June 21, 2023
DEMOCRATS ALREADY EYEING DURBIN'S SENATE SEAT IN 2026

Getting put out to pasture is a wonderful experience for livestock but not so much for politicians.
It means transitioning from powerful and relevant to inconsequential and irrelevant. The process can be voluntary, as in getting too old, or it can be involuntary, as in getting defeated in an election. Illinois’ U.S. Senator Dick Durbin (D), whose current fifth term expires in 2026, may soon experience the joys of grazing in the grass.

Durbin will be age 79 this November, making him 2 years younger than Joe Biden, who turns 81 that month. He is part of the pre-Baby Boomer Generation born during World War II, which is clinging to power in Washington. Durbin would be 82 if he returned for a sixth term in 2026 and 88 by the time he finishes it in 2032.

If he serves through the end of 2026, he will tie two Illinois senatorial records: (1) That of longevity, now held by Shelby Cullom (R), who served 30 years from 1883 to 1913, when he was defeated in the 1912 primary. That was the first election when senators were elected by popular vote, not by the state legislature. Cullom, then governor, was elected in 1883 and then re-elected in 1888, 1894, 1900 and 1906, all Republican years which brought in a Republican legislature, And (2) that of being the oldest.

If the name Cullom sounds familiar to North Side Chicagoans, it’s because the senator has a city-spanning east-west street named after him, at 4300 north, one block south of Montrose.

To be sure, Durbin could announce in 2025 that he’s running again and he would clear the field. He is currently Majority Whip and chairman of the Judiciary Committee, which clears all federal judicial nominees, including the Supreme Court. Since Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) put a “hold” on all pending Biden nominees, there’s not much happening in that department.

Two factors enter into Durbin’s decision-making: First, he may NEVER be Majority Leader. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) aced out Durbin for that job in 2016, is a prodigious fund-raiser for his colleagues (D), is age 72 and is not dislodgeable anytime this decade. And second, it is increasingly LIKELY that Republicans in 2024 will flip the Senate from 51D-49R to 51R-49D, or maybe even 52R-48D. Republicans are certain to win the West Virginia seat and look good in Ohio and Montana. That means Durbin will be a non-chairman. So why stay until 2032?

Durbin has been Democratic Whip since 2005. That is an achievement. Only 2 other Illinoisans have made Senate leadership: Scott Lucas (D), who served 1939-50 and was Majority Leader 1949-50, and Everett Dirksen (R), who served 1951-69, was Minority Leader 1959-69, and got the federal courthouse named for him. Of course, one IL senator, Barack Obama (2004-08), did better than them all and got elected U.S. president.

Another senator, Civil War general John Logan (R), who served 1871-77 and 1879-86 and was Republican nominee for vice-president in 1884. Had the Blaine-Logan ticket won, he could have been president in the early 1890s. Instead, he got the city’s Logan Square named for him. Adlai Stevenson III (D), son of the 1952 and 1956 presidential nominee (D) and grandson of a VP, served an undistinguished decade (1970-80) and might have run for president had he won for governor in 1982 or 1986. Chuck Percy (R) lusted to run for president in 1976, but then Watergate, Nixon, Agnew and Ford spoiled it.

Durbin won senate elections in 1996, 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020, all but 2014 being robust Democratic cycles (see chart). His margins ranged from a low of 391,015 in 2014, a Republican “wave” year in which Bruce Rauner (R) was elected governor, to a high of 2,095,223 in 2008, when Obama was elected president and swept Illinois. His toughest race was his first, in 1996 when 2-termer Paul Simon (D) retired. Republicans had a potent candidate awaiting in popular governor Jim Edgar’s lieutenant governor, Bob Kustra. But the hard-right Al Salvi, self-funding and employing Trumpster negative tactics 20 years before Trump came along, bashed Kustra as a liberal and narrowly won the primary (R).

Durbin trounced Pat Quinn 512,520-233,138 in his primary (D), He then promptly began bashing and defining the unknown Salvi as an “extremist” because of Salvi’s anti-abortion and pro-gun views. Lost in the clutter was the fact that Durbin in 1982 ran as pro-life, but switched to pro-choice in 1984. That made him a rehabilitated ex-“extremist” in addition to total opportunist, but that was predictably un-mentioned. Durbin says he is “personally opposed” to abortion but that it’s “a woman’s choice.” Durbin’s votes against a partial-birth abortion ban and Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act got him barred from communion in his Springfield diocese.

Durbin crushed Salvi 2,341,744-1,728,824, a margin of 612,920 votes, getting 54.3 percent. Bill Clinton won Illinois by 754,723 votes. Durbin persistently mouths “progressive” and anti-Trump platitudes but he has morphed into an increasingly tiresome Old White Guy.

Also mentionable is Durbin’s 1982 defeat of congressman Paul Findley (R) by 1,410 votes. Findley was Congress’s leading advocate of a separate Palestinian state and Mid-East “balance,” which is what Woke/Leftists demand today. Durbin bashed Findley as anti-Israel and a Yasser Arafat and Palestine Liberation Organization puppet, raising a ton of money from Jewish sources.  It worked.

Illinois has become a lopsidedly Democratic state. Biden won with 57.5 percent in 2020, a margin of 1,026,024 votes. JB Pritzker won with 54.9 percent in 2022, a margin of 514,653 votes. A statewide Democratic nomination is tantamount to election. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D) won her second term in 2022 with 56.8 percent, a margin of 538,078 votes. Her term expires in 2028 and it is quite likely she will win two or more terms, taking her to 2040 or beyond.

So the Durbin seat is a much-coveted prize, either in 2026 or 2032, and the next occupant will have a lock on it for a generation, well into the 2040s and even to 2050 (which would be 4 6-year terms). The already-formed Democratic field includes state Attorney General Kwame Raoul, age 58 ,U.S. Representatives Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-3), age 49, and Lauren Underwood (D-14) age 36, and state comptroller Susana Mendoza, age 51. House speaker Chris Welch is a possibility.  All would have to give up their current posts to run for senator.

The current consensus is that (1) Krishnamoorthi will definitely run, that (2) Raoul automatically inherits the huge Black voter base in Cook County, which is close to 40 percent of the statewide primary (D) base, but that if he takes a pass he could be governor in 2030, that (3) Underwood won’t run if Raoul does and Welch will run if Raoul doesn’t, and that (4) Mendoza is counting on being the only woman running.

A lot depends on Pritzker (D), age 58, who is worth $4 billion. He has delusions of being president and can self-fund and quick-start a national campaign in a moment. If 2024 remains the Year of Biden then Pritzker must wait until 2028 and run for a third term as governor in 2026. Otherwise there will be a lot of statewide openings that year.

On the money front, Krishnamoorthi has a whopping $11,190,889 on-hand, Underwood $798,978 (but she raised $7.1 million in 2022), Raoul $736,857 and Mendoza $211,350. Early outlook: Raoul beats Krishnamoorthi but Krishnamoorthi beats Underwood and Welch.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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