April 30, 2025
THREE BLACK DEMOCRATIC WOMEN INSURE KRISHNAMOORTHI U.S. SENATE WIN -- AND BLAGO IS BACK
Numbers usually don’t lie. They can be omitted or manipulated but they cannot be ignored. For U.S. Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) the numbers are 80 and 88, which is his current age and the age he would be in 2032 if he finished another term. Durbin is retiring.
For Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky (D-9) the numbers are 81 and 5/5, which will be her age as of May 26 and the date (May 5) of her annual “Ultimate Women’s Power Lunch” at which she will likely announce her retirement. Toss in 10 or 12, which is the number of candidates who will be running for her seat in 2026
For congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-8) the number is 19, which is how many millions of dollars he has already stashed in his campaign account for his 2026 Senate bid, with plenty more to come. For IL lieutenant governor Juliana Stratton (D) the number is 4, which is the net worth (about $4 billion) of Governor JB Pritzker who has endorsed her for Durbin’s seat and will bankroll her as needed.
For congresswomen Robin Kelly (D-2) and Lauren Underwood (D-14), as well as Stratton, the number is 3, which could be how many Black women are running for senator in the March 17, 2026 Democratic primary, which would thereby guarantee a Krishnamoorthi win.
For the much-maligned former governor and ex-con Rod Blagojevich the number is 0, which represents his chances of getting elected IL senator next year as a pro-Trump Republican. Blago has become a regular Trump-booster and Democrat-basher on FOX News and his hair is again dyed, so you know something is percolating inside his egotistical, narcissistic 68-year old skull.
A really key number is 8/5-11/3, which is the Aug. 5 to Nov. 3 nominating petition circulation period to get on the 2026 ballot. We’re about to enter May 2025 and the 2026 mid-term election is 18 months away -- but the Illinois campaign cycle begin in 3 months. It’s now politics 24/7. How blessed are journalists, consultants, psychiatrists and therapists? Keeps people busy. And the media can begin raking-in those ad dollars.
Another critical number is 7/17-18. That’s the July 17-18 Cook County Democratic Party (CCDP) slatemaking. “We expect to slate (for state offices),” said one top CCDP operative, which means for governor and senator. “There will be no endorsement,” predicted another committeeperson (D), which would mean an “open” primary and allow every committeeperson to soak up maximum dollars from multiple aspirants in exchange for ward/township backing. This for them would be like Christmas/New Year’s/Easter/Thanksgiving rolled into one. It’s Pay-to-Play Pay Day.
And the final number is 850,000, which is the average statewide Democratic primary turnout in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Of those numbers, over half the vote came out of Chicago and Cook County and a quarter from the collar counties.
In a crowded field, about 350,000 is what it will take to win; in a small field or one-on-one it will take 450,000 voters.
And then there’s Rahm Emanuel, who is numberless, still somewhat priceless and not yet forgotten. The ex-mayor and ex-ambassador is itching to run for something – like maybe president in 2028. But Pritzker is a major roadblock and Emanuel, age 65, needs to find some platform NOW. Maybe his number is 2027, which is the year of Chicago’s next mayoral election. There is no doubt that Emanuel would clean Brandon Johnson’s political clock. But his dream scenario would be a run for governor.
U.S. SENATOR: The last really competitive Democrat senate primary was 2004 when then-obscure state senator Barack Obama beat comptroller Dan Hynes. Durbin back in 1996 ran as a centrist Downstater and beat Pat Quinn and then tagged Al Salvi (R) as an “extremist” and got elected – and then again in 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020.
As senator Durbin was more a technician than legislative craftsman and could be depended upon to parrot the Democrats’ anti-Republican, anti-Trump propaganda of the day.
Krishnamoorthi, age 51, a Harvard Law grad, was born in New Delhi and is of Indian ancestry as are a large number of his west suburban (Schaumburg, Streamwood) 8th District constituents, who also provide a huge donor base.
Krishnamoorthi will run as an identity politician, will spend close to $40 million, focus his ads on bashing Trump, and is the early favorite.
Kelly, age 69, was previously the Democratic Party Illinois chair and won the Black-majority South Side/south suburban 2nd District seat after Jesse Jackson Junior’s conviction. This is her last shot. Pritzker lobbied against her being the DPI chair in 2022 and she dropped her bid.
Underwood, age 38, won her very non-White west suburban/exurban 14th District, which wraps around Cook County, in a 2018 upset. She is a registered nurse by profession and is now unbeatable. Eventually, there will likely be only one Black woman running, and that will be Stratton, predicted one committeeperson. Stratton, age 59, is a former South Side state rep close to Toni Preckwinkle.
Combined with JB, that makes her a favorite for county slating – if any. Do Dems really want to enrage their Asian-Indian donors? Expect no slating.
BLAGO IS BACK: Politics is all about quid pro quo – one gives (like money) and one gets (like favors or contracts). Blagojevich was boneheaded enough to think he could extort money for a U.S. Senate appointment, got himself recorded on tape, got convicted in 2012 on 17 counts, spent 10 of his 12-year sentence in the slammer and got pardoned by Trump in Feb. 2020. As for such ethics-challenged luminaries as Ed Burke, Mike Madigan, Ed Vrdolyak, Jesse Jackson Jr. and Luis Arroyo, Democrats pretend they never existed. But Blago does.
There are 2 kinds of politicians: Useful and non-useful. For Republicans, Blago is very useful as he will make Democrats spend and waste money in IL which otherwise would be used in senate races in NC, MI, OH, FL and GA. Blago has near 100 percent name recognition but he should not confuse notoriety with popularity. Blago is even more despised and reviled than Trump in IL, but the ex-gov will still get 40 percent, because voters are funny like that.
He will be the nominee ff Trump endorses him. Just for the hell of it, I’m going to vote for the guy. I admire his resilience in the face of his self-inflicted adversity. Some dumb politicians deserve a second chance.
JB IS MULTI-TASKING: Nobody ever compared Pritzker, age 60, to the Energizer Bunny. He’s more like a turtle. But the consensus in Springfield is that he IS running for re-election as governor in 2026 while running for president in 2028. The governor IS the IL Democratic Party (DPI) as he dumps $12 million of his money into his campaign every 15 months and that is used to pay hundreds of full-time party operatives throughout the state.
JB has some hard decisions to make in the next 3 months, one of which is who will be his LG, the post Stratton is vacating. We know it won’t be a White guy – or any guy for that matter. The choices, according to sources, are Underwood, comptroller Susana Mendoza or Kelly – which would advantageously get her out of the Senate race.
The next LG could move-on-up sometime before 2030. If JB quits, there would be a veritable stampede of Democrats – Emanuel, Mendoza, Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, treasurer Mike Frerichs and AG Kwame Raoul. That would not be helpful for JB’s national plans.
SCHAKOWSKY HITS THE EXIT: The 9th Congressional District used to be known as the “Jewish seat” back in the 1950s and 1960s. It was nestled on the north Lakefront and its congressman was Sidney Yates (D) who served from 1948 to 1998 (with a 2-year hiatus after losing for Senator in 1962). In remaps from the 1980s onward the district moved north to Evanston, then west to Skokie, Niles and Park Ridge and now as far as Wauconda and Long Grove in Lake and McHenry counties. And it lost the Lakefront from Lakeview south.
The 1998 primary featured Schakowsky, an Evanston state rep, versus 26-year state senator Howie Carroll, from the West Rogers Park 50th Ward; also running was a rich upstart named JB Pritzker. It was a battle of geography and base and Schakowsky carried her Evanston/Skokie base 2-1 while getting 30 percent in Chicago; Carroll and Pritzker split the other 70 percent. Jewish turnout was intense. The result was a 48/34/18 Schakowsky win.
The already-formed but unannounced 2026 field consists of Evanston Mayor Dan Biss, Glenview state Senator Laura Fine – both Jewish – and Skokie county commissioner Josina Morita; a fourth major contender is LGBTQ Chicago state Rep Kelly Cassidy of the 48th Ward. Alderpersons Matt Martin (47th) and Maria Hadden (49th) are also in the mix. Lots of identity politics at play.
But the really off-the-wall candidate is “influencer” Kat Abughazeleh, a 26-year old Gen-Z’er born to a Palestinian immigrant father and Texas mother.
She has 233,000 followers and 5.4 million “likes” on TikTok and 80,000 “subscribers” and 2.4 million “views” on YouTube. Do these fans vote? Do they donate? We’ll see. Apparently, she was able to raise about $378,000, according to published reports. Some call her the “next AOC.”
Biss starts as the favorite.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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