April 10, 2024
CONGRESSMAN DANNY DAVIS "GOES AROUND THE BLOCK" AGAIN; LOPEZ BIG LOSER; TRUMP CARRIES BOST

Congressman Danny Davis (D-7) has been around the political block so many times that his well-beaten path is now a moat. If each political endeavor is counted as a lap then Davis, who will be age 83 on Sept. 6, has notched 24 around-the-block laps and won 20 of them. That’s impressive.

But he did lose for mayor and for Congress twice (1984, 1986) and got ousted as committeeman (D) in the 29th Ward.

The congressman notched another win on March 19 when he won renomination to a 15th term. He will have vegetated in Washington for 30 years come 2026 and will likely run again. He is a year older than Joe Biden, will be age 85 in 2026, and exemplifies how octogenarians hang on to power. Davis had an unimpressive 52 percent win in the 2022 Democratic primary over Kina Collins and reprised that in 2024, beating two women – Collins and city Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin – with an underwhelming 51.3 percent.

The 2024 vote was a measly 70,413, a turnout which was down an astounding 62,000 from 2020’s 132,005 and equal to 2022’s off-year 68,046. Davis won 37,416-25,271-12,649 with Collins in last place. This was predictable. Two opponents mean victory. The 2022 vote was 35,366-31,054. The non- or anti-Davis vote was 48 percent in 2022 and 48.7 in 2024. 

Davis won because (1) the two women fractured the get-rid of-Davis vote, (2) he was endorsed by Mayor Brandon Johnson, who lives in the 7th’s 29th Ward (Austin) — as does Davis – and by governor JB Pritzker, (3) he spent $416,125 to Conyears-Ervin’s $532,423 and Collins’s $45,459, and (4) the Leftists were not energized. But, ultimately, it came down to voter inertia. Davis’s political shelf life had not yet expired.

“Shelf life” is a phrase customarily used in the food industry to describe perishables on shelves with time-limited bar codes. They’re in the compost heap if not timely sold.

The phrase also applies to politicians: As a commodity they can easily get stale, tiresome, inedible, intolerable and rotten. This especially applies to aging politicians. Just STEP ASIDE. But it does NOT apply to some politicians, both in Chicago and other urban cities, particularly on the congressional level.

For them longevity is perceived by voters as a virtue. Seniority is equated with power, despite age-related declining cognitive skills. Some congressmen in Chicago don’t step aside until they are either a few steps from the grave, in it, or like Jesse Jackson Jr., in jail. They don’t get pushed aside.

Davis has been a permanent fixture in Chicago politics for 45 years – 11 as Chicago’s 29th Ward alderman (1979-90), 6 as a county commissioner (1990-96), and 28 as congressman (since 1996). It’s debatable if he is an icon, which is defined as “widely admired for great influence and significance in a particular sphere.” Instead Davis is a person who has been hanging around in office for a long time. Accomplishments are irrelevant. Davis is the 7th-ranking Democrat (out of 18) on the tax-policy House Committee on Ways and Means but that accomplishment seems like a bump on a log.

Davis was a USPS clerk, a CPS teacher and a healthcare administrator before breaking into politics in the pre-Harold Washington era year of 1979. He ran against Machine hack LeRoy Cross as a “progressive reformer” in the Austin-area ward. Davis has since hewed to the path of other Black non-entities.  Davis is already drawing CPS, USPS, county and city pensions, plus his congressional salary of $174,000. He is a prince of the realm, living comfortably on nearly 450K-a year. Why quit?

The courts have applied a test of non-retrogression to the 1965 Voting Rights Act, which means any existing majority-Minority congressional district cannot be diluted to become minority-Minority. The 7th takes in  Chicago’s West Side wards but also a lot of precincts in and around the Loop and also in Oak Park. The district is 45 percent Black, and that is more than sufficient to dominate a Democratic primary.

It included after the 2021 remap all or parts of 21 wards with 469 precincts, the largest being 3, 16, 17, 20, 27, 28, 29, 37 and 42, encompassing the Loop, near South Side, near West Side, some Lakefront River North, Garfield Park, north Lawndale and Austin plus parts of Humboldt Park and Englewood. And also three suburban townships with 103 precincts, the largest being Oak Park and Proviso, encompassing Oak Park, Maywood, Forest Park, Westchester, Hillside, Broadview and Bellwood.

2020 PRIMARY: This was not a wake-up call for Davis. In a turnout of 132,005 he got 79,812 votes, or 60.2 percent. Finishing second was Kina Collins, a 30-year-old “community organizer” and “political activist” from Austin, who got 18,390 votes, or 13.8 percent, ahead of 2 others.

2022 PRIMARY: Collins was back with her platitudes to “end gun violence, reform criminal justice and provide universal health care” and Davis definitely got a wake-up call.

In a turnout of 68,046, about half of 2020’s, the outcome was a 35,366-31,054, or 52-45.1 percent. The margin was just 4,312 votes, with Davis spending $698,000 and Collins under $100,000.  Davis’s vote plunged by 44,445 from 2020 while Collins’s grew by 12,664. Collins got 68 percent in the 1st Ward, 63.4 in the 2nd, 56.2 in the 4th, 49.6 in the 11th, 55.5 in the 25th, 55.8 in the 26th, 40.3 in the 27th, 49.4 in the 42nd, and a stunning 73.6 in Oak Park. These are all areas with a large Democratic/Woke/White base.

Old-line committeepersons saved Davis’s bacon. The congressman won Proviso with 57.4 percent, his home 29th with 66.4, the 28th with 66.5, the 37th with 75.6, and the 5 near Southwest Side wards, including the 16th and 17th, by over 70 percent.

2024 PRIMARY: Davis could have retired with at least 5 pensions.  Collins gathered “democratic socialist” endorsements from five aldermen and Leftist money. Conyears-Ervin was elected in the 2019 runoff for treasurer with 59.4 percent over Ameya Pawar and unopposed in 2023. She is the wife of 28th Ward alderman/committeeperson (D) Jason Erwin and is an ex-state rep from East Garfield Park.

The March 19 vote stats had the Chicago vote at 57,297, Davis winning every ward, getting 67.3 and 67.4 percent, respectively, in the 16th and 17th wards, but Collins getting 25 percent in the gentrifying 27th Ward. Davis got 43 percent in Oak P ark and 67 percent in Proviso – better than 2022. Conyears-Ervin will be back in 2026, but not Collins.

4TH DISTRICT: 15th Ward alderman Raymond Lopez, who toyed with a 2023 mayoral bid – often appearing on FOX News to slam Lori Lightfoot on crime – folded his congressman campaign and was re-elected alderman 3,128-1,178 over Vicko Alvarez. Note that each ward has 54,000 people, so that’s a rather paltry mandate.

Lopez thought that he could run against 3-term congressman Chuy Garcia from the Right in the heavily Mexican-American district, which contains parts of 14 Chicago wards and suburbs Cicero and Berwyn. But anti-crime does not sell in a Democratic primary. Garcia, a mayoral loser in 2015 and 2023, crushed him 30,303-13,241.

12TH DISTRICT: Blessed may be those who expect nothing, and then not be disappointed, but Downstate farmer Darren Bailey expected some crumbs of gratitude from Donald Trump in 2024 after bombing miserably as the Trump candidate for governor (R) in 2022. He got no crumbs.

Mike Bost is the 6-term congressman (R) from far southern Illinois. The 2021 remap merged his Metro-East (East St. Louis and suburbs) district with southeastern Illinois into a solid Republican district. Bailey challenged him in 2024 and lost 48,493-45.904. Trump’s endorsement of Bost was the key.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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