November 27, 2024
CTU GETS CLOBBERED, LOSING 6 OF 9 CHICAGO SCHOOL BOARD RACES

One proverb proclaims that “Blessed are those who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed.” The obverse would be, especially as applied to Chicago Public Schools (CPS), that “Cursed are those who expect something” – like “quality” education – “for they shall most certainly be disappointed.”

No one can argue with the lofty and Utopian goals of the Chicago Teachers Union. Everyone wants good education for their kids, right? It’s its outright arrogance that pisses people off.

The union, without question, always expects something – like higher pay, smaller classrooms, more time off, no accountability  (audits, anyone?) – and they are never disappointed.

The CTU, where Mayor Brandon Johnson was once an operative/organizer, will always deliver for their dues-paying members – like their new contract.

Except on Nov. 5. Whereas the CTU expects the mayor and CPS bureaucracy to be obsequious and compliant, voters thought otherwise. Instead of electing CPS-endorsed toadies to the newly-created Chicago School Board (CSB), and after $1.7 million of CTU “messaging,” Chicago voters DID NOT deliver. In what was supposed to be a CTU slam-dunk in ten of ten district contests the CTU candidates won just 4 of 10.

There are 634 public schools in Chicago and 111 private charter schools with 323,251 and 51,000 students, respectively. They spend, respectively, 30K and reportedly about half of that, per child. The CTU/Johnson mentality is to eliminate the competition – no more tax-funded private charter schools. Screw em.  The parents’ mentality is to kill perceived indoctrination – no more America-is-racist crap, no more sub-par standardized test results in math, reading or English. K-12 means a graduate goes on to college with a Level 12 proficiency, not a 7.

As set forth in the chart, a CTUer won in the 1st, 2nd, and 7th districts, a pro-school choice, pro-charter school or independent won in the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th and 10th districts, and a pro-CTUer was unopposed in the 5th district. Under the new law the CSB will expand from 7 to 20 members in 2025 and the current ten districts will divide north/south into 20 districts for the 2026 election, plus a citywide-elected president.

This column prides itself on its expertise on number-crunching, and the 2024 numbers bode-ill for the CTU in 2026 – and, by extension, Johnson in 2027. Chicago’s population is 2,746,388 and the registered voters (RVs) are 1,498,873 with a November turnout of 1,018,350, which was 67.9 percent. As set forth in the chart, 807,907 Chicagoans voted in the CSB races, which is 54 percent of the RVs. The cumulative city vote for all 10 CTU candidates was 334,622, which is 22.3 percent of the RVs and 32.8 percent of the turnout. That, for CTU, was pathetic.

“This was a tremendous victory” for pro-choicers, said Juan Rangel, director of the Urban Center, a political operation/PAC dedicated to ousting Johnson in 2027. “Wait ‘til 2026,” he proclaimed, predicting that the CTU will get clobbered again when all 20 districts are on the ballot. To be sure, Johnson has a brief window until Dec. 31 to appoint 10 CSB members and a president, all of whom will be CTU flunkies, who will serve with the elected board until the end of 2026. The appointees must each live in the current districts and also in the half where the elected member does not live.

Each of the 10 districts has a population of about 265,000, the equivalent of 5.5 wards; when cut in half by the state legislature in 2025 each of the 20 districts will be 132,000 and 2.75 wards. For example, the far Northwest Side 1st District, running west of Cicero and north of Belmont, contains the 41st (31 precincts), 38th (25), 45th (29), 39th (28) and 30th (22) wards, plus chunks of the 29th, 31st, 33rd and 50th (8 precincts) wards, for a total of 143 precincts. That will be cut to about 75 precincts each in Districts 1A and 1B for 2026. 

The Nov. 5 1st District winner was pro-CTU Jennifer Custer, who lives in the southeast corner (1B). So the new 1A will be the entire 41st, which voted 53 percent for Trump, the north half of the 39th (Sauganash, Edgebrook, Forest Glen), which voted 36 percent for Trump and the north 2/3rds of the 45th (Gladstone Park, Jefferson Park), which voted 35 percent for Trump. This should be anti-CTU territory but Johnson will appoint a pro-CTU member from 1A to serve 2025-26, who will have a head start for the election.

1B will include the 45th’s Portage Park, the 30th’s Old Irving and north Belmont-Cragin, the 39th’s Albany Park/Mayfair, and all of the 38th Ward, which went 45 percent for Trump, stretching from Six Corners through Dunning to the Cumberland Corridor. This will be a Woke/Left district and Custer could be challenged by a Far Lefty. A lot depends upon whether there’s any money in it.

The new law does not set any CSB compensation yet, a situation which constipates every politician. You can’t work for free. The 2025-26 CSB can provide relief by passing a pay rate for the 2027-30 CSB; the number 60K is being bandied about. In a $9.9 billion 2024 CPS budget, which has a deficit of $500 million, an extra $1.2 mil is peanuts. Forget about another mil for offices and staff. Those elected in 2026 have a 4-year term.

Another change effective 2026 is runoffs. Five of the 10 district CSB victors won without a majority – in the 2nd, 4th, 6th, 9th and 10th. Rhymefest Smith got just 32.2 percent in the far Southeast Side 10th. Effective 2026 there will be a December runoff between the top 2 November finishers if nobody gets a majority.

Which leads us into the 2027 mayoral race, with the election set for Feb. 2027 and a likely runoff in April. The presumption is that the bumbling Johnson will run again, and presumably finish 1 out of 2 in February and then move on to the runoff. A recent Chicago Tribune editorial  ripped Johnson for being “obsessed” with finding new revenue sources (taxes) like the cloud business tax hike instead of cutting payroll or programs. This Socialistic mentality may not be viable in 2027. And Johnson, like predecessor Lori Lightfoot, has made no attempt to govern beyond his base. The mission is to milk this city dry.

The 2026 CSB election will be an immediate prelude to the 2027 mayoral and any candidate for CSB president will have an incredible opportunity to positively define themselves and build name ID. The ones to watch are the Urban Center’s Rangel, a Mexican-American who will be funded by the same Republican sources who backed Paul Vallas in 2023. Rangel noted at 42 percent of non-Puerto Rican Latino Chicagoans backed Trump on Nov. 5. I asked Rangel if he voted for Trump: “No comment.” You KNOW he’s running for CSB president in 2026.

There will be at least 3 or 4 Black candidates running for board president, but the one to watch is Ellen Rosenfeld, wife of 47th Ward (Ravenswood, Northcenter) Dem committeeperson Paul Rosenfeld, an astute party insider. Ellen Rosenfeld won the 6TH DISTRICT CSB seat, which comprises the mid-North Lakefront 32nd, 43rd, 44th, 46th, 47th and 48th wards, with 44.7 percent, beating the CTU and school-choice candidates. Rosenfeld is being quietly groomed to run for mayor. Think of it: She will have 2 years to craft an image as a thoughtful, non-partisan educator and critic of school Woke/Leftism. She can run for CSB president and raise $10 mil from Democratic sources.

And then, as a liberal White female Lakefronter segue seamlessly into the mayoral race. Forget about incoming state’s attorney Eileen O’Neill Burke. Johnson won 319,481-292,033 in 2023, and the CTUers in 2024 got 334,622. Johnson has a ceiling, and it gets lower by the day. I would not be surprised if Rosenfeld for mayor would be one of the names floated around in the future.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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