February 23, 2022
TRUMP'S 'SCOTUS' LEGACY IMPACTS 2022 ELECTION

Democrats say that elections having consequences. Biden-Harris won in 2020 so the Biden-Harris agenda is entitled to be enacted and implemented - either by executive order or by a recalcitrant Congress.

But a much more consequential election was 2016, when Trump beat Clinton, even though she got 2,868,691 more popular votes but he won the electoral vote 304-227. And the consequence of that election is that Trump got three Supreme Court picks, which enlarged the Court's conservative majority from 5-4 to 6-3.

This drives the Left nuts.

"They are unrepresentative," they say. Maybe even a "threat to democracy." Pack the Court with Biden appointees and term-limit the 9 justices. Not going to happen.

The Big Six - justices Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh and Barrett - will be around for a long time. And even if the most-senior Clarence Thomas retires, then there will still be a Big Five.

Some Democrats love to re-imagine. Like policing. Or how about the 2016 election? Had Clinton won (or, to be correct, been installed as president), she would have had a Republican Congress which would have blocked any liberal initiatives, had the Republican majority enlarge in 2018, suffered through the 2020 COVID pandemic, and lost the 2020 election. Trump could have been the winner in his second run. But she would have had two court appointments. No Gorsuch. No Kavanaugh. That would have been a 6-3 liberal majority.

And the Ginsberg replacement, which arose in Oct. 2020, would have been delayed until 2021.
What is going to happen is a bunch of state legislatures which have passed partisan congressional district remaps as in IL, NY, OR, MD, CA and TX, NC, GA, TN, OH, AZ and MI won't have them overturned by the Supreme Court. A Feb. 7 5-4 SCOTUS decision overturned a three-judge panel ruling in the Alabama remap, which argued that a 27 percent Black population mandated 2 seats.

The basic Left/Right SCOTUS divide focused on interpreting the U.S. Constitution, a document written in the 1780s. Must it be interpreted literally? Or is it evolving to adapt to current events (like the Roe v. Wade abortion case in 1973)? The landmark Baker v. Carr case in 1963 established the premise of one man/one vote. There could be no voter dilution. All legislative districts, from Congress to legislatures to city councils to county boards to school boards had to be equal in population.

But then came the 1964 Civil Rights Act and the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) and the dilution began. Racial minorities were not just entitled to vote, but they were entitled to a pre-ordained result - like the election of a minority. Any interference by a state legislature to stymie that result on a congressional level, like scooping Blacks out of a White-majority and/or packing African-American voters into a majority-minority district, was prohibited. But that's exactly what happened. Majority-minority districts were created, and the theory of non-retrogression mandated that once created meant never abolished. Once a congressional district goes Black/Hispanic, it can never go back, regardless of population changes.

In the South that led to an alliance of convenience between African-Americans and Republicans, which still exists. Scoop and pack was (and is) the norm. AL has a 6R-1D delegation, GA 8R-6D, MS 3R-1D, LA 5R-1D, SC 6R-1D, NC 8R-5D and TN 7R-2D (soon to be 8-1). Each has a Republican legislature. There is, as expected, selective outrage on the Left - and lawsuits against the new maps in TX and GA.

The new premise is "parity." That means that congressional delegations must reflect each party's popular vote for president. That began to work prior to 2016, with a state court in PA and a federal court in NC and FL voiding Republican maps which created 8R-5D, and 16R-11D delegations, respectively, in closely divided states.

That won't happen again. The Constitution mandates that the states draw their districts according to population, and political motivation is not discriminatory. The current U.S. Supreme Court, as demonstrated in the AL case, is even moving away from VRA racial quotas. Democrats have a House majority and the top-down Nancy Pelosi command is for Democratic-run states to use creative cartography to get rid of Republicans. "Parity" is meaningless for Democrats when it comes to keeping power. And the same goes for Republicans when they are in power.

NEW YORK: The House delegation is now 19D-8R, with one seat to be lost. The Democrats hold the governorship and 43-20/106-43 majorities in the Senate/Assembly. The new map projects a 22D-4R, combining Homeland Security committee ranking Republican John Katko's Syracuse district with Rochester, combining two Upstate districts (R), adding more of Brooklyn to the Staten Island (R) district and making the east Long Island/Hamptons district more Democratic. But there are now three open seats on Long Island and Republicans have viable candidates in the two districts between Westchester and Albany. Outlook: Given anti-Biden trends, it will be 18D-9R.

ILLINOIS: Democrats have 41D-18R and 72D-46R majorities. Ever predictable, even with Mike Madigan gone, the legislature's new map (less one seat) projects a 13D-3R congressional delegation by combining four Downstate (R) districts into two, and creating a convoluted new East St. Louis/Springfield/ Champaign/Decatur district for Nikki Budzinski (D), Governor J.B. Pritzker's former top aide.

Lauren Underwood (D) got 51 percent in 2020 and Cheri Bustos (D) is retiring. Democrats bolstered both districts. Outlook: Republicans may surprise. A mega-funded campaign by Aurora mayor Richard Irvin will have a trickle-down in what will be an anti-Biden year.

CALIFORNIA: Democrats have 42D-11R delegation and 30D-10R/60D-19R legislative majorities. It's tough to find any Republicans to exterminate, but Democrats made the seats of five Republicans more Democratic. It's now tough to find any vulnerable Democrats in a state where Trump got 34.3 percent. With "parity" the delegation should be 35D-18R. Outlook: Republicans will gain one seat.

MARYLAND: Democrats, led by majority leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD), did their job here in 2011, absorbing the mostly-Republican western Frederick-Hagerstown district into two Washington, D.C. suburban Democratic districts. This is the party blueprint: Squeeze out seats. 6D-2R became 7D-1R and won't change anytime soon.

OREGON: This is really two states. East of the Cascades is like Idaho, west is like California, and Portland is like San Francisco. The city had about 150 nights of riots in 2020 and the mayor is running for governor. The delegation is 4D-1R, with a new seat. The legislature (18D-12R/37D-23R) rammed through a new map which creates two safe (D) Portland-area districts and three marginal but Democratic-leaning districts from Salem to the CA border. Outlook: Democrats got greedy. They could have conceded the new seat to a Republican. But anti-Portland polarization and governor Kate Brown's COVID obsession have created a huge pushback. Outlook: The delegation will be 2D-4R.

TENNESSEE: Call this the "Katko payback." NY Dems took out Katko so TN Republicans (with 27R-6D/73R-26D majorities) took out 32-year Democrat Jim Cooper, chopping-up his Nashville district and spreading the central city among 4 heavily suburban/rural districts. Outlook: 7R-2D will now be 8R-1D, with the Memphis seat staying Democratic.

GEORGIA: Republicans have been dominant for 20 years, but 2020 was a disaster: Losing both Senate seats and Trump by 13,779. The Black GA population is 35 percent and growing, especially in the Atlanta suburbs. The delegation was 10R-4D until 2018, with the 4 D's being Black. Dems have since won 2 seats north and northeast of Atlanta. Republicans wisely did a scoop-and-pack, extruding as many Republican areas as possible from both districts (and creating a new Republican district) and packing Blacks and Democrats into the other district. Outlook; It will 9R-5D for a while.

OHIO: Trump won by 446,841 votes in 2016 and by 475,669 in 2020. Republicans hold the governorship and legislature by astounding 25R/8D and 64R/35D margins. The delegation is 12R-4D, with a one seat loss. Democrats' seats are in Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo and Youngstown/Steubenville. The latter district went for Trump and was absorbed into a Republican district. Outlook: 12R-4D will become an astounding 13R-2D.

TEXAS: A lawsuit is already challenging the map on VRA grounds. The delegation is 23R-13D, down from 25R-11D prior to 2018. Trump won by 631,221 votes in 2020. The state gained 2 seats, and Republicans wisely decided to concede Democrats 11 seats, bolster their 23 incumbents, grab the new seats and focus on winning 2 Tex-Mex border districts where the 150,000-a month flood of immigrants is a "crisis." Outlook: 23R-13D will be 27R-11D and last for a decade.

NORTH CAROLINA: Republicans won the legislature in 2010, and hold 28R-22D/68R-52D majorities with no governor (D) veto. The delegation was 10-3D until 2018, with Dems holding 2 Black-majority districts and the Raleigh-Durham seat. A federal judge overturned the map on "parity" in 2017 and SCOTUS did not intervene. Outlook: The state got another seat and one African-American district is trending Republican. Outlook: Since parity is off the table, Republicans drew a map that could potentially give them an 11R-3D delegation, but more likely 10R-4D. Elections do, indeed, have consequences.