October 17, 2018
WOMEN, MINORITIES CROWD BALLOT IN 2018 STATEWIDE CONTESTS
Do the #MeToo and BlackLivesMatter movements, as they say, have legs? We will find out on 11/6. Of the 36 governor races, Democrats have nominated a woman in 12, Republicans in 3; of the 35 U.S. Senate races, Democrats have nominated a woman in 15, Republicans in 6. Black Democrats could win governorships in GA, FL and MD, and a senate seat in MS. A gay could be CO governor. We live in an "outraged society," where everything that anybody says or does will be "offensive" to somebody. But that may not translate into electoral victory. Democrats hold 26 of 35 senate seats. They could lose MO, ND, IN, WV, and FL; Republicans could lose their seats in AZ, NV, TX and TN. But the 51-49 Senate will remain Republican, with Republicans perhaps gaining 1 or 2 seats. Democrats will net a few governorships, but the U.S. House is the prize. If Democrats knock off 23-plus Republicans, Nancy Pelosi (D) will be speaker again. Full Article...
October 10, 2018
NO TRUTH, NO CONSEQUENCES IN 15TH, 19TH DISTRICT IL HOUSE RACES
Illinois' pension and vendor debt is at $155 billion. According to the state Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, it will rise to $224 billion by 2027. Yet 2018 candidates offer no plausible solution. Democrats blather that we should "Blame It On Rauner." Republicans want to cu the state income tax to 3% and consolidate and impose efficiencies. In the Northwest Side 19th and 15th districts, where Democratic incumbents Rob Martwick and John D'Amico face, respectively, Republicans Ammy Kessem and Amanda Biela, only Martwick seems to have a grasp of reality. He is proposing a "progessive" state income tax, similar to those in CA, NY, IA. WI, MN and OR. He would scrub the current 4.95% flat tax, and replace it with a 5.84 tax on incomes of $7,500-15,000, 6.27% on incomes of $15,000-225,000 (a 27% hike) and 7.65% on incomes over $225,000 (a 54% hike). Voters aren't listening. Expect Martwick and D'Amico to be re-elected. Full Article...
October 3, 2018
PRIZKER VS. MADIGAN IS THE REAL ELECTION CONTEST -- BATTLE FOR SUPREMACY UNDERWAY
The IL governor's election is over. The question is not whether Pritzker (D) will beat Rauner (R). The question is by how much (probably 800,000) Pritzker wins, and whether Rauner will even crack 30%. In fact, Rauner may be the worst-defeated incumbent in modern Il history, going lower than losers in 1916 and 1948. The real contest is between Pritzker and Madigan, with both Democrats having different agendas. Madigan wants to keep himself in power, and Pritzker will want to enact an agenda, which will necessitate legislative approval, and will include tax hikes. To that end, Pitzker has been spending heavily on "party-building," which means pouring money into Downstate and outlying suburban county party organizations, and black Chicago wards, so that legislators can and will vote with the governor and defy the speaker, knowing that there is an alternative money source. Madigan has been hitting unions hard for cash so as to build up his warchest for 2019-20, but Pritzker has deep pockets, and can checkmate Madigan. The battle for Springfield Supremacy is underway. Full Article...
September 26, 2018
ROSKAM, 6TH DISTRICT ARE BELLWETHER FOR REPULICAN U.S. HOUSE CONTROL
As goes America on Nov. 6, so goes Illinois' 6th congressional district. An anti-Trump wave will drown incumbent Peter Roskam (R), who faces the quandary of every Republican congressman: What message do you send? Experience means nothing. Voters want new people in Washington. How about the tax cut? Democrats deride it as a boon or the "wealthy." Money is plentiful, but how do you spend it? Nov. 6 looms as a party-line election, and it's all about who turns out. Roskam faces Sean Casten (D), a fresh new face, and polls show a tight race in the DuPage County district. Also in play in Illinois are contests in the 12th, 13th and 14th districts. Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to make Nancy Pelosi speaker. They will likely gain two of them in Illinois. Full Article...
September 19, 2018
GRAVITAS, NOTORIETY DRIVE 2019 CHICAGO MAYORAL CAMPAIGN
Who's got the gravitas? Or, maybe more aptly, who's got the better social media presence? With 15 announced candidates for Chicago mayor, and another 19 pondering a campaign, the contest is all about who will finish 1-2 and make the April 2019 runoff. That will take just 15-20%. So who can best solidify their racial, gender, ethnic and/or geographic base? If Daley, Preckwinkle, Mendoza, Garcia and/or McCarthy are in the race, they will be bunched at the top. Full Article...
September 12, 2018
EMANUEL'S CHOICE WAS EITHER TO GET OUT OR TO GET BEAT
Call it crunch time, or a reality check. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is a smart guy, but on Sept. 4 he acknowledged that he had only two choices for 2019: Either get out or get beat. He got out. Over the past century Chicago mayors have faced similar predicaments. Thompson (1923), Kelly (1947) and Daley II (2011) got out before they got beat. Dever (1927), Thompson (1931), Kennelly (1955), Bilandic (1979) and Byrne (1983) got beat because they didn't get out, having estranged voters with their governance. Emanuel was the proverbial recipient of the can kicked down the road by Daley II, and his tax hikes to fund underfunded city pensions, the murder epidemic, and the Laquan McDonald fiasco (and trial) rendered him unelectable. He has $9 million, would have raised another $15 million, and his opponents were not overly formidable, but one of them would have beaten him in the April 2019 runoff. Full Article...
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