June 28, 2023
GARDINER'S DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEEPERSON RE-RUN IS A RISKY PROPOSITION

There is an old proverb which says that it is better to keep silent and be thought a fool than to open your mouth and prove it.

That encapsulates the political predicament of embattled 45th Ward alderman Jim Gardiner. He just won a second term as alderman in the April runoff with 53.6 percent and now he is running for a second term as ward Democratic committeeperson in 2024. Gardiner won the mostly powerless party post in 2020 with 51.9 percent.

It’s a risky proposition. If he loses on March 19 – and that is a real possibility – his credibility for the rest of his aldermanic term, which runs through May 2027, may be shattered. Gardiner might want to consider that it is better to not run and be thought a loser by his legion of Woke/Left detractors than to run and be proven a loser.

“I’m not going to let those nitwits push me out” as committeeperson, said Gardiner. He allegedly was his own campaign manager, scheduler and publicist in the pre-Feb. 28 period. After topping a 6-candidate field with 48 percent, but falling 320 votes short of winning outright with over 50 percent, Gardiner reportedly succumbed to entreaties from aldermanic allies Nick Sposato and Anthony Napolitano and got help from a professional manager and cranked out mailers – “none of them negative” he told me.

He defeated attorney Megan Mathias by 1,269 votes in the runoff, upping his vote total by 1,805. Mathias campaigned for 20 months, raised nearly $300,000, and claimed to have “knocked on 10,000 doors.”  She got 16.9 percent, or 2,694 votes, on Feb. 28. The others got a combined 5,628. 

Mathias tried to package herself as “pro-police Woke/Leftist” – a straddle which satisfies nobody and failed to energize the 45th’s 7,000-8,000 “progressives.” Brandon Johnson got 5,585 votes, so he underperformed his base. Gardiner got 9,488 votes, so he underperformed Vallas by 2,756 votes.  Gardiner had a “rough patch” during 2021-22 involving crude texts about a few city workers. That resulted in a public apology. Gardiner became even more of a pariah to the Left. Allegations also swirled of pay-to-play, abuse of power, and an FBI investigation – none of which have led to criminal charges, brining into question the merit of the allegations.

Gardiner got 1,918 more votes than 2019, showing that his base stayed solid and voters appreciated his good ward services. “I’m planning to run again” for committeeperson, Gardiner said. Also making plans are Joe Cook, the 41st Ward committeeperson whose Edgebrook/wildwood home was remapped into the 45th. “I’m considering running,” he said.

There will be a progressive candidate from Portage Park/Old Irving, and J.C. Strzalka-Steil, a former staffer for Rob Martwick and recent law grad, is running. He was heavily involved in the Mathias campaign. One must reside in the ward to run, so Mathias, remapped into the 30th Ward, is out.

The 2020 turnout was 10,826, down from 14,858 in the 2019 aldermanic. Ditto in 2024. To win Gardiner needs more than 75 percent of his 8,000-9,000 base to vote in a Democratic primary. Be certain that the Left’s 7,000 base will turn out to vote against him. With no runoff, Gardiner wins easily if he has 2 or more opponents. Don’t expect Cook to run.

It might be wise for Gardiner to hunker down, focus on ward matters, and take a pass on 2024. But he won’t. And he probably won’t lose, either.

41ST WARD: There’s something odd about this ward, nestled in the city’s far Northwest corner. It’s like having a piece of Idaho in Chicago. It’s the city’s most conservative and pro-police ward, and progressives avoid it as if it is toxic. The Kennedy off-ramp at Cumberland-Higgins has a big banner that reads “Take Your Affordable Housing And Shove It.” Just kidding. Although that is what Napolitano has done with the long-delayed project.

The numbers signify the ward’s cultural, demographic and ideological solidarity and Napolitano’s popularity. Of the 36,814 registered voters (RVs), 53.1 percent voted on April 4 and an astounding 86.3 percent (16,853) voted for Paul Vallas. Napolitano, a CFD-on-leave who is ex-CPD won with 72.4 percent in 2023 and 70.3 percent in 2019. Trump got 47 percent in 2020, his best in the city, and Pat O’Brien (R) swamped Kim Foxx with 72.2 percent for state’s attorney. Even the hapless Darren Bailey (R) lost to J.B. Pritzker by just 50.5-47 percent in 2022.

City Democrats have occasionally tried to contest the ward, but a Republican (or at least a non-Democrat) has been alderman for 50 of the 76 years since 1947. For two decades Ralph Capparelli had a non-aggression pact with the Doherty/McAuliffe Republicans.

“I would never want that job” as Democratic committeeperson, said Napolitano, who endorsed Vallas and was a strident critic of Lori Lightfoot. But Napolitano would prefer an ally, not a rival in that spot. He backed officer Bill Kilroy in 2020, but Joe Cook beat him 55.3-44.7. With Cook exiting, 3 members of his organization seek the post: John Hanley, legislative director of Local 399 of the IUOE, former Taft LSC community rep Goran Davidovac, and 2023 alderman loser Paul Struebing. Hanley will be Cook’s choice.

38TH WARD: Sposato was elected to his fourth term on Feb. 28 with 54.6 percent (7,305 votes) against 4 opponents, an impressive feat. The runner-up was Ed Bannon with 3,638 (27.2 percent), a former Arena staffer once active member of committeeperson Rob Martwick’s “38th Dems” ward organization. Martwick and Sposato are allies, with Sposato resigning as committeeman (D) in 2017 so Martwick, then a state rep. could take the post.

Martwick, elected in 2020 with 7,101 votes, refused to endorse in the 2023 alderman race, so Bannon resigned in a huff and joined United Northwest Side (UNS), which Bannon calls a “grassroots political” organization “dedicated to electing candidates” who support “affordable housing, public education, civil rights, criminal justice reform.” How about Ed Bannon for alderman in 2027? “It’s in my mind,” he said.

The UNS “is just a bunch of Leftists, socialists and communists,” said Sposato. If Bannon thinks moving Left is a pathway to success, he’s delusionary. Vallas trounced Johnson 11,596-3,326, a 77.7 percent win. Bailey got 38.3 percent and Trump 39.7, so there is a Republican base. Martwick, the 38th Ward Dems, Bannon and UNS all endorsed Johnson – and delivered a dribble of votes.

Martwick has posted on social media that Vallas was a Republican all along and after joining the conservative think tank Illinois Policy Institute, he simply said, “I told you  so.”

Bannon won’t challenge Martwick in 2024. “We’re not fans” of each other, the senator said. Bannon apparently hopes that his UNS and Johnson tie will connect him to CTU’s United Working Families (UWF),  and get him more money. Martwick hopes that his Johnson endorsement will deflect a Leftist primary challenge in 2023. Sposato may not run for a fifth term in 2027. “It depends on my health,” he said.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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