April 19, 2023
YOUNG WOKESTERS, BLACK VOTERS WERE KEY TO JOHNSON RUNOFF VICTORY

by RUSS STEWART

One parable proclaims that “blessed are those who expect nothing, for they cannot be disappointed.” A similar parable could describe Brandon Johnson’s 26,024-vote mayoral runoff victory margin: Something like “stupid are those who did not vote, for they will surely be disappointed – and probably punished.”

Johnson beat Paul Vallas 318,444-292,420 on April 4, getting 52.1 percent in a 610,864 turnout. Chicago has 1,587,153 registered voters (RVs), of whom 38.6 percent turned-out for the runoff. That means 612,641 DID NOT vote to choose a mayor. That number, when combined with Vallas’s 292,420, means 905,061 Chicagoans DID NOT cast their vote for Johnson.

And that number, when factored into Chicago’s 2,761,625 population (which includes non-adults and non-citizens), hypothetically means 2,443,181 Chicagoans DID NOT cast a ballot for Johnson. So the new mayor got 52.1 percent of the turnout, 20 percent of the RVs, and 11.5 percent of the city population.

Vallas would have won if more than 2.8 percent of the 905,061 non-voters cast a ballot for him. Vallas would also have won if there were fewer Far Left White and Latino voters. But there weren’t.

There’s definitely no mandate for Johnson’s borderline Socialist agenda, and capitulation to CTU’s dictates, but winning elections is all about motivating and mobilizing one’s base. That’s exactly what Johnson did. He used CTU’s money to get 122,093 votes on Feb. 28, and that 21.6 percent was enough to get him into the runoff with Vallas, the only White candidate, who got 32.9 percent (185,743 votes).

Johnson ran 27,223 votes ahead of Lori Lightfoot, who got 16.8 percent, and 44,871 votes ahead of Chuy Garcia, who got 13.7 percent. Both fashion themselves as progressives and personify the contemporary obsession with identity politics, but Johnson astutely positioned himself as the Leftmost of the Left. That, combined with the city’s rapidly changing age demographic, gave him a path.

FACT ONE: The real story of 2023 is that in a far Left city like Chicago, which is becoming on a par with NYC, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle, Vallas actually came within 26,024 votes of winning. That will never again be replicated. No non-Woke White will ever be mayor. Or, for that matter, will anybody who is not Woke ever be mayor? And maybe even not Black.

It should be remembered that Vallas did run for governor in 2022 as a Democrat, and for lieutenant governor in 2014 with Pat Quinn, losing both races. But he seriously considered switching parties in 2010 to run against Todd Stroger (remember him) for county board president as a Republican. Vallas is more an opportunist than a Leftist.

Garcia proved that the Latino vote is a snoring, not a slumbering giant. Latinos are 29 percent of the city population (compared to Blacks at 31 and Whites at 48) and growing fast. But the well-known Garcia got a dismal 13.7 percent on Feb. 28, largely because the near-Northwest Side’s younger Puerto Ricans voted Woke and for Johnson. Garcia should have got in the upper 20s and made the runoff.

That gulf was obvious on April 4 (see chart): The 7 Puerto Rican wards (25-26-30-31-33-35-36) went 57.4 percent for Johnson and cast 71,266 votes while the Southwest Side’s 6 Mexican-American wards (10-12-14-15-22-23) went just 37.1 percent for Johnson and cast 37,412 votes. This intra-ethnic and ideological division will persist.

Unlike Lightfoot, who built no base, Johnson’s base is rock-solid as long as he is perceived as delivering on his agenda. He is a CPS teacher, CTU organizer, and CTU puppet. Public sector unions will now dominate City Hall, replacing the trades. Johnson could be around for several terms. But by then Chicago will surely be a Utopia-on-Earth  and every Chicagoan a convivial  comrade. And “wealth,” of course, will be a thing to be shared, not earned.

In the 7 Lakefront wards south of Fullerton, including River North, the Loop and Wicker Park (1-2-11-32-34-42-43), Vallas got 62.2 percent. In the 6 wards north of Fullerton (40-44-46-47-48-49), Johnson got 62.7 percent. Vallas won the Lakefront by 4,653 votes; he needed to hit 10,000.

FACT TWO: The other story is that (1) the “Oldsters” are getting older, dying or moving to Florida, that (2) the younger types are getting married and moving to the suburbs, and that (3) younger (under age 45) Woke/Leftists, particularly singles and LGBTQ who are likely renters not property owners, are taking charge, even though they are nowhere near a majority. Racial and cultural (identity) issues have eclipsed socio-economic (class) issues. “Expressing” oneself is now more important than general quality-of-life, such as property taxes, water bills, pension obligations and crime. I mean, who VOTES for a tax increase?

A critical yardstick for Vallas was to 67-70 percent of the over-45 vote, from all racial groups. He got 62 percent. That spelled his doom.

The Feb. 28 Round One turnout was 566,973 but it spiked to 610,864 in the runoff, an increase of 43,891. And those were NOT Vallas votes. Johnson upped his Feb. 28 vote by 196,351 and Vallas his by 106,667. Johnson got his surge from young voters and Black voters.  After finishing second on Feb. 28 the prospect of a truly Far Left mayor loomed as a true reality. They turned out for Johnson.

FACT THREE: The Vallas runoff playbook depended on 4 factors: (1) That turnout decrease to the low 520-530,000, the presumption being that Older, Whiter (and Mexican-American) voters who cast a ballot on Feb. 28 would vote again, but that there would be a fall-off among Blacks and the youn. Instead, turnout was up to the low 600,000s.

(2) That Vallas would garner at least half of Garcia’s vote (77,222), which was concentrated in his congressional district. He got 62.8 percent in the 6 Southwest Side Latino wards (10-12-14-15-22-23) in an anemic 37,412 turnout. His margin was 10,140. Vallas fared far less well in the Puerto Rican wards (25-26-30-31-33-35-36), getting 42.6 percent in a higher 71,266 turnout. Johnson beat him by 10,418. So the Latino vote was a wash.

(3) That Vallas would get Willie Wilson’s vote (51,567), of which 80 percent came from older, churchgoing Blacks. This Vallas did, helped by Wilson’s endorsement. He got 27,400 (21.5 percent) in the 12 South Side Black wards (3-4-5-6-7-8-9-16-17-18-20-21) and 12,728 (28.3 percent) in the 5 West Side Black wards (24-27-28-29-37). 

Even though Johnson had no real Black racial base, having chosen to build, as he called it, a “multi-racial, multi-generational coalition,” April 4 proved that Chicago Blacks will usually vote for the Black guy over the White guy when presented that choice. There were nine mayoral candidates in Round One, seven of them Black, getting a combined 304,008 votes. Turnout was down 10 percent, and Vallas got about 24 percent, but Johnson’s Black base vote (132,030) more than offset Vallas’s White base vote (86,673). 

And (4) the city’s White vote (48 percent) didn’t break 62-38 for Vallas, as he expected. but 55-45. The White vote (116,616) in the outlying wards (13-19-38-39-41-45-50), where Vallas got 74.3 percent, was not duplicated along the Lakefront.

Non-Johnson voters have two choices: (1) Be stoic, accept responsibility for not voting, hunker down and wait for 2027. Or (2) call a mover and split for Florida or Idaho before Daley Plaza becomes Red Square. Chicago is becoming a very different place.

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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