March 13, 2024
2024'S TWO WORST CAMPAIGNS -- 45TH WARD COMMITTEEPERSON (D) AND STATE'S ATTORNEY (D)

Politicians often say that one should never overestimate the intelligence of voters. History proves that. Voters often say that one should never underestimate the stupidity of politicians. History also proves that.

For me it’s always a joy before an election to write about the stupidest candidates or politicians. So here’s a rundown of 2024’s “Stupidest Campaigns” – as exemplified by those being badly run, poorly strategized and messaged, unfocused and doomed from the start. Those not covered here will be post-election.

STATE’S ATTORNEY: Almost all but the Far Left and street criminals cheered the departure of Kim Foxx from the office. The no-cash-bail policy, as codified by the legislature’s SAFE-T Act, and the no chase policy has reduced cops from crime-fighters to spectators and destroyed all deterrence. Anybody, it was presumed, would be an improvement – or at least couldn’t be worse. Wrong again.

The CCSA candidates are Clayton Harris III, a former prosecutor (ASA), and former government staffer, and former ASA, Circuit judge and Appellate justice Eileen O’Neill Burke, a Northwest Sider running TV ads during “Saturday Night Live.”

She is trying to position herself as “tougher-on-crime” than Foxx, which doesn’t take all that much. If you say “arrest-the-bad-guys,” you’re already ahead. She’s trying to toughen up on gun crimes because ya know, it makes sense.

Harris has been relying on the Democratic Party and a presumed heavy Black turnout. He will change nary a Foxx policy.

But projections suggest countywide turnout on March 19 could be down to 16 or 17 percent. There are more than 3 million registered voters and 16-17 percent means a 400-450,000 turnout, as compared to nearly 1 million in 2020 and 2016. The most recent independent poll put Harris-Burke at 21-21 with a whopping 58 percent undecided. Fed up with the lack of prosecution by the office, the race could result in a Burke upset.

But John Catanzara, the president of the Fraternal Order of Police, recently and inadvertently came to the rescue of Harris. The FOP is toxic to the progressive base and his endorsement is a “Kiss of Death.”

Burke made it clear that she did not want an FOP endorsement, with the presumption that many city cops would be voting in the Republican primary and those voting Democrat would support her anyway.

In a March 8 social media posting Catanzara said the FOP was “urging people to vote in that race.”

“There is no doubt that Clayton Harris will be a step up from Kim Foxx, but he is the machine candidate,” he said.

“However, there is a much better chance to save this city and this county and get back to what people remember about law and order and accountability.” He then said he voted for Burke.

Burke’s campaign didn’t want any of it, rejecting support or votes from the FOP. That amplified the situation and quite predictably, Harris is up on TV with Burke’s FOP “endorsement.” This is a game-changer, even though word is Harris’ campaign has met with the FOP seeking its support. Even Trumper and convicted former governor Rod Blagojevich came out with a Cameo video for Harris. It wasn’t an outright endorsement. It was a paycheck.

“I was recently hired to do a Cameo where I said something nice about a candidate who I know but I was careful to make no endorsement” Blagojevich said on X. Harris was Blago’s chief-of-staff.

But, unless many cops pull a Democratic ballot, Harris will win 240,000-225,000, a margin of 15,000 in a 465,000 turnout.

45TH WARD COMMITTEEPERSON (D): The two most popular politicians in the ward are state Representative Lindsey LaPointe (D-19) and Alderman Jim Gardiner (45th). The least-popular are, paradoxically, Gardiner, plus ex-alderman John Arena (who got beat by Gardiner in 2019), and 2023 aldermanic loser Megan Mathias. Gardiner was elected committeeman (D) 5,554-5,267 in 2020.

Gardiner’s transgression is that he is an alpha male, an affliction now deemed part of “toxic masculinity.” Add to the fact that he soundly defeated Arena but was then humiliated for sending out misogynistic messages, Gardiner is a pariah to half the ward.

But he managed to beat Mathias 9,488-8,214 in the 2023 runoff and has a solid 51-percent base. A firefighter and substitute CPS teacher, Gardiner went into a rabbit hole during the message “scandal” and emerged untrusting of everybody.

But the ward’s real benchmarks are Pat O’Brien’s (R) 2020 13,275 votes for state’s attorney (51.1 percent) and Paul Vallas’s 2023 12,244 votes for mayor (68.7percent). That is the Right’s high and the 10,535/5,583 for Kim Foxx/Brandon Johnson the Left’s basement low.

Gardiner is quitting as committeeman and the 2024 candidates are 41st Ward committeeman (D) Joe Cook and 2022 state rep loser Michael Rabbitt.

Rabbitt ran as a progressive against incumbent Mike Kelly and lost by under 300 votes; he has allied himself with LaPointe. Both he and Cook reside in the Edgebrook/Wildwood section of the former 41st Ward, centered on St. Mary of the Woods Catholic church, where both are parishioners. The 2021 ward remap parachuted the area’s 5 precincts, between Devon and Touhy. Caldwell and Lehigh, into the 45th Ward.

Both started unknown south of Devon to Old Irving. LaPointe cured that for Rabbitt and has endorsed him and campaigns with him door-to-door. Of the $40,000 Rabbitt will spend for 4 mailers, LaPointe donated more than $15,000 as of February of this year.

Gardiner told me he is willing to assist Cook, but that Cook has not asked for his endorsement. Cook said that is correct. And that is puzzling to me.

Cook cannot win without getting all of the pro-Gardiner non-Leftist base, no matter how many doors he knocks on out there.

Gardiner got 7,578 in 2019, when he defeated Arena, 5,559 in 2020 when he beat Ellen Hill by 292 votes, and 9,488 in the 2023 runoff. That’s an average of 7,541 votes. Gardiner’s 2020 fall-off of 2,000 was from Republicans not voting in a Dem primary. That will recur in 2024. Cook won’t win without Republican crossovers.

Arena got 6,083 in the 2011 runoff, 7,263 in the 2015 runoff and 5,388 in 2019, and Mathias 8,214 in the 2023 runoff, an average of 6,737 outright Bernie Sanders got 7,457 in the 2016 presidential primary; and LaPointe, in her contested 2020 and 2022 state rep primaries got, respectively, 3,432 and 5,293 votes in the ward. That’s an overall Leftist base of about 6,300 and it will deliver for Rabbitt.

LaPointe lives in Portage Park and has become a sort of political animal. She spends a lot of time politicking and knocking on doors. She now has an enormous network of dedicated supporters who think she’s wonderful.

She is likeable and ambitious and I’m starting to think that her goal is to be a powerhouse of the 45th Ward and get elected alderman in 2027, taking out Gardiner – and making her a heroine of the Left. But that is just my speculation.

She can pull a Rabbitt out of her magic hat and he can take out Rep. Kelly in 2026. And then after 2027 LaPointe can prep for a congressional (5th District/Quigley) bid.

That’s how I would see a possible political trajectory.

Cook, meanwhile, has run a listless, unfocused, lackluster campaign. “We know exactly who the voters are,” said Rabbitt. Leftists have been cataloging voter info since 2011 in the ward. They find out who’s with them and work to keep them. You visit them twice (at home) and they’re with you forever, said Rabbitt. They then donate and put up yard signs.

Alderman Nick Sposato told me during the 2023 aldermanic race that Gardiner’s campaign had problems.

Gardiner would get out at some intersection and start knocking on every door on the block, Sposato said, not knowing if they were registered to vote.

Gardiner didn’t have a campaign manager until 3 weeks before the runoff. Gardiner was saved by Mathias’s ineptitude as a candidate and her base abandoning her for other choices. The fact so many ran for the post probably helped too.

LaPointe will not replicate Mathias in 2027 and would be a formidable opponent to Gardiner. That’s if she even wants the job. Word is she likes policy-making too much.

But Cook is replicating Gardiner in 2024. Cook said after the remap that he wouldn’t move and might run in the 45th, then said he wouldn’t run if Gardiner ran, citing their “political relationship,” then withdrew after Gardiner announced, then announced after Gardiner withdrew, and then renounced any Gardiner endorsement.

Cook has raised about $40K and will have mailings featuring the endorsements of Durbin, Duckworth, Quigley and trade unions. But he will lose 60/40.

Namby-pamby Democrats are just as bad as namby-pamby Republicans. And neither are useful to the Far Left and the Far Right.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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