July 6, 2022

The new political reality in Illinois and the nation can be succinctly summarized in this maxim: “The lower does the Democratic primary turnout go, the higher will the percentage of the woke vote grow.” With turnout just over 20 percent on June 28, candidates of the progressive Left swept a lot of contests that they would not have won in a 30 percent turnout.

It’s the obverse for Republicans: The higher the turnout, the greater the enthusiasm among the pro-Trump fringe base. Downstate farmer Darren Bailey, who was at 36 percent in the polls 2 weeks out, swept to a massive 57.7 percent win, getting 454,068 votes, more than double the combined vote for Jesse Sullivan, 123,156, and Richard Irvin, 117,276. Trump endorsed Bailey.

The array of Democratic aspirants can be categorized as Most-Woke (MW), Least-Woke (LW), Over-Woke (OW) and Asleep (A). The MW won three-quarters of the primaries, the LW four, all men over a woman. An OW lost. The Republicans were Most-Trump (MT) and Least-Trump (LT), with MT sweeping and a Likely-Most-Trump (LMT) Democrat losing.

GOVERNOR (R): Abraham Lincoln once remarked that politicians cannot “fool all the people all of the time.”  Aurora mayor Richard Irvin, in what has to be one of Illinois’ most breathtaking collapses, despite $50 million from billionaire Ken Griffin, proved that his fakery could fool just 14.9 percent of Republican voters. The other 85.1 saw Irvin as an opportunistic fraud. And they saw Sullivan as non-alternative, and his pro-life focus got him 15.6 percent.

J.B. Pritzker and his DGA and DPI allies chipped-in another $30 million for TV ads and mailers attacking Bailey (MT) as “too conservative” because he was pro-gun, anti-abortion, pro-Trump and anti-COVID mandates. That established his bona fides. The Republican base, just over 40 percent in IL, loved it. But note that the statewide Democratic primary vote topped Republicans’ by 828,933-787,207.

Democrats clearly have an “enthusiasm deficiency” among the non-woke. A June 21 Fabrizio poll had Pritzker up 50-43 over Bailey. Eighteen weeks out from Nov. 8, Pritzker is already running anti-Bailey/protect abortion TV ads. Pritzker will win, but by less than expected.

SECRETARY OF STATE (D): Anna Valencia (MW), who based her campaign for SOS – a post which handles driver’s licenses, license plate and incorporations – by focusing on abortion rights near the end of the campaign. She lost 427,102-277,754 to Alexi Giannoulias (LW). Valencia got 34.3 percent. She lost Chicago 122,494-96,050 and the suburbs 123,848-62,320, fared poorly in African-American areas and got crushed Downstate.

ASSESSOR (D): Fritz Kaegi did not bungle his re-nomination, winning 234,678-203,114, with 53.6 percent. Opponent Kari Steele (MW) got $1 million from a union, and ran ads attacking Kaegi for giving tax breaks to Trump Tower while promising equity in tax assessments. She did not capture the Left’s or Black voters imagination, like Kim Foxx did in 2020. Kaegi won Chicago 125,505-122,260, the suburbs 114,306-87,192 and the liberal suburban bastions Oak Park and Evanston.

STATE SENATOR (D): After shaky performances for re-nomination and re-election in 2020, Rob Martwick (LW) convincingly beat cop Erin Jones (LMT) 12,780-6,621, or 65.9 percent. It is a breakthrough win for the senator, who won Chicago 11,297-6,028, getting 68.7 percent in the 45th Ward, 67.9 in the 38th, and 57.4 in the cop-heavy 41st Ward. He won the suburbs 1,614-652, getting 71.3 percent. Jones was FOP’s top priority, and FOP is very MT – and Jones refused to disclose her 2020 choice, making her a LMT. Martwick faces re-election in 2024.

STATE REPS (D): Lindsey LaPointe (MW), a 24/7 campaigning machine, demolished Tina Wallace (LW) 8,258-2,752 percent, getting 75.1 percent in the 45th Ward. Mike Kelly (LW) squeaked-out a 5,949-5,290 win over Michael Rabbitt (MW), mainly on the basis of a 522-vote margin in the 39th Ward. Denyse Wang Stoneback (OW), who voted against the 2021 gun bill because it was NOT strict enough, lost to Kevin Olickal (MW) 5,074-4,470. And Kathleen Willis, a longtime Mike Madigan flunky, lost in her Elmwood Park-district 2,453-2,254 to Norma Hernandez.

COUNTY COMMISSIONER: Matt Podgorski (R) won his party’s 9th District nomination in a 12,727-2,746-2,389 blowout, and Maggie Trevor (MW) beat Sam Kukadia (LW) 8,907-7,001 for the Dems.  Incumbent Luis Arroyo Jr. (LW) lost badly – 7,539-4,518 – to Anthony Quezada (MW).

3RD DISTRICT (D): This new Latino-influenced congressional seat extends from Logan Square in the east to Wheaton in the west. The presumption was that the city base of Delia Ramirez (MW) would be outvoted in the primary by the more moderate base of Alderman Gilbert Villegas (LW), racking up votes in his 36th Ward, close-in western suburbs and northwest suburbs. That presumption was wrong.

Ramirez stomped Villegas 33,194-12,066, racking-up a 65.5 percent blow-out win in a 50,601 turnout, Villegas had anticipated a 75-80,000 turnout. Ramirez was endorsed by leftwing national politicians, local socialist alderpersons and 11 labor unions. She carried Chicago 23,058-8,718, winning 9 wards, including the 38th Ward, lost Villegas’s home 36th Ward by just 1,607-989, and won the suburbs 2,332-1,045. She even defeated Iris Martinez for state central committeewoman.

Villegas’s thumping loss has implications for 2023, when he faces re-election. He also lost for state central committeeman (3rd District) to Omar Aquino.

6TH DISTRICT (D): A longtime incumbent can withstand a scandal, but not a 2-year incumbent. Marie Newman (MW) beat anti-abortion incumbent Dan Lipinski in 2020, but then tanked after it was revealed she offered a staff job to a primary foe to quit the race. Fellow incumbent Sean Casten (LW) beat her 43,707-18,759, a blowout 67.5 percent.

1ST DISTRICT (D):  The Jackson Dynasty is back, just 10 years after Congressman Jesse Jr. and wife Sandi Jackson disgraced it and were jailed for federal campaign law violations. Jonathan Jackson (LW), one of Jesse Sr.’s six children, won the nomination for Bobby Rush’s open seat with 28.8 percent of the vote.  Jackson beat 3 women, all MWs, who aggregated 45.5 percent.

7TH DISTRICT (D): Danny Davis’s (LW, but not by much) political shelf life is about to expire. Onetime social worker Davis, age 80, has been in office for 40 years – 26 in Congress, 12 as alderman and 6 as county commissioner. He eked out a 34,973-30,447 win (52.2 percent) over Kina Collins (MW). Davis won’t run in 2024.

15TH DISTRICT (R): The Democratic legislature remapped Republicans Mary Miller (MT) and Rodney Davis (LT) into the same southwest Downstate district. Trump endorsed Miller, a first-termer. The result was predictable: Miller easily beat Davis 63,958-47,082, getting 57.6 percent

17TH DISTRICT (R): Trumpster Esther Joy King (MT) lost 52-48 to incumbent Cheri Boustos (D) in 2020. The far northwestern seat is now open. Democrats nominated ex-weathercaster Eric Sorensen over Litesa Wallace. Republican turnout was 44,266 and Democrats’ 38,127.
This seat will flip.

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