October 4, 2023
"BE FRUITFUL AND MULTIPLY" EXPLAINS U.S. MIGRANT INFLUX
In Christian dogma the promise of eternal life after death is a powerful message to those suffering through a miserable life on Earth. It helps to get more followers.
So, too, is the Biblical command in Genesis 1:28 to “be fruitful and multiply” and “fill the Earth.” In other words, Roman Catholics were told to procreate to produce more offspring who then would support the church and obey its doctrines. It’s called sustainability.
Americans are not being “sufficiently” fruitful. The U.S. birthrate is a net negative, with 3.6 million births on average per year over the past decade and about 5 million deaths (pre-COVID) per year. The standard Replacement Factor (RF) is 2.1 births per child-bearing woman (age 15-44) or couple. The RF is presently 1.6 and is declining at the rate of 4 percent per year.
Computed over a decade, absent any immigration, the U.S. population would decline by 11.2 million from its 2020 U.S. Census count of 331,149,000 (see chart). However, a U.N. study projects the current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.
So the concept of sustainability explains the ongoing migrant crisis at the Southern border where more than 10,000 people are now crossing daily, according to Reuters. Those 6.5 million-plus border-crossers (and maybe a million getaways) since 2021 are now asylum-seekers.
Once could argue that the Biden Administration has chosen to let them into America to fulfill the unfulfilled command of Genesis 1:28: If you can’t replenish the workforce, then bring them in from elsewhere. I think this is a conscious policy decision by the U.S. Welfare State (the bureaucracy) in collusion with the U.S. Corporate State to import cheap labor to do the unskilled jobs some Americans won’t do. Everybody wants a “good paying” job – you know, like 100K-a year — even with a degree in basket-weaving. And if they don’t get one? It’s, you know, like “racist,” and entirely the fault of the capitalist pigs and their system. Socialism is the new rage because it eliminates the need for meritocracy and substitutes virtue and entitlement.
Who’s going to work for minimum wage — $15 to $20-an hour — in jobs Americans consider beneath their dignity? Like busboys, fast-food servers, lawn-cutters, maids, cleaners, stockboys, greeters, laborers. Yet spoiled, affluent Americans want and EXPECT somebody to service them. And they get upset “if the service in this restaurant sucks.”
The problem is that the 2.25 million federal government workers and the 1.8 million military personnel also EXPECT somebody to pay their salaries and/or pensions, and the 47 million “boomers” born between 1940 and 1960, now in retirement, EXPECT their benefits. The bigger problem is that the U.S. debt now stands at $33 trillion in borrowing, meaning that the interest on the bills, bonds and notes owned by investors amounts to over $230 billion per quarter, approaching $1 trillion annually, which is 20-25 percent of the U.S. annual budget, now $4.7 trillion.
The debt went from $5 to $10 trillion in Bush’s 8 years, and then to $20 trillion in Obama’s 8 years. Trump added $4 trillion. Under Biden, in just over 3 years, it’s ballooned by $9 trillion, much attributable to borrowing for COVID spending. Nobody in D.C. even wants to talk about this issue. Other than cutting spending, there is no solution.
The budget stands on 4 fiscal pillars. For the past 20 years it was essentially $1 trillion for Medicare/Social Security, $1 trillion for the federal government, $800 billion for defense and $500 billion for debt service. Now it’s 1/1.7/1/1, including $76.8 billion for Ukraine.
And the really massive problem is that the deficit is now $1.524 trillion. It was $946 billion in fiscal 2022, and increased by $578 billion in fiscal 2023, which ended Sept. 30. Joe Biden owns that. A revenue/tax source must be found, and it won’t be just taxing billionaires. The corporate tax rate, now at 21 percent, will jump into the 30s if Democrats win the presidency and Congress in 2024. And those taxes will be passed along to consumers, spiking inflation.
At present unemployment is at 3.8 percent, a real bounce-back from the COVID depths, and inflation is at 3.7 percent over the past year. All should be rosy for Biden-Harris. But a grocery cart fill-up for a family of four is $300-500, a gas tank fill-up is $60-100 and a family fast-food fill-up is $50-70. There is discontent.
It is estimated that there are about 6.4 million unemployed in America. The asylum-seekers can help fill that void, although work permits have been historically slow to be granted even with Biden’s new shortened timeline mandate.
Asylum was once defined as being in a place of safety, as related to criminals and debtors. Now it’s viewed as a refuge from persecution. But does anybody believe ALL the migrants from all their 160 nations are all fleeing because of personal danger? No judge would grant their claim. The problem is to get them on some U.S. payroll and start collecting taxes.
POLITICAL FACTOR: Bernie Sanders said everybody who is in the country on any Election Day anywhere should have the right to vote. Forget about the privileges of citizenship. There are 237,882,330 registered voters in the U.S., and 2020 turnout was 158,429,631, or 66.6 percent. Biden beat Trump 81,283,501-74,223,973. Democrats want the votes of the 11 million legal immigrants who are not yet citizens, but their eligibility to vote can take years. Add to that a chunk of asylum-seekers in states like MI, PA, WI, AZ and NV sometime after 2024 and Democrats will be unbeatable.
Migrants, historically, have come to work and send money back home. But as larger and larger droves of people cross the border knowing they can be provided services whether they work or don’t work, the issue of sustainability must take center stage.
WINDY CITY WOES: Chicago’s 2023 budget is $16.4 billion and there is a projected revenue shortfall of $538 million. Lightfoot’s 2022 budget was short $85 million. Mayor Brandon Johnson famously proclaimed after winning that there “was enough for everybody” in Chicago. He also promised not to raise property taxes. Forget about it.
According to Alderman Nick Sposato (38th) there are between 2 to 8 buses arriving daily from the southern border, each carrying 40 migrants. That’s an influx of 80-320/day, or somewhere around 6,000 per month. The city’s “migrant” population is pushing 25,000 but it still costs the city about $30 million per month. The city has let a $26 million contract to build “winterized” tent cities, but has yet to find 2-acre sites to place them.”It won’t be on the South Side,” said Sposato. “There are ‘safety’ concerns,” he added.
“There are no sites” big enough on the Northwest Side, Sposato said. There are 92 migrants per night sleeping in the 16th District police station, of which 30 are kids, who spend their days in local public schools, turning them into daycare centers. More will come. “It’s going to get worse,” said Sposato.
REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE: I remember as a kid that Chicago Cub Ernie Banks was chronically pleading “wait until next year” after a dismal season. That’s what home sellers are doing. Sell in 2024, not 2023. According to area realtors, there is a low inventory of homes on the market. Mortgage rates are in the 5.5-6.5 range, so buyers are low-balling. Sellers know their house has gone UP in value (like their property taxes) and won’t give it away. 2024 could be a boom year or, if the feds again raise interest rates, a wait-until-2025 year.
Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com
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