June 15, 2022
"LEMMING SYNDROME" WILL INSURE PRITZKER'S RE-ELECTION PLUS PRIMARY PREDICTIONS

Free-falling may be enjoyable for a parachutist but catastrophic for a politician. Days before the June 28 primary, Richard Irvin (R), Anna Valencia (D) and Kari Steele (D), who are running, respectively, for governor, secretary of state and assessor, are in free-fall. Something tells me they will lose, and lose spectacularly.

GOVERNOR (R): Lemmings are mouse-like rodents plentiful in the tundra and grasslands of Alaska. A 1958 Disney movie “White Wilderness” falsely portrayed them as herd animals who, when migrating, commit mass suicide by blindly walking off a cliff into the sea. This has become a political metaphor for those who blindly follow political movements or consumer culture.

Illinois Republicans are such a herd, grazing in the grass, mostly ignored and clueless as to why they constantly lose elections. Donald Trump got 40.5 percent in Illinois in 2020. There are five Republicans running for governor, a job J.B. Pritzker (D) won by 713,997 votes in 2018. They are Darren Bailey, Richard Irvin, Jesse Sullivan, Gary Rabine and Paul Schimpf, and all are losing 2-1 to Pritzker in election matchups.

2022 is developing into a Republican “wave” year, much like 2014 (when Bruce Rauner won by 142,284 votes) and 2010 (when Mark Kirk won by 59,220 votes). 2018 was an anti-Trump Democratic wave year. A wave means that one party’s vote surges 5-8 percent across-the-board for every office due the incompetence/unpopularity of the White House party.

The most recent Morning Consult poll, which measures governors’ approval/disapproval, had Pritzker up plus-8, not the best in the country but not bad considering he won with 54 percent in 2018. It would take a wave surge of 10-12 percent to beat him. The same poll has Biden at plus-2 in Illinois.

The early perception was that Aurora mayor Richard Irvin would be the toughest to beat. That’s what billionaire Ken Griffin thought: Just repackage Irvin, a lifelong Democrat, as an anti-crime, tax-cutting, riot-preventing, Madigan-beating and Lightfoot-bashing conservative and spend $20 million. Then it’s Pritzker-Irvin in November. Fakery prevails if well-funded and unexposed. Griffin Inc. presumed Irvin’s opponents would have no money to fight back. But he failed to anticipate that other billionaires – Pritzker and Richard Uihlein – would get into the game. Uihlein put about $10 million behind Bailey, an obscure Downstate farmer and state senator.

The Machiavellian Pritzker, rather than HOPE Republicans nominated their least-electable candidate, decided to spend millions to make sure they did. The Pritzker-funded state party (DPI) and Democratic Governors Association (DGA) designed a pincer plan with mailers and TV ads to vilify Bailey as a “dangerous conservative” and “too conservative” for IL, blasting Bailey as pro-gun, anti-abortion, pro-Trump and anti-COVID mandates.

Those stances repulse the liberal Democratic base and moderate independents, but the Republican base, less than 40 percent in IL, eats it up. They vote with their heart especially in a field of unknowns. For them, purity supersedes electability. Bailey is clearly the most fringe candidate. And then DGA/DPI went after Irvin, highlighting his past praise for Pritzker, crime in Aurora and pay-to-play with city contracts. Irvin’s facade crumbled.

Irvin announced in February, and initial polls pegged him at 13 percent. His media/mailer blitz had him up to 31 percent by early May.

A May 24 Politico poll had the Bailey/Irvin/Rabine/Sullivan numbers at 25/31/8/11 with 22 undecided. Then his free-fall began. A June 7 Fabrizio poll put it at 27/20/12/13 with 24 undecided. Bailey was creeping-up. Another June 7 poll by Public Policy put it at 32/17/6/14 with 27 undecided.

By June 11 an Ogden-Fry poll put it at 31/17/8/11 with 30 undecided. And a June 10 Trafalgar poll put it at 38/20/9/12 with 16 undecided. There was obvious movement toward Bailey. Had Irvin hit bottom with a splat? Apparently not. A June 15 fake Remington Research poll, paid for by Sullivan, put it at 27/13/8/27 with 26 undecided. Bailey is running away with it, despite Sullivan’s attempts with his flurry of pro-life commercials. Pritzker will get his wish: Bailey will win with about 44 percent. As for Irvin, it looks like he has splattered.

Prediction: Bailey is the kind of candidate who is anathema to younger voters. He is Bruce Rauner with more heft. He is no threat to Pritzker. But Sullivan is another matter. He is a political mannequin who can be dressed or re-dressed at will – either by his handlers or by Pritzker, who will spend up to $150 million to win.

If Roe v. Wade is struck down, expect Pritzker to make the election all about abortion rights, even though IL has codified them. In a turnout of 725,000, Sullivan will upset Bailey by about 20,000 votes.

SECRETARY OF STATE (D): It’s tough to beat Pritzker, Durbin, Duckworth and White. But Alexi Giannoulias is going to do it. And that’s largely because Anna Valencia, endorsed by all of them, has been undoing it.

Valencia was appointed Chicago city clerk in 2017 by Rahm Emanuel, and crafted a squeaky clean, holier-than-thou image. Despite streamlining some of the clerk’s office services, her image has begun to unravel amid allegations that she assisted her lobbyist husband Reyahd Kazmi in procuring contracts in New Orleans and Chicago. The mini-scandal has gotten some media publicity, developed legs, and has created real baggage. “Unethical Anna Valencia” proclaim the ads paid on behalf of Giannoulias.

Giannoulias is an aging political retread, elected state treasurer in 2006 at age 30, but then losing his U.S. senate bid in 2010 by 59,220 votes to Kirk. Giannoulias has been campaigning since early 2021 for Jesse White’s job, and has developed a coalition of Downstate county chairmen along with the bulk of African-American committeepersons in Chicago and Cook County. He has been endorsed by a number of Latino aldermen and has solid union support. His campaign theme is “better service,” meaning more online access for license testing and renewals.

The office has almost 2,000 jobs, all at-will, which makes the occupant a very visible and powerful statewide figure. If elected, Giannoulias will surely run for governor when Pritzker departs.

Valencia has been attacking Giannoulias’s ties to the now-defunct family-owned Broadway Bank, which was shut down by federal regulators because of questionable loans, including $20 million to a crime figure. In an odd twist, Valencia’s recent TV ads show her in a doctor’s office where she proclaims her support of abortion rights. What does that have to do with driver’s licenses, license plates and incorporations?

Prediction: In a Democratic turnout of 1,200,000, much lower than 2018’s 1,324,548, Valencia will get a decent vote among liberals on the Lakefront and suburbs, but Giannoulias will win by 75,000 votes.

ASSESSOR (D): In a Democratic primary a White man almost never defeats and African-American woman. 2022 will be a non-never year. MWRD president Kari Steele has run an insipid, underwhelming campaign against incumbent Fritz Kaegi, whose 4-year performance has been underwhelming, and sometimes borderline incompetent.

During the height of COVID (2020) Kaegi unilaterally decided to give assessment reductions to owners of residential properties he thought were impacted by COVID. He reduced valuations, effective on the 2021 and 2022 tax bills. Since countywide spending by tax units of government didn’t decline, the tax burden got shifted to commercial properties, largely in the Loop, even though they were suffering from COVID-caused vacancies and revenue losses. This, in turn, throttled new commercial construction to this day. And this, in turn, meant a lot of members of Local 150 of the Operating Engineers, who run heavy equipment, were not working. Local 150 contributed $1 million to Steele.

Steele used some of that for TV ads ripping Kaegi for “giving tax breaks to Trump Tower,” but otherwise has articulated no reason to elect her. She is relying on identity politics.

Kaegi was nominated in 2018 over the scandal-plagued Joe Berrios by 327,769-243,425, getting 45.5 percent in a 719,899 turnout. Kaegi was the “reform” candidate and ran well in Black and liberal areas. This year Kaegi is the slated candidate, which gives him a major edge. Steele is not Kim Foxx, who is well-known in the African-American community. In 2020 Bill Conway got 10 percent of the Black vote. On June 28 Kaegi will get 35 percent-plus of the Black vote, largely because he’s slated. Prediction: Kaegi will win 55-45.

COUNTY COMMISSIONER, 9TH DISTRICT (R): Matt Podgorski is founder of NWSGOP Club, a Republican precinct operation. His opponent is Mark Hosty. Podgorski said his workers have hit 13,000 households and will have a strong GOTV effort. Prediction: Podgorski will win with 65-70 percent.

OTHER PREDICTIONS: In congressional primaries, victors will be Jonathan Jackson (1st), riding a tide of nostalgia, Gilbert Villegas (3rd), resisting tide of woke nonsense, and Sean Casten (6th), who faces Mary Newman. George Cardenas will defeat Tammy Wendt for Board of Review and Steven Swedlow, who spent $1 million, mostly on TV ads, will win the Lakefront 8th subcircuit judgeship. Slated Dan Pogorzelski will defeat the appointed woman for the 2-year MWRD vacancy. And state reps Lindsey LaPointe and Mike Kelly, as well as state Senator Rob Martwick, will win their NW Side primaries.

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