March 3, 2021


Absence makes the heart grow fonder, I guess.

Politically speaking, I have a feeling Donald Trump’s departure from the White House makes many hearts of Americans grow fonder.

And as the Biden-Harris administration unveils its left-leaning agenda that is proving to be just as polarizing as Trump’s was, the memories of conservatives and Republicans will get fonder for the ex-president. A country divided indeed.

After all, Trump got 74,216,154 votes to Biden’s 81,268,924. In 2016’s Clinton-Trump race it was 65,853,516-62,984,825. So the pro-Trump vote was up 11,231,329, but the anti-Trump vote was up by 15,415,408. With America becoming “less White” and less old (and thereby less Republican), it will take a disastrous Biden-Harris term for Republicans to win in 2024. Don’t count that out. But Republicans can only win if 10-15 percent of the Democratic base does not turn out, being disillusioned with their president. A Trump candidacy will quickly cure any such disillusionment.

The Feb. 26-28 Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando gave Trump a tumultuous reception, proving anew that Republicans are most energized and united when they have policies to BE AGAINST. Just 6 weeks into the Biden-Harris administration, conservatives already have a lot to be against. The CPAC attendees, largely pro-Trump activists, were polled on their 2024 choice: Trump was the choice of 55 percent, with FL governor Ron DeSantis at 23, SD governor Kristi Noem at 11 – both are popular anti-Lockdown governors – with Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo and Ted Cruz in single digits.

It is notable that with the 2024 field totally speculative and fluid, 45 percent of Trumpsters DID NOT want a 2024 re-run. They want somebody fresh and electable.

GEORGIA: The Democrats’ Jan. 5 double-win of both Republican-held Senate seats exemplifies the necessity of GOTV (Get-Out-the-Vote) efforts. In short, make it EASY to vote. COVID-19 was a great pretext to avoid in-person voting. But Stacey Abrams (D), who lost 1,978,408-1,923,685 to Brian Kemp (R) in 2018, got a pre-COVID order from a federal court to mandate the pre-election mailing of ballots to everybody who is registered to vote (RV). No more requesting an absentee ballot or standing in long election day lines. Thus was born the concept of “harvesting,” the collecting of ballots by campaign workers and the dumping of them in mailboxes.

The state’s population is 10.6 million, with 5.1 million RVs prior to 2020. Abrams launched an intensive voter registration drive during 2019-20. Trump won GA 2,089,104-1,877,963 in 2016 in a turnout of 3,967,067. Trump lost GA 2,473,633-2,461,854 (a margin of 11,779 votes) in 2020 in a turnout of 4,935,481. That was an uptick of nearly 1 million more voters, of which about 600,000 voted Democratic.

The key was demographics: The state is one-quarter rural, one-quarter urban (Atlanta), and one-half suburban. Latest census stats put the African-American population at 31.9 percent, concentrated in Atlanta and the DeKalb and Fulton county suburbs, Savannah, and the southwest Black Belt around Albany. The White population is 51.8 percent, with Hispanics 5.9 and Asians 4.1. In times past the Black turnout was languid. But with African-Americans on the ballot (Abrams in 2018 and Raphael Warnock in 2020), turnout has soared from 50 to 80 percent – 95 percent Democratic. A Republican has to win 80 percent-plus of the white vote to triumph.

That didn’t happen in the runoffs, where the turnout was 4.5 million, only 400,000 less than the presidential. And there were no split votes. Warnock beat Kelly Loeffler (R) 2,289,911-2,195,841 and Jon Ossoff beat David Perdue (R) 2,269,923-2,214,979. Abrams is running against Kemp again in 2022, and Warnock is up for re-election. Republicans are on the verge of becoming Georgia’s permanent minority party.

TEXAS: The state’s population is 26.5 million, but it is on a different trajectory. The White population is 41.4 percent and the Black population is 12.3 percent. The key is the Hispanic voter, mostly Mexican-Americans, who are 32.1 percent and are not monolithically liberal and Democratic. Trump won TX 4,685,047-3,877,868 in 2016 in a 8.5 million turnout, a margin of 807,179. Trump won 5,890,347-5,259,126 in 2020, a margin of 631,221. Biden’s vote was up 1.4 million, but Trump’s vote was up by 1.2 million.

Hispanic men broke significantly for Trump. And south Texas, heavily Mexican-American, does not support open borders. They supported Trump’s Wall. Hispanic Republicans won in two-Mexican-American majority districts Democrats thought they would take in 2020, and kept their 23-13 congressional delegation edge. Republicans hold every statewide office and control the legislature, despite huge Democratic spending to flip the TX House. The Red-to-Blue effort failed.

Governor Greg Abbott (R) has not put Texas in COVID lockdown, and is generally popular. Two Democrats who did not get Biden cabinet appointments, Beto O’Rourke and Julian Castro, are eyeing Abbott in 2022. O’Rourke lost 4,260,553-4,045,632 to Ted Cruz (R) for senator in 2018 and ran briefly for president in 2020, as did Castro, Obama’s HUD secretary. If the Biden-Harris immigration policies prove to be disastrous, TX will become MORE Republican.

The state’s political rising star is Railroad commissioner George P. Bush, son of Jeb Bush and nephew of George W. Bush. His mother is Hispanic and he speaks fluent Spanish. Cruz is running for president in 2024 and Bush is the logical Republican to run for the open seat, probably against O’Rourke or Castro.

FLORIDA: Like Texas, the demographics differ greatly from GA. The population is 19.5 million, of which 4.5 million are seniors. About a 1,000 people a day move into the state, and about 500 people a day die in the state. The demographics are 53.3 percent White, 21.4 Hispanic (split evenly between Cuban-Americans in South Miami and Puerto Ricans around Orlando), and 16 percent Black.

Trump won FL 4,617,886-4,504,975 in 2016, a margin of 112,911 in a turnout of 9.1 million. The president won 5,668,731-5,297,045 in 2020, a margin of 371,686 in a turnout of 11 million. Trump upped his vote by 1 million, and Democrats by 750,000. The senior and Cuban vote moved strongly to Trump, as did the senior Jewish vote on the East Coast.

The liberal media for refusing a COVID lockdown bashed Governor DeSantis, but he has been proven prescient. The FL economy is robust: Restaurants, bars, hotels, beaches and amusement parks are open, as are schools. Nursing home deaths were minimal. That starkly compares to NY, CA, Mi and IL. DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum, the Black Tallahassee mayor 4,076,186-4,043,723 in 2018. He will win big in 2022 and will likely supplant Trump as the 2024 frontrunner. Fellow Floridian Senator Marco Rubio, who ran for president in 2016, is eating his dust.

OHIO: This blue-collar state has become increasingly Republican. Its population is 11.5 million, and is 80 percent White. Census data indicates that 45 percent of the population have a high school diploma or less and only 16 percent have a college degree. Trump won OH 3,154,834-2,679,165 in 2020, a margin of 475,669. That debunks the working-class-for-Joe myth.           

NORTH CAROLINA:  The terrain is not much different than GA, except that NC grows tobacco rather than peanuts. Trump won 2,362,631-2,189,316 in 2016 and 2,758,775-2,684,292 in 2020, Trump got 400,000 more votes, but his margin was down from 344,315 to 74,483.

The population is 9.8 million and is 65 percent White, 22 Black and 9 percent Hispanic. A Republican can win with 60 percent of the White vote and a low Black turnout. There is an open Senate seat in 2022 and national Democrats are pushing Erica Smith, a Black woman, to be the nominee. The Republican will likely be former congressman Mark Walker, a Christian minister. Other possible candidates include ex-governor Pat McCrory and Trump daughter-in law Lara Trump.

ILLINOIS: Trump got walloped 3,090,729-2,146,015 in 2016, a margin of 944,714, and got re-walloped 3,171,715-2,446,891 in 2020, a margin of 724,824. Whoa. What is going on here? Illinois, that Democratic bastion, produced 300,000 more Trump votes than in 2016, and just 80,000 more Biden-Harris votes. Illinois may not be as hopeless as Republicans think.

2021 ELECTIONS: New York City, that citadel of elitism, finance, political correctness, lockdowns and mayoral incompetence, has an election on Nov. 2. There are over 30 candidates running. Incumbent Bill de Blasio is termed out. The race is a mishmash of race, “wokeness” and reality. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is not running, but her progressive/woke acolytes are behind Scott Stringer, the White NYC comptroller, who is getting 12-15 percent in the polls. Blacks have coalesced behind Brooklyn Borough president Eric Adams, who is at 15-20 percent, but his base is split by Maya Wiley, an anti-police activist, and Citigroup executive Raymond McGuire.

The frontrunner is millionaire entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who ran for president in 2020. Yang, an Asian-American, is polling around 25 percent.

But 2021’s marquee race will be California’s gubernatorial recall, which will be held in October if certified. The deadline to file 1.5 million petition signatures to remove Gavin Newsom is March 17. Over 1.9 million have been gathered. Newsom should be very worried.