November 29, 2023
DEMOCRATS SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO RETAKE U.S. HOUSE, LOSE U.S. SENATE IN 2024
Politics in America has gone tribal. There is no agreeing to disagree anymore. The mindset has become, for about 80 percent of the population, that those who disagree are a “threat to democracy” and need to be figuratively exterminated.
A recent study by the University of Virginia (UVA) Center for Politics of hardcore Trump voters and hardcore Woke/Left/Biden voters indicates that if no independents voted, Biden would win 52/48. Biden’s job approval/disapproval was at 40/50 and Trump’s at 39/53, so Trump nostalgia is largely delusionary – but Biden disillusion is very real.
About 75 percent of the hardcore voters said they would support their party’s congressional candidates, a finding reinforced by the survey: (1) 70 percent of those Left/Biden think the other party is doing “lasting harm” to the country, as do 68 percent of Trumpsters. (2) 52/47 percent of Biden/Trumpers think the other party is a “threat to the American way of life.” And (3) 41/38 percent think the other side is “so extreme” that “violence is acceptable to prevent their goals.”
Ours is a society coming apart, and doing so by intent and not accident. Almost by design, no? There will be 10 million immigrants by the end of the Biden-Harris term in 2024. And another 10 million by 2028 if they are re-elected. And possibly a “President” Harris” sometime before 2028. Crime, inflation, the fentanyl crisis, mortgage rates, Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, anti-Semitism, Biden corruption, Trump’s trials, DOJ and FBI politization, woke indoctrination and a $33 trillion national debt seem not to faze Generation X, Y and Z voters. Some of them truly are obsessed with themselves, their social media presence and virtue signaling.
So why is control of Congress important? Presidents rule by executive order and by controlling the public agenda. Biden unilaterally opened the border and shut down domestic oil pipelines and drilling on federal lands. Trump would reverse what Biden reversed. But only Congress can impeach, raise the debt ceiling and investigate the executive branch.
Republicans won a 222R-213D majority in 2022, giving them a 5-seat cushion. That created legislative gridlock for 2023-24. But few notice. To govern effectively Trump needs Republican control of both chambers. It doesn’t matter for Biden-Harris: Just 4 more years of business-as-usual.
There are non-partisan analysts who “rate” congressional races, putting them into Toss-Up, Lean, Likely and Safe categories. Right now the consensus is that there are 191 Safe (R) seats and 214 Safe/Lean/Likely seats, with 10 (R) Toss-Ups. That puts them 4 short of the majority. For Democrats it’s 172 Safe and 203 Safe/Lean/Likely with 8 Toss-Ups.
There are redistricting lawsuits pending in 13 states, and where the 3rd-Party vote – RFK Jr., West, Stein, Manchin, maybe Yang or Gabbard – goes is critical. Republicans need to win half the Toss-Ups and not lose 10 in NY and CA. The election is 11 months out, but 218D-217R looks likely.
NEW YORK: The state is ground zero on the congressional front. The delegation is 15D-11R, a disproportionate number given Biden’s 60.9 percent 2020 win. The Democratic legislature passed a remap in 2021 that would have resulted in a 23D-3R delegation, but Republicans filed a state lawsuit alleging gerrymandering (which, by the way, has never been held unconstitutional), the State Court of Appeals bought it, and a special master redrew the lines to add 3 Republican districts on Long Island and one in the Hudson Valley, and preserved seats in Syracuse, the western Lower Tier (bordering PA) and on Staten Island. A key factor was Lee Zeldin’s (R) relatively narrow 250,000-vote loss for governor in 2022.
Democrats have filed a state court lawsuit claiming the current map is just “temporary” and a new map is required. That will go nowhere. But Trump will lose NY by 2 million in 2024, putting 6 of 11 (R) seats in jeopardy. Freshmen Nick LaLota, George Santos and Anthony D’Esposito won by 56, 54 and 52 percent, respectively, on Long Island. Santos is currently on trial for campaign finance fraud and other felonies, so his seat is gone. Upstaters Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams won with 50, 51 and 51 percent, respectively. A huge Trump drubbing will doom all but LaLota.
CALIFORNIA: 18.8 percent of the House’s 213 Democrats come from CA, which was Nancy Pelosi’s power base. The delegation is 40D-12R, of which 16 (D) are women. CA has an “open primary” wherein all candidates run with party affiliation with the top two advancing to the Nov. election. Trump lost CA by 5,112,121 votes, getting 36.5 percent. Republican incumbents Kevin Kiley, John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert won with, respectively, 54, 50, 52, 53 and 52 percent. Again, a Trump drubbing is their doom. Republicans could win the Orange County 47th, where Katie Porter is retiring to run for senator, the late Feinstein seat.
NORTH CAROLINA: This is the Republicans’ 2024 firewall, offsetting any NY or CA disasters. The Republican legislature passed a remap in 2021 which would have given them an 11R-3D delegation, an extraordinary gerrymander in a state Trump won 49.9-48.6 in 2020, a margin of under 100,000 votes. But Democrats appealed to the state Supreme Court, on which they had a majority, and it invalidated the map as a “gerrymander” and drew new lines resulting in 7R-7D.
Republicans won a NCSC majority in 2022 and the new Supreme Court decided to “revisit” the issue. It decided sua sponte that the original map was just fine and reversed its prior ruling. The 2021 map created solid Republican seats in Charlotte’s western suburbs, the south suburbs of Raleigh-Durham, and the northwest Piedmont west of Winston-Salem, and made the northeast Black Belt 1st District 47/42 White/Black. Expect a Republican plus-3.
MICHIGAN (6R-7D): There are two (D) open seats, that in Flint won by 53 percent and that in Lansing won by 52 percent. If Trump runs strong, both could flip.
PENNSYLVANIA (8R-9D): Three (D) incumbents won with 51, 51 and 53 percent, largely because the Republican governor nominee was no abortion/no exceptions. If Trump wins PA , as he did in 2016, they could lose. OHIO (10R-5D): Republicans expected a 12R-3D delegation after their 2021 remap, but got 10-5. Two (D) seats could flip. There are 3 vulnerable (D) seats in NV and 2 (R) in AZ.
U.S. SENATE: Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) retirement guarantees that Republican governor Jim Justice will win his seat in 2024, also guaranteeing at least a 50/50 Senate in 2025-26. Trump won the state with 68.6 percent in 2020, so it’s a done deal. Increasingly likely would be a Republican majority with potential pickups in MT and/or OH, both pro-Trump states where he got, respectively, 56.9 and 53.4 percent in 2020.
A recent poll showed 3-term incumbent Jon Tester (D) up 39-35 over Republican Tim Sheehy, founder of a high-tech aerial firefighting company. Polling under 40 percent is ominous. In OH Sherrod Brown (D), also a 3-termer, is up 41/38, 41/36 and 42/32 against his 3 potential Republican foes in a recent poll. A Trump wave will doom both.
New on the radar is the open seat in MI, a state Trump won narrowly in 2016 but lost by 154,188 votes in 2020. Lansing congresswoman Elissa Slotkin has cinched the Democratic nomination and was thought to be the race’s clear frontrunner, but a Nov. 10 EPIC poll showed her up only 39-37 over ex-congressman Mike Rogers (R) and 40-36 over former Wayne County (Detroit) sheriff James Craig. The undecided vote in all these contests is in the 25-30 percent range.
A unique situation has arisen in AZ where maverick senator Kyrsten Sinema, elected in 2018 as a Democrat, has switched to Independent. She has $10 million on-hand. Polling has it at 39/33/29 for congressman Ruben Gallego (D), 2022 governor loser Kari Lake (R) and Sinema. Trump will play a big role here: He must keep Republicans in line for fervid Trumpster Lake.
Prediction: The next Senate will be 53R-47D.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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