October 25, 2023
WHY 3RD-PARTY CANDIDATES DO NOT WIN FOR PRESIDENT -- AND 2024 WILL BE NO EXCEPTION
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., commonly referred to in the media as RFK Jr., a 69-year old environmental lawyer and scion of a political dynasty, is a Man-On-A-Mission. And that mission is to replicate 168 years of American presidential history and finish third or fourth in the 2024 election, no matter what the Joe Rogan podcast listeners say. He will create some sound-and-fury as an “independent” candidate but he will obviously lose.
Like his political forbears in 1856, 1860, 1912, 1948, 1968, 1992, 1996 and 2000, RFK Jr. will join the dustbin of history populated with 3rd-Party losers Ralph Nader (who got 2.7 percent), Ross Perot (18.9 and 8.4), George Wallace (13.5), Strom Thurmond (2.4), Henry Wallace (2.3), Teddy Roosevelt (27.4), John Breckinridge (18.1), John Bell (12.6) and John Fremont (33.1).
Kennedy looms as more like a Nader than a Roosevelt, the ex-president (R) who ran in 1912, got 22.4 percent, and proved to be a spoiler. Woodrow Wilson (D) was elected with 41.8 percent. 2024 is going to be a rerun of 1996, with RFK Jr. not getting more than 3-5 percent. Next year will feature a Biden-Trump rematch, which polls have shown a majority of Americans abhor. Cornel West is running as the Woke/Left candidate.
An Oct. 20 Harvard-Harris poll showed Trump up 52-48, and an Oct. 19 Morning Consult poll had Trump beating Biden in AZ, GA, PA, NC and WI. If that occurs, Trump wins. Jr.’s views are odd – anti-VAX poisons, anti-Open Borders, pro-Green New Deal, anti-fossil fuels. An Oct. 24 Siena poll put the race at 38/31/13/5 for Biden/Trump/RFK/West and an Oct. 23 USA Today poll put it at 37/37/13/5. But the HATE/FEAR Factor will prevail: Each hates the other side so much that they’re not going to WASTE their vote on a 3rd-Party loser.
1856: WOKE/LEFTIST REPUBLICANS. The Republican Party was founded in 1854 as a single-issue fringe movement -- the abolition of slavery. That would destroy the economy of the agrarian South, dependent on slave labor to harvest tobacco and cotton. Republicans were the virtue-signaling Wokesters of the time, concentrated solely in the North and elitist New England, totally ignorant of economic reality. They wanted cheap smokes and clothes, but knew not from where they came.
From the founding through the 1850s the 2-party system consisted of (1) Democrats who were South-dominated, pro-slavery and in favor of expansion into new territories and (2) Whigs who were against slavery expansion but not abolition. Both were pro-status quo. The Republican Abolitionists wanted a Third Way, which horrified an establishment that fretted about secession and/or civil war. They called Republicans “extremists.”
In 1856 the Republicans were the “Third Party,” running frontier explorer John Fremont against the Democrat James Buchanan, a “dough-face” (then defined as a Northern man with Southern sympathies), the ambassador to England, and Whig ex-president Millard Fillmore. Fremont got 33.1 percent, carrying IL, WI, MI, OH and NY; Buchanan got 45.3 percent, carrying 19 states, and Fillmore 21.5 percent. The 3rd-Party was now the 2nd-Party and the Whigs vanished.
1860: A 4-WAY DIVIDE. Virtue doesn’t last forever, and by 1860 the erstwhile Northern Whigs (like Abraham Lincoln) had attached to the Republican Party and Abolition morphed into Containment (in the South). “Moderation” replaced “extremism” on slavery. The South was viewed in the North as the oppressor while the South saw its “way of life” threatened. After all, Blacks outnumbered Whites 3-to-1 and, if freed and granted the vote, would be in political control. Democrats split into two factions, one (South) favoring slavery forevermore and the other (North) favoring “popular sovereignty,” letting new states vote to allow/ban slavery. This led to violence in Kansas and the SCOTUS Dred Scott decision declaring slaves “property.”
The Republicans nominated Lincoln, anti-expansion but not pro-abolition. Two Democrats ran, with the North faction picking Stephen Douglas and the South picking VP Breckinridge; ex-Whig John Bell also ran. The result was predictable: Lincoln won with 39.8 percent, carrying 18 of 33 states, including IL, MI, NY, OH, PA,, VA, KY and TN – all by a plurality. His 1,885,938 votes were a half million more than Fremont’s 1,342,345. The two Democrats got a total of 2,228,221 votes, or 47.6 percent, about 350,000 more than Lincoln.
1856 and 1860 were convulsion elections with a single issue realigning U.S. politics. Republicans won the presidency and kept it for 44 of the next 52 years, until 1912.
1912: REGULATION AND CONSERVATION. After the Civil War the Republicans abandoned Blacks in the South and became the party of “Big Business” and greed-is-good, as Gordo Gekko said. By 1900 the abuses of monopolies and trusts had become egregious and gave rise to populism, defined as those advocating the free coinage of gold and silver, public ownership of utilities and railroads, an income tax on the wealthy, regulation of labor conditions and land conservation. This was championed by William Jennings Bryan (D), who lost to conservative William McKinley (R) for president in 1896 and 1900.
Teddy Roosevelt, an avid conservationist, was slated for VP and became president after McKinley’s 1901 assassination. He embraced the “progressive” agenda, emerged as a “trust-buster,” and was hugely popular. Successor Taft, Secretary of War, reverted to McKinleyism. TR ran against Taft and won most 1912 primaries but Taft was nominated. Roosevelt then ran as a “Bull Moose Progressive” and got 27.4 percent to Taft’s 23.2, with the Socialist at 6 percent. But the Progressives reverted to the Republicans in 1914.
1948: PRO-STALIN AND PRO-SEGREGATION: Fate was unkind to Henry Wallace, a borderline Marxist/Socialist who was elected VP with FDR in 1940. He was an outspoken apologist for Communist USSR dictator Joseph Stalin’s terrorist police state and liquidation of opponents. Wallace was dumped as VP in 1944, replaced by Harry Truman, and left office in Jan. 1945. Roosevelt died in April 1945. Fate was kind to America.
Republicans won Congress in 1946, and Truman loomed as a certain 1948 loser, especially after candidates from the Left (Wallace) and Right (Thurmond) entered. But Dewey (R) ran an insipid campaign and Truman won with 49.5 percent.
1968: NIXON’S “SOUTHERN STRATEGY.” It was a year of racial riots and political assassinations, including RFK Jr.’s father, and continuing anti-war protests due to the Vietnam stalemate. The generals wanted 500,000 more troops, which Johnson rejected. Only Gene McCarthy (D-MN) had the guts to challenge LBJ, running as the anti-War candidate. LBJ withdrew after nearly losing the NH primary and RFK Sr. jumped in. So did VP Hubert Humphrey (D-MN), the president’s choice.
Despite these convulsions no independent Leftist emerged, but segregationist Alabama governor Wallace did. Nixon won with 43.4 percent, with Wallace taking 13.5.
1992: THE BILLIONAIRE “REFORMER.” Incumbent Bush won the 1991 Gulf War, but his popularity quickly collapsed. The Democrats chose Clinton-Gore, and billionaire Texas computer tech pioneer Ross Perot decided to run. Perot was a novelty, able to self-fund and sort of conservative. Clinton won with 43 percent, carrying 32 states, while Bush got an embarrassing 37.5 percent. Perot got a still-impressive 18.9, but underperformed expectations.
1996: BACK TO NORMAL. Perot really underperformed 4 years later, his vote declining from 19,143,821 to 8,085,294, just 8.9 percent, a collapse of 11 million. Bob Dole (R) got 39,197,469 votes, just 40.7 percent, almost identical to Bush’s 39,104,550. As George Carlin said, Dole was out there with “I’m an honest man.” Bullcrap. Clinton said, hey, I’m full of crap and how do you like them apples?
The Clinton-Gore vote upped from 44,909,889 to 47,401,185. The obvious conclusion is that Perot attracted prior non-voters who were soured on the Bush/Clinton choice.
2000: NADER ELECTS BUSH. Aging consumer advocate Ralph Nader was the Green Party candidate and got an anemic 2,882,955 votes, or 2.7 percent. But he was THE SPOILER. The Bush/Gore outcome was 50,456,022/50,999,897, an electoral vote win of 271-266. It all came down to Florida, where Bush won 2,912,790-2,912,523, a margin of 267 votes. Nader got 97,488 votes, or 1.6 percent, in FL. Without a doubt, BUT FOR Nader, Gore would have been president.
RFK Jr. will be inconsequential in 2024.
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