MAY 28, 2025
"SHELF LIFE, AMBITION, OPPORTUNITY ABOUND IN 2026 ILLINOIS SENATE, HOUSE CONTESTS

It’s one thing to be getting old and quite another to have gotten old. Having political power is not age-defying. The question is when and how does one choose to go out? Three antiquated IL Democrats – senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D-9) and (presumably) congressman Danny Davis (D-7), who are, respectively, age 80, 81 and 83, are bailing and not seeking re-election in 2006.

For them an exit is sort of a disappointment because they didn’t achieve their most cherished goals. Durbin spent 30 years in the Senate, plus 14 in the House, but never became Majority Leader (D); Schakowsky spent 28 years in the House where she was a Nancy Pelosi crony, plus six as a state rep, but never made it to the Senate, and Davis spent 30 years in the House, plus seven as county commissioner and 11 as alderman, but never got his dream job, which is mayor.

All should be commended. They got into an important office, stayed there for a generation, were smart enough to get re-elected, but for various reasons never moved-up to a more important office. It’s called being risk-averse: If you don’t take chances, you don’t get no rewards. Durbin could have easily won for governor in 2002; instead, we got Blagojevich. Schakowsky could have had a Cabinet post under Obama or Biden.

DON’T LET THE GRASS GROW UNDER YOUR FEET. Opportunity comes not to those who wait but rather to those who risk. A gaggle of state Democrats with big egos and an excess of pent-up ambition see great opportunity in 2026, especially in congressional contests. As set forth in the attached CHART there are three major candidates (D) for Durbin’s seat plus an impeached ex-governor (R) and up to a dozen in each of the four open House seats. In Schakowsky’s 9th District there have been two congresspersons in the last 77 years, in Davis’s 7th just two in the last 55 years. The 8th and 2nd would not be open BUT FOR the fact that incumbents Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly are running for senator. Seize the opportunity and have a seat for life because there will be no second chance soon.

U.S. SENATOR: Illinois’ senators in modern history have served on the average of three terms (18 years). Durbin was the exception because IL has become so habitually Democratic. Tammy Duckworth (D), age 57, was elected in 2016, and will be around for another 20 years. And so will whoever wins Durbin’s seat. Krishnasmoorthi, age 51, was born in India and is a Harvard Law grad; he won Duckworth’s House seat in 2016. Kelly, age 69, is a Black woman from Chicago’s South Shore and south suburbs and knows 2026 is her last and only chance to move-on-up.

Stratton, age 59, is Illinois lieutenant governor because Democrats are the identity politics party and JB Pritzker (White man) needed a Black woman for his LG. She has been endorsed by Pritzker and Duckworth. The governor is expected to seek a third term and will spend whatever it takes to nominate Stratton, who has $97,373 cash-on-hand as of March 31. Krishamoorthi is a prolific fundraiser and has close to $19 million on-hand.   Kelly has $1.6 million on-hand.

No candidate (other than Blagojevich) has much statewide recognition but the primary is on March 17 and the petition filing deadline is Nov. 3, so the Big Three need to be on-the-air after Labor Day to introduce themselves in the Chicago media market and then have saturation ads after New Year’s. Initial polling indicates a huge undecided, which is not atypical. An April 29 PPP poll had it 20/13/8 for Krishnamoorthi/Stratton/Kelly with 43 undecided. An April 28 GBAO poll had it 21/13/8/30.

Geography, race and gender are key dynamics. Two-thirds of the primary vote (D) will come from Chicago/Cook County and a third of that from Black wards/townships. Women voters will be 55 percent. Will two women divide the gender vote? Will two Black women divide the racial vote? Turnout will be close to 1 million and at least $50 million will be spent. Early prediction: Stratton, with JB’s money, will be all over the media by late summer and Kelly will fade quickly. She has no real base. Raja will counter with his “Call me Raja” ads. Both will be bashing Trump, not each other. In the end Stratton will narrowly win, because this is Illinois, and JB will make sure of that.

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Two myths surround this contest. First, that Krishnamoorthi can hand off the seat to another Asia-Indian candidate because of a large voting concentration in Schaumburg/Streamwood/Bartlett in northwest Cook County. Not true. According to the 2020 census Asians account for 14 percent; Whites are 54.4-percent and Latinos 23.8.

The second myth is that a Republican can’t win. Krishnamoorthi won with 57.1 percent in 2024 and Trump LOST the district by 53-/46, up from 57/41 in 2020. The 8th includes parts of Cook, DuPage and Kane counties and runs from Geneva and Batavia northward through Carpentersville to Elgin and then eastward through Roselle, Palatine and Hoffman Estates as far as Des Plaines and Rosemont, with Carol Stream and north Wheaton southward. The only Republican thus far is businesswoman Jennifer Davis, who can self-fund.     

The Democrats have a cluttered primary with county commissioner Morrison the frontrunner; he is quickly coalescing party support. State legislators Cristina Castro and Anna Moeller are credible. As for Yasmeen Bankole, a Hanover Park trustee and UNICEF USA exec Sanjyot Dunung – they’re going nowhere. Expect Morrison to win the primary.

7TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Davis has gotten more and more feeble – I mean politically, not necessarily physically – during the past three cycles. His political shelf life has expired. He won the 2020 primary (D) 79,863-18,399 over “democratic socialist” Kina Collins, getting 60.9 percent; he won the 2022 primary 39,230-34,574 over Collins, getting 51.9 percent; and he limped through the 2024 primary 42,248-17,154-15,189, getting 52.4 percent against city treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and Collins.

According to 1st quarter FEC fundraising filings, Davis raised an anemic $8,001 and has $53,761 cash-on-hand. Those are not the kind of numbers a congressman who is on the Ways & Means committee raises if he’s running again. The 7th used to be heavily Black and concentrated on Chicago’s West Side. Now the North and West Loop have gotten upscale and White and the district extends into the western suburbs (Maywood, Hillside, Forest Park), Oak Park and beyond to West Chicago in DuPage. The 7th is now 42.6 percent Black and 29.5 White.

At least seven Black contenders covet the seat including Ford, a longtime state rep; Burnett, 27th Ward alderman since 1995; Forest Park mayor Hoskins; MWRD president Steele and Davis chief-of-staff Romero, along with retreads Collins and Conyears-Ervin.  The sole White is Friedman, a developer who lives in River North; his father is Al Friedman, a well-connected developers and big party donor. 

Collins is the “democratic socialist” aspirant. All contenders have a base and Burnett the most money, but if the 70 percent Black vote is split seven ways then Friedman wins – but only if he does well in Oak Park. Otherwise, Collins could win with 15-18 percent. Burnett starts as frontrunner.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

This column was published in Nadig Newspapers. If you, a friend or a colleague wish to be added to Russ's BUDDY LIST, and be emailed his column every Wednesday morning, email webmaster Joe at Joe@Nadignewspapers.com