July 8, 2009
"TODD UNDERTOW" PUTS COMMISSIONERS AT RISK IN 2010

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

It's the blind leading the blind. It's the dumb following the dumb. It's beyond moronic.

But, quite incredibly, of the 17 county commissioners, six Democrats -- five black and one Hispanic -- have allied themselves with beleaguered Cook County Board President Todd Stroger and will bear the stigma of running for re-election in 2010 as a "Stroger Stooge."

When the board, at Stroger's behest, passed the 1 percent sales tax hike in March of 2008, nine commissioners voted yes. (See adjacent vote chart.) The "Todd Squad" includes black commissioners Earlean Collins, Robert Steele, Jerry Butler, Bill Beavers and Deborah Sims, Hispanic commissioner Joseph Mario Moreno and white commissioners Joan Murphy, John Daley and Larry Suffredin. The tax hike was supposed to raise $400 million annually in new revenue.

When the board voted 12-3 to repeal the hike in May, the "Todd Squad" dwindled to Beavers, Butler and Steele, with Collins and Sims absent.

When Stroger vetoed the repeal, necessitating a three-fourths vote (13 of 17) of the commissioners to override, the "Toddler" prevailed. The vote in June was 11-4, with Beavers, Butler, Sims and Moreno voting to sustain Stroger's veto and Collins and Steele voting present. The repeal was two votes short.

Now, fueled by voter wrath, the proverbial Sword of Damocles is set to fall -- but not only on the "Stroger Stooges." At least eight of the 12 Democratic incumbents will face difficult primaries if they choose to run. Beavers, Butler and Collins are likely to retire. The credibility of Collins, Moreno, Sims and Steele, all of whom prevaricated, vacillated and then capitulated to the "Toddler," has imploded. Murphy and Suffredin, who were "enablers" for the tax hike, look like fools.

Moreno voted for the sales tax hike, then for its repeal, and then to sustain Stroger's veto. What did Stroger promise him? Moreno, a profile in erratic opportunism, is a disgrace to good government. He will face serious primary opposition from Len Dominguez in his heavily Mexican-American Southwest Side Chicago district, which also includes Cicero.

Steele, who inherited his mother's county board seat in 2006, voted for the sales tax, opposed the repeal, and then voted present on the veto override. That's total cowardice. Steele has been ailing in recent months, and he may not run for a second term in his West Side district.

Collins, a state senator from 1977 to 1998, draws a state pension of $75,912 atop her county salary of $85,000. She voted for the sales tax hike, was absent for the repeal, and then voted present on the override. That's "public evasion," not "public service." She makes $150,000 a year at the taxpayers' trough, but she doesn't have the courage to show up or vote on tough issues.

Murphy, with dubious wisdom, proposed a 2-cent sales tax hike in 2007, which would have raised $1 billion in county revenues. Just imagine the hordes of payrollers who could have been hired with a $4 billion county budget. She voted for the 2008 tax hike, then for the repeal and the override. That means that her instinct for survival overcame her previous stupidity. She can expect opposition in 2010, most likely from John Fairman, a trustee in Justice.

Suffredin, of Evanston, provided the critical ninth vote to enact the sales tax hike. He extracted a promise to create a new hospital governing board, effectively ending the board president's control over county health hiring. But Suffredin, who lost a 2008 bid for state's attorney, getting only 18.1 percent of the vote, is trying to make amends, backing the repeal and override. He may run for board president, opening his seat.

The key to survival among the Republicans, who hold five of the 17 seats, is not their implacable opposition to Stroger and tax hikes; instead, it's demographics. Cook County's suburbs are becoming relentlessly more Democratic. That puts Republican incumbents Pete Silvestri, Gregg Goslin, Tony Peraica, Liz Gorman and Tim Schneider at risk. All won unimpressively in 2006. If 2010 brings another Democratic tsunami, some or all could lose.

Here's an early analysis of developing board races:

12th District (Central Northwest side, 47th Ward): Two-term incumbent Democrat Forrest Claypool is retiring from politics, forgoing a run against Stroger. The hot rumor is that 47th Ward Alderman Gene Schulter, who also is the ward Democratic committeeman, will run for Claypool's spot. That would entail a $50,000-a-year pay cut, but Schulter, age 61, may want a change after 34 years in the City Council. The Ravenswood/Lincoln Square 47th Ward dominates the 12th District, so Schulter can dictate Claypool's successor. Other possible 47th Ward candidates are attorney Dan Farley, who is the son of a former state senator, and Tom O'Donnell, who is an aide to Sheriff Tom Dart.

9th District (Far Northwest Side and close-in suburbs): Republican Silvestri, the village president of Elmwood Park, is an early favorite to win a fourth term. He won with 54 percent of the vote in 1994, 55.8 percent in 1998, 53.8 percent in 2002 and 56.7 percent in 2006. There is a sizable base Democratic vote in the district, and 2006 loser Jodi Biacalana is poised to run again.

But Silvestri has an ace in the hole. He is allied with the Republican organization of Alderman Brian Doherty (41st) and state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20) in the north end of the district, and he and state Representative Skip Saviano (R-77) have a potent political operation in the Elmwood Park area. All of those Republicans have a nonaggression pact with the two Democrats who dominate the 36th Ward, in the south end of the district, Alderman and Committeeman Bill Banks and state Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10). Saviano once was an aide to DeLeo.

In 2006 Biacalana, who lives in the 36th Ward, won her base over Silvestri by just 229 votes; Silvestri won the 41st Ward by 3,661 votes and Norwood Park Township by 1,330 votes.

The outlook: As long as the "Banks/DeLeo Machine" dominates the 36th Ward, and as long as Democrats remain enfeebled in the 41st Ward, Silvestri is unbeatable.

17th District (Park Ridge, Des Plaines, Mount Prospect and a narrow corridor to Lemont, Orland Park and Tinley Park): Incumbent Gorman's husband was a business partner of Ed Vrdolyak, and there is some negative fallout attaching to her. She was first elected unopposed in 2002, and she was reelected in 2006 with 55.5 percent of the vote. She is the Orland Township Republican committeeman, she briefly was the Republican county chairman, and she has been feuding with Peraica.

A likely 2010 Democratic candidate for the seat is Dr. Victor Forys, a Polish American who got 11.7 percent of the vote in the 2009 Democratic primary for the 5th U.S. House District. If Forys can assemble both a geographic (north versus south) and ethnic coalition, he could win. Other candidates include Orland Park Trustee Jim Dodge and RTA Board member Dennis Cook. Well known Orland Park Mayor Dan McLaughlin also is a possibility, and he would be favored in a primary. The outlook: Gorman has huge problems.

16th District (Berwyn, Riverside, Brookfield, LaGrange, Lyons): Peraica was the losing Republican candidate for board president in 2006, getting 46.5 percent of the vote, and for state's attorney in 2008, getting 25.3 percent. Despite his consistent anti-tax and anti-Stroger stances, Peraica remains a much disliked, polarizing politician with a legion of enemies in both parties.

In 2006 Peraica eked out an 845-vote (50.6 percent) win over Democrat Bill Gomolinski, who now is a judge. He won in 2002 by 4,565 votes (53.1 percent) over Melrose Park Mayor Ron Serpico. Peraica, who also is the Lyons Township Republican committeeman, won the job in 2002 with just 37.6 percent of the vote in a three-man field, and he barely beat Mike LaPidus in 2006, winning by 96 votes.

"I'm running for reelection as commissioner and committeeman," Peraica said, adding that he is undecided about whether to launch another bid for board president.

For 2010, Peraica expects a primary challenge from Berwyn Township Republican Committeeman Tony Castrogiovanni, who got only 383 votes (4.5 percent of the total cast) in the 2009 Berwyn mayor's race. Possible Democratic candidates include Countryside Mayor Robert Conrad and McCook Mayor Jeff Tobolski. Former Berwyn mayor Mike O'Connor, who lost in 2009, may run as the Green Party candidate.  The outlook: Peraica is favored in a three-way race. Otherwise, it's a toss-up.

15th District (northwest suburban Hanover, Schaumburg and Elk Grove townships): Schneider upset 32-year incumbent Carl Hansen in the 2006 primary, and he beat Democrat Jim Dasakis by just 2,758 votes, getting 52.3 percent of the vote. The area is trending Democratic. The outlook: Schneider is in jeopardy.

14th District (New Trier, Northfield, Wheeling and Palatine townships): Incumbent Gregg Goslin is obscure and inoffensive, and he won with 53.9 percent of the vote in 2006. The outlook: The district is trending Democratic, and a credible female Democrat could beat Goslin.