past. Under RJ there is a mediation meeting between the perp and the victim guided by a mediator at which the victim explains the “harm” he/she has suffered due to the crime. The criminal then apologizes, pays some monetary restitution,  avoids incarceration, and becomes a model citizen. The crime problem is solved. Burke is running from both the Right and the Left, and blatant equivocation never turns out well. Full Article...

January 24, 2024

Always listen carefully to politicians when they say “trust me.” You – meaning the general public – absolutely, positively should know then that they are about to be fooled or already have been.  When politicians say “I’m doing what’s best” for YOU and “future generations,” you absolutely, positively should know they’re doing what’s best for themselves. And when they say “I wouldn’t lie to you,” you better, as Samuel L Jackson said in “Jurassic Park,” “Hold onto your butts.” And that will not change soon, if ever.  Democratic super-majorities in the Illinois Senate (40D-19R) and House (78D-40R) are fumbling and bumbling with an elected Chicago school board bill, which was initially passed in 2021. They say they’ve dawdled for 3 years because they’re trying to get it right. That absolutely, positively means they are going to get it wrong. I’m just playing the odds here based on the past. And by March 24 the two Democrats in Springfield who are in control — speaker Chris Welch and Senate president Don Harmon — absolutely, positively have to get it done because that’s when the 90-day nominating petition circulatory period begins. There will 20 single-member districts with the boundaries already drawn (see copy of proposed map on page 4) but when and how they get filled remains unresolved. “Things keep changing,” said state Senator Rob Martwick (D-10), the bill’s sponsor. The election is Nov. 5, coincident with the presidential vote. Attached are MAPS showing NW Side school board districts on the 11/5/24 ballot and the 20 citywide districts. It takes just 250 petition signatures by June 24 to run, and compensation could be $60,000-a year. Full Article...

January 17, 2024

In the 2024 current state of Chicago politics, the chance the chant “Let’s go, Brandon” taking on a positive connotation at a city sporting event is nil. Even some of the people who voted for Mayor Brandon Johnson are probably counting the days until he’s out of City Hall. From the optics, it’s possible that Johnson is on a trajectory to be a one-term mayor, of which Chicago has had seven since 1900. He would be joining the ranks of such in-and-out luminaries as Lori Lightfoot, Jane Byrne, Mike Bilandic, William Dever and Edward Dunne who got bounced, respectively, in 2023, 1983, 1979, 1927 and 1907 (see chart). As well as Carter Harrison Jr. and Fred Busse, who bailed in 1915 and 1911 rather than get beat. The next mayoral election is in 2027 and that means, counting January 2024, Johnson will be mayor for 40 more months until May of that year. The mayor has plenty of time to either do plenty of damage or figure out a way how to do things. “It’s way too early to speculate” about 2027, said alderman Nick Sposato (38th), “or to think about an (Johnson) opponent.” According to Sposato, Chicago has passed the point where it can “elect a moderate or White mayor.” But a few possible names that could surface, including Alderman Bill Conway (34th), who lost to Kim Foxx in 2020 but won his River North seat in 2023. Attached is a CHART listing Chicago's one-term mayors. Full Article...

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