July 20, 2022
SUPERSIZE MATTERS: MARTWICK, LaPOINTE, OLICKAL AMONG AREA'S "BIGGEST WINNERS"
In our contemporary world it is invariably presumed that bigger is always better. Like housing square footage, king-size mattresses, SUV capacity or menu portions. Nobody wants a “Little Mac” or a mini-Whopper on their plate. In political terms, it’s about how big was one’s most recent winning margin. The larger the size of the victory – especially in the realm of a robust 60 to 40 percent to a blowout 75 to 25 percent – the safer is a politician’s job and the less encouraged are future opponents. As set forth in the chart, two area Democratic state legislators really bulked-up their numbers. State Senator Rob Martwick (D-10) surged from 52.9 percent in the 2020 primary to 66.8 percent on June 28, and state Representative Lindsey LaPointe (D-19) leaped from 42.5 percent in 2020 to 76.1 percent. Attached is a CHART with the results in legislative primary contests. Full Article...
July 13, 2022
SLEW OF "BIGGEST LOSERS" AND "LOSING STEPPINGSTONE INCUMBENTS" EMERGE FROM 2022 PRIMARY
Elections have consequences. And the obvious corollary is that losing an election has both personal and political consequences. And that defeat, especially as it applies to a “steppingstone” officeholder – an incumbent trying to upgrade to a more powerful office without risking the current office – usually portends future problems. There are four causations for defeat: (1) A superior opponent; (2) an inferior campaign; (3) previously unknown but now unconcealed flaws and baggage; and (4) bad positioning or mis-positioning on key issues. Here are the “Biggest Losers” in the June 28 Democratic primary election. They are Martinez, Villegas, Steele, Valencia, Stoneback and Willis. Attached is a CHART listing "Losing 2022 Steppingstone Incumbents. Full Article...
July 6, 2022
"WOKE" LEFTISTS SWEEP, AS DO TRUMP ENDORSEES IN JUNE 28 PRIMARY
The new political reality in Illinois and the nation can be succinctly summarized in this maxim: “The lower does the Democratic primary turnout go, the higher will the percentage of the woke vote grow.” With turnout just over 20 percent on June 28, candidates of the progressive Left swept a lot of contests that they would not have won in a 30 percent turnout. It’s the obverse for Republicans: The higher the turnout, the greater the enthusiasm among the pro-Trump fringe base. Downstate farmer Darren Bailey, who was at 36 percent in the polls 2 weeks out, swept to a massive 57.7 percent win, getting 454,068 votes, more than double the combined vote for Jesse Sullivan, 123,156, and Richard Irvin, 117,276. Trump endorsed Bailey. The array of Democratic aspirants can be categorized as Most-Woke (MW), Least-Woke (LW), Over-Woke (OW) and Asleep (A). The MW won three-quarters of the primaries, the LW four, all men over a woman. An OW lost. The Republicans were Most-Trump (MT) and Least-Trump (LT), with MT sweeping and a Likely-Most-Trump (LMT) Democrat losing. See CHART of congressional district votes at end of article. Full Article...
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