July 29, 2009
"KINGS OF POP" RATED AMONG NW SIDE POLITICIANS
Hispanic political power in the Chicago area, already paltry, has suffered a "brownout." Hispanic population surged 24% from 2000 to 2007, but has peaked -- for three reasons: (1) The economic crisis has dampened immigration, especially from Mexico. With fewer jobs, the incentive to migrate has vanished. (2) The housing market paralysis has stalled demographic change. Hispanics were flooding into the Northwest Side. No longer. Most Chicago foreclosures are of Hispanics. (3) Migration of Hispanics is out of Chicago, to suburbs like Cicero-Berwyn, Franklin Park-Stone Park-Melrose Park, Bensenville-Addison, Waukegan, Aurora, Elgin, Des Plaines-Wheeling, and Bolingbrook-Romeoville. Chicago's Hispanic population is now around 750,000, but that's just 16% of the overall population -- not enough to influence the election of the next mayor. A Hispanic will likely keep the city clerk's job -- probably Ald. Ray Suarez (31st) -- if incumbent Miguel del Valle becomes city college chancellor. But the west side 26th Ward, held by Ald. Billy Ocasio until he quit to take a state job, could elect a white alderman in 2011. Joe Berrios has a good shot at county assessor in 2010. Two new Hispanic-leaning -- but not quite Hispanic-majority -- congressional districts could be created for 2012. A Hispanic could be elected lieutenant governor in 2010. Full Article...
July 22, 2009
"PLAYING THE PERCENTAGES": KIRK LIKELY WINNER IN 2010
Numbers don't lie. Democrats have won 13 of 21 US Senate elections in Illinois since 1950, and 9 of the last 10. When Democrats run a Downstater, they won 7 of 7. But on the six occasions when Democrats nominated a white Chicagoan, the Republican won every time. And, in 2010, the Democrats are likely to nominate Alexi Giannoulias, a white Chicagoan -- and that makes Republican US Rep Mark Kirk the favorite to win Barack Obama's former seat. Kirk is a RINO -- Republican in name only. But he has the percentages on his side. To win statewide, a Republican needs to hold the Democrat's margin in Cook County to under 400,000 votes, win Downstate by at least 350,000, and win the collar counties by more than 125,000. The last Republican to accomplish that feat was Peter Fitzgerald in 1998, and he won by 98,545 votes -- against flawed black incumbent Carol Moseley Braun. The potential 2010 Democratic field includes Giannoulias, the state treasurer, plus Chris Kennedy and Cheryle Jackson, who is black. Kirk has cleared out the Republican field. As a "moderate," Kirk will dampen the usual Democratic margin in the Cook County suburbs; as a Republican, he'll sweep Downstate, and run well in the collar counties. Make Kirk the favorite. Full Article...
July 15, 2009
SUBTEXT, NO PRETEXT, SPURS MADIGAN'S EXIT
Here's an explanation as to why Lisa Madigan and Roland Burris bailed and took a pass on a 2010 bid for Illinois governor/senator: The context belies the pretext and explains the subtext. Say what? The pretext is the excuse. Madigan said she "loves her job" as attorney general. Burris said he wanted to take care of the "people's business," and not fundraise. The subtext is the reality. Given the FUBAR (F---- Up Beyond All Repair) condition of Illinois' finances, and the failure to date of "Messiah Obama" to cure economic doldrums, 2010 appears to be a Republican comeback year. Madigan could probably beat Gov. Quinn, and likely win the election, but then she would have to raise taxes. Better to wait until 2014. As for Burris, with just $20,000 raised, he's a loser, and he acknowledged it. The context, of course, is the 2010 political enviroment, which could produce an anti-Democratic backlash. However, state Comptroller Dan Hynes is chomping at the bit to run for governor, and he could beat Quinn in the primary. His dilemma: Does he run as the anti- or pro-tax candidate? Full Article...
July 8, 2009
"TODD UNDERTOW" PUTS COMMISSIONERS AT RISK IN 2010
It's the blind leading the blind; the dumb following the dumb. It is oxymoronic to tab Cook County Board president Todd Stroger as a "leader." But he has a gaggle of "followers" among the 17 commissioners -- at least 9 "Stroger Stooges." Found on this website is a 2008-09 COOK COUNTY BOARD VOTE CHART, which details key sales tax and budgetary votes. The sales tax hike passed 9-8, the repeal passed 12-3-2, and the override was sustained (11-4-2). The Toddler's "stooges" include Democratic commissioners Collins, Steele, Butler, Beavers, Sims, Moreno, and, to a lesser extent, Daley, Murphy and Suffredin. All face political problems in 2010, and some could retire. Of the 5 Republicans, all are threatened, but not because of their implacable opposition to Stroger; instead, Cook County has been trending inexorably Democratic, and they could lose in their suburban districts. Of incumbents Peraica, Gorman, Goslin and Schneider, only Silvestri is safe. Full Article...
July 1, 2009
"DIVERSITY," OR LACK OF "DIVERSITY," WORRIES PARTIES FOR GOVENOR, COUNTY BOARD PRESIDENT IN 2010
Is political "diversity" a necessity or a liability? For Democrats, how many minorities and women must be on their 2010 county and state ticket to be politically correct? For Republicans, the issue is how few can they offer and still be competitive? With at least three black Democrats seeking the Cook County Board presidency in 2010 -- incumbent Todd Stroger, Ald. Toni Preckwinkle, and Court Clerk Dorothy Brown...and perhaps even U.S. Rep. Danny Davis -- a single white contender will win the nomination. The pantheon of "Great White Hopes" include MWRD pres. Terry O'Brien, Sheriff Tom Dart, and Assessor Jim Houlihan. If just one runs, he wins. The white Democratic committeemen are vigorously trying to limit the field. For Republicans, there are no "Sarah Palin"-like women available to run for lieutenant governor or any other statewide office, with the exception of 2006 loser Judy Baar Topinka, who will run for comptroller. An all-white, all-male ticket is in the offing. It will be Kirk Dillard, Matt Murphy, Bob Shillerstrom or Bill Brady for governor, Joe Birkett for attorney general, and Dan Rutherford for treasurer; for lieutenant governor, Brad Cole and Dave Winters are running. The key question: Will voter revulsion over Democratic state and county stupidity and corruption outweigh voter distaste toward the Republicans? Full Article...
Previous Articles