February 7, 2024
RFK JR.'S PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDACY WILL COST REPUBLICANS U.S. HOUSE MAJORITY

There are many Americans who are convinced that a second presidential term for either Biden or Trump would be disastrous for the country. Likewise, there are many Republicans who are increasingly convinced that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be disastrous for Speaker Mike Johnson and his precarious U.S. House majority.

Recent polling shows RFK Jr. taking more votes from Biden than Trump and his consistent 8-11 percent polling is depressing the hardcore base vote of Trump to close to 40 percent and Biden’s to under 40 percent – which is where his job approval has now tanked. A Feb. 2 NBC poll had Biden’s approve/disapprove at 37/60; a CNN poll that same day had it at 40/60; and a Feb. 5 TIPP poll had it at 36/54. Those are doomsday numbers.

This situation can change dramatically by autumn. Trump could be convicted of some of his 91 felony charges, which could peel off some of his base. 

Or the anti-Trumpers, Never-Trumpers and Woke/Leftists could realize that a vote FOR RFK Jr. is a vote that benefits Trump. But what will NOT CHANGE is that, according to polls, most voters will not be voting for Trump, which means they will certainly NOT be voting for Republican congressional candidates.

Trump can definitely win. Getting 40-42 percent is enough to carry PA, WI, MI, OH, AZ, NC and GA. But he would assume the presidency with, at best, a 52R-48D Senate, and a 220D-215R House, paralyzing government from Day One. Republicans are relevant now because the House has investigatory subpoena power, impeachment power, and the votes to kill the so-called bi-partisan immigration bill, which caps the 32 U.S. ports of entry at 5,000-migrants-per day, except for “emergencies,” which is undefined.

That’s still 1,825,000-a year, plus maybe 200,000 “gotaways.” Compared to the current 300,000 migrants per month, or 3.6 million per year, that might be a “fix.” But power is illusionary if not used, and the House is now 219R-212D, with 218 needed to elect a speaker who appoints all committee chairs. Republicans had a 5-seat majority after 2022. There are four vacancies (3R/1D) with three special elections in the coming months in CA-20, OH-8 and NY-3, the latter on Feb. 13 in expelled George Santos’s Long Island district. That will likely flip to D, but CA and OH are Safe R.

There are 59 seats in-play (33D/26R), meaning open seats or districts which the incumbent won by 48-55 percent in 2022. That leaves 376 seats NOT in-play, where the incumbent won by 55 percent or more. There are various non-partisan analysts/firms who provide ongoing “ratings” and who stake their reputations on predictive accuracy: Cook, Inside Elections, UVA/Sabato, Election Desk and CNN’s CNalysis. Their categories are Safe, Likely, Leans and Toss-Up.

According to their January ratings there are 23, 12, 18, 20, and 17 Toss-Ups where there is no clear favorite. They also lump together the non-Toss-Up categories with the Republicans having a floor of 210/216/211/210/208 seats and Democrats’ 202/207/206/205/210, respectively. So of the 59 “competitive” only a third are not already Leaning. And a number of the seats are “cross-over,” meaning that a Democrat (8) won a Trump district or a Republican (20) won a Biden district.

There are 5 crossover seats (R) in NY and 6 in CA. And there is a second court-ordered remap underway in NY. Trump will tank in both states, getting under 30 percent, impacting House races in suburban and exurban areas. A Jan. 31 USC poll had Trump losing CA 53/25/7/5/1. Democrats are targets in the Big 7 battleground states where Trump is polling well: AZ, GA, NC, MI, NV, PA and WI. They have 93 electoral votes and Trump lost all but NC in 2020. The EV was 306-232. There are 16 House seats in play plus 5 Senate seats.

Bloomberg polled all those states and its Jan. 31 poll had Trump, despite all his legal travails, winning all versus Biden alone AND all against Biden/RFK/West/Stein. In NC the numbers were 49/39 and then 45/32/9/1/1, so RFK is taking nearly twice as many votes from Biden than Trump. In GA it was 49/41 and then 44/37/8/1/1. In AZ it was 47/40 and then 43/35/10/1/1. In MI it was 47/42 and then 43/37/8/1/1. In NV it was 48/40 and then 43/31/12/1/2. In PA it was 48/45 and then 43/40/7/1/1. If Trump wins MI or PA, even getting fewer votes than in 2020, it’s over. And in WI, no hotbed of Trumpism, it was 49/44 and then 43/35/10/0/2 – although a Feb. 2 FOX poll had it tied 47/47 and 42/39/7/2/1 in the state.

Trump lost to Biden by 81,283,353-74,223,975. If he replicates that number in 2024 and RFK pulls 10-12 million, then Trump wins. Turnout will be slightly lower on Nov. 5, with more Gen X, Y and Zers disengaged than in 2020. It should be remembered that Nixon won in 1968 with 43.4- percent despite Wallace pulling 13.5 percent from the conservative/Right base, and Bush I lost in 1992 because Perot pulled 18.9 percent, mostly from that base. Clinton won with 43 percent.

It’s hard to conceptualize anybody who now disapproves Biden-Harris voting for them – unless they find Trump even more repugnant. The entire Biden campaign theme seems to be “HE’S WORSE THAN ME” and that’s all you need to know. RFK lacks the money of Ross Perot and the segregationist base of Wallace but he could grasp the voters’ imagination and surge into the 20s.

That would definitely mean a Democratic House takeover, albeit narrowly. If Biden bumbles his way through the campaign, evidences ongoing cognitive decline and doesn’t stop the migrant flood, he will be a LOST CAUSE by Labor Day. If liberal Democrats and Woke/Leftists perceive a Trump win as inevitable they could desert en masse to RFK or Cornel West just to repudiate the decrepit, incompetent Democratic Establishment. After all, how screwed-up were they to be letting Trump back in power?

The 2028 presidential race starts Nov. 6. Trump would be term-limited and gone. The Woke/Left would be obsessed with a makeover and takeover of the party, all the while trashing Trump and whatever he does. But on Nov. 5 the anti-Trumpsters will be voting Democratic for down-ballot offices. They want some check on Trump. If Dems win 2/3rds of the Toss-Ups they’ll have the House and can impeach Trump monthly..

DOLDRUMS ON THE FRINGE: With Uncle Joe’s re-nomination inevitable, Democratic Leftist  activists have had little reason to vote in 2024’s primaries. This will have ideological consequences. In MO-1 (St. Louis and suburbs) Cori Bush, who gained fame by paying over $500,000 in campaign funds to her husband’s company for “security,” faces the county prosecutor, Wesley Bell. She will lose. In MN-5, centered in Minneapolis, Suad radical Ilan Omar, a pro-Palestinian Muslim who won her 2022 primary (D) narrowly. She has cash-on-hand of $ 1.4 million but has not yet filed. If she does she will lose.

Mega-MAGA congresswoman Lauren Boebert (R) got re-elected from her CO-3 eastern Rockies’ slope (Grand Junction, Pueblo) district by 746 votes in 2022. Her 2024 re-election prospects are so dismal that she moved to the eastern plains (Greeley) open CO-4. That is not going well.

RACIAL PROPORTIONALITY: The Supreme Court ruled last June in Milligan that partisan gerrymandering – meaning packing as many of one party’s voters into as few districts as possible -- was OK, but racial packing is not. AL is 26 percent Black but had a 6R-1D delegation; LA is 33 percent, but had a 5R-1D delegation. SCOTUS ordered 2 new  “minority opportunity” seats. Plus-2 Democrats.         

THE BOTTOM LINE: As of now, Biden-Harris, Sen. Schumer (D-NY) and Speaker Johnson will be gone in 11 months.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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