April 12, 2023
"CHAMELEON" MATHIAS HANDS GARDINER 53.9% VICTORY IN 45TH WARD

by RUSS STEWART

It’s fun to see people who make fools out of others make fools of themselves. As a result of the 45th Ward aldermanic runoff, much-maligned incumbent Jim Gardiner is probably joyously ecstatic.

Contrary to the expectations of some members of the media and the ward’s substantial Left base, Gardiner rode a tide of support of mayoral candidate Paul Vallas to a relatively narrow but nevertheless impressive 53.9 percent victory. He topped Megan Mathias 9,386-8,016 on April 4 (see unofficial results chart), actually INCREASING his Feb. 28 total of 7,683 by 1,703 votes – a feat his detractors thought was impossible. They deemed him DOA in the runoff after getting 48 percent.

Gardiner’s comeback after years of relentless media negativity is attributable to several factors. First, Vallas won the 45th Ward 11,888-5,186 over Chicago Teachers Union-backed progressive Brandon Johnson, a whopping 68.9 percent. Of the ward’s 29 precincts, Vallas carried 28 by 60 percent or more, 16 of them by more than 70, and five of them (in Edgebrook/Wildwood north of Devon) by over 80. That’s a blowout.

The only precinct won by Johnson was the Independence Park 29th precinct, which he carried with 62 percent.

Vallas got 8,463 votes or 52.3 percent on Feb. 28 which, when added to Willie Wilson’s 1,217, gave the law-and-order ward base 59.9 percent. The combined vote for Johnson (2,737), Chuy Garcia (2,004) and Lori Lightfoot (1,148) was 5,889, or 36.4 percent for the Left base. Vallas added 2,208 votes – about 500 more than Gardiner – to his base in the runoff, getting 11,888, while the Left base shrank by 703. Johnson got 5,186 runoff votes. Turnout was up from 16,178 to 17,074, about a thousand. That number, plus the Left’s falloff and the Vallas undertow, was the turnaround clincher for Gardiner, giving him the votes he needed to win a second term. The remap also helped.

The alderman did lag behind Vallas in precinct performance, but not by too much. He carried 17 of 29 precincts, 2 by over 70 percent (Edgebrook/Wildwood, of course), 8 by over 60, and the rest in the 50-59 range. Gardiner ran well north of Foster Avenue, in his Gladstone Park base. Mathias carried 12 precincts, one with over 80 percent, 2 by over 60 (in her Old Irving base, southeast of Six Corners), and the rest with 50-59.

To be sure, Mathias won 11 more precincts than Johnson, got 2,830 more votes, and improved dramatically on her 16.9 percent Feb. 28 primary showing in the 6-candidate field, upping her vote from 2,689 to 8,016, a gain of 5,327. This she did by (1) getting the endorsements of primary election losers James Suh and Susanna Ernst, as well as state Representative Lindsey LaPointe (D-19) and (2) going negative on Gardiner in her final mailers. And she still lost. How can that be?

Mathias, an attorney, announced her candidacy in April of 2021, campaigned door-to-door for 23 months, claiming to have “knocked on 10,000 doors,” had seven mailings, the Chicago Tribune endorsement and a flawed opponent. Yet she did not and could not connect with voters.
SECOND, she ran a “chameleon campaign,” trying to be pro-police and woke at the same time, or one or the other as was convenient.

“She told the voter what she thought that voter wanted to hear,” said John Garrido about Mathias. “And it got around. She would say different things in different parts of the ward. Nobody trusted her. She had no base.” There’s plenty of chameleons in national and local politics these days. And many of them win.

Garrido, a retired CPD lieutenant and 2011 and 2015 aldermanic candidate who lost to former Alderman John Arena took it upon himself to expose Mathias’ contradictions by posting on social media a photo of Mathias posing in front of her law office during a Black Lives Matter rally after George Floyd’s 2020 murder. She was surrounded by some protesters carrying anti-police signs. That wasn’t a good look in the majority pro-police ward.

Garrido’s PAC paid for a Facebook posting which, he said, had 9,273 reaches, meaning it was viewed at least once, 2,500 clicks on the site, and 10,000 digital impressions, meaning e-mails sent.  With likes and shares, close to 20,000 people viewed it, he said. Alderman Nick Sposato (38th) also chimed in, claiming that Mathias did not attend any of the numerous Support the Police rallies organized by himself, Gardiner and alderman Anthony Napolitano (41st) from 2015 onward. “She’s a phony,” he said. Mathias said she has a history of supporting the police. 

Many voters agreed with that assessment, as 83.1 percent did not vote for her on Feb. 28 and 53.9 percent did not vote for her on April 4. “I won because voters did not believe all the lies and because my office provided great ward services,” said Gardiner, who raised more than $240,000. Mathias expected that perceptions, meaning Gardiner’s poor judgment and temperament, would outweigh issues and her own persona. She was wrong.

AND THIRD, the council’s 2022 ward remap sliced the Woke/Left base by 10-15 percent, removing two precincts in Independence Park and five precincts in Portage Park, areas where Arena won 3-to-1 in 2019, and adding 7 precincts in the north.

2024 WARD COMMITTEEPERSON (D): “We’ll see,” said Gardiner regarding his 2024 intentions to run again for the party post. “It’s early.” But Democratic pre-slating is in June and formal choosing is in August, with petitions on the street after Labor Day. “I’m strongly considering” running in the 45th Ward, said Joe Cook, currently 41st Ward committeeperson (D), whose Edgebrook residence was remapped into the 45th. “I’m not moving.”  The primary is March 19.

In 2019 Gardiner ousted Arena 7,570-5,382, getting 50.9 percent in a 14,858 turnout and barely avoiding a runoff. He upped that to 9,386 this year in a 17,402 turnout, a pickup of 1,816 votes. Since turnout was up by 2,544 it would appear Gardiner got two-thirds of the spike.

Gardiner ran for committeeman (D) in 2020 against Arena-backed Ellen Hill, beating her 5,559-5,267   in a 10,826 turnout. Kim Foxx got 5,076 votes, or 44.1 percent, in that primary where Leftists are a near-majority. And therein lies the risk. Not all of Gardiner’s 9,386 April voters will vote in a Dem primary, but all of Johnson’s 5,186 and Arena’s 5,382 and Hill’s 5,267   WILL VOTE. If Gardiner runs and loses (to Cook or perhaps LaPointe) his credibility will be fractured, again.

Besides, Gardiner has been stripped of his county committee posts. He really has no voice in slating or policy decisions. Expect Gardiner and Cook to work out a deal.

NORTHWEST SIDE WARDS: One election does not a trend or transformation make, but the 45th Ward’s 69.6 percent Vallas vote puts it among the city’s Top Six as least woke (see chart). The 41st gave Vallas 86.9 percent, the 38th 78.8, the 39th 65.2, the 50th 65.9 and the far Southwest Side 19th 73.2.

This is not to say Trumpism is on the march. It’s not. But neither is woke-ism, with the mayoral election essentially split. Whatever Johnson does will impact the economic self-interest of these who voted for him. It’s collectivism when Johnson proclaims that “there’s more than enough for everybody” in Chicago. He wants to take (by taxing) from the haves and give to the have-nots.
As long as those six White aldermen visibly oppose the new mayor they will be hard to beat in 2027. “It’s been a tough first term,” said Gardiner, age 47. But he has somewhat of a path to a lengthy career if he has learned from his mistakes.

As they say, don’t put it in writing unless you want it read back to you, right Jim?

Read more Analysis & Opinion from Russ Stewart at Russstewart.com

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