September 19, 2018
GRAVITAS, NOTORIETY DRIVE 2019 CHICAGO MAYORAL CAMPAIGN

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

Decisions, decisions and more decisions. Voters do not like to make decisions. They instead prefer the simplicity of choices - like do we or do we not toss out the incumbent? A decision demands both concentration and some informed knowledge - like who has the gravitas and qualifications to do the job in question.

That can be tough. Especially when Chicago's next mayor has to find $1 billion in new revenue to fund 90 percent of the city's pensions, address crime, implement some upgrade of police "oversight" and keep Chicago attractive for corporate investment and growth.

As the 2019 field forms, with 15 announced candidates as of Sept. 17, and another 19 in the considering or pondering stage, and with the petition filing period between Nov. 26 to Dec.3, there could potentially be upwards of 20 candidates on the Feb. 26 ballot. And there is no dearth of aspirants with gravitas.

Thus far there is a former U.S. Secretary of Commerce, White House chief-of-staff and Daley Dynasty legacy (Bill Daley), a former police superintendent (Garry McCarthy), a Circuit Court clerk (Dorothy Brown Cook), a former police board president (Lori Lightfoot), a millionaire businessman (Willie Wilson), a former CPS CEO (Paul Vallas). Pondering entry are a county board president (Toni Preckwinkle), a state comptroller (Susana Mendoza), an about-to-be-congressman and 2015 mayoral loser (Chuy Garcia), a CPS board president and 2011 mayoral loser (Gery Chico), a former U.S. Secretary of Education and CPS CEO (Arne Duncan), and a retiring 25-year Alderman Ricardo Munoz (22nd). A veritable phalanx of other incumbent aldermen are chomping at the bit: Scott Waguespack (32nd), Proco Joe Moreno (1st), Ameya Pawar (47th), Roderick Sawyer (6th), Ray Lopez (15th), Leslie Hairston (5th) and Tom Tunney (44th), along with city treasurer Kurt Summers. But each would have to forfeit their current post to run for mayor with the exception of Pawar, who is retiring.

These are not lightweights. All are credible. All have lengthy records in public office or public service, which could be eminently attackable. And all have the potential to raise substantial campaign cash, but certainly not in the realm of the $20-25 million that Emanuel would have brought to the table. The expectation is that $10 million would be necessary to win. Everybody else currently in the field - Dock Walls, Amara Enyla, Bill Kelly, Jerry Joyce, Ja'Mal Green, John Kozlar, Troy LaRaviere, and Neal Sales-Griffin - are what is called OBITER DICTA, a Latin phrase for a surplus of words in a legal document. They are inconsequential, and serve only to clutter the field, getting at best a combined 2 to 3 percent and making a runoff a certainty.

But in the era of twitter, Facebook and instantaneous access to the social media, gravitas and reams of money are less persuasive than notoriety, which is defined as being well-known and publicly discussed, even if in a negative context. The key is to JUST GET KNOWN. To BE THERE in the voters' consciousness. To succeed a candidate must establish some hook and carve out some base, either financial or demographic, like Daley being the safe business-as-usual, status quo candidate; McCarthy the stop-bashing-the-police and law-and-order candidate; Lightfoot the LGBTQ-friendly and let's-have-more-police-oversight candidate; Garcia the I-should-have-won-in-2015 candidate, even though he is never going to be a stonewall against future tax hikes; Mendoza the I-stood-up-to-Rauner candidate, because she publicly knocked his budgetary policies; and Munoz the I-opposed -Emanuel-the-most in council votes candidate.

It takes a minimum of 12,500 nominating petition signatures to get on the Feb. 26 non-partisan primary ballot, with the top two finishers moving on to an April runoff. The rule-of-thumb is that a candidate must file thrice the minimum, or 30-35,000 signatures, to deter a petition challenge. "There will only be 5 or 6 candidates," predicted Alderman Nick Sposato (38th), noting that the filing threshold will be too high for most of the second-tier candidates. What will be critical to every candidate will be ballot position, with the top two or three being advantageous, making being buried among the other 8-10 a real problem. Plus each candidate has to TARGET and MOTIVATE their base, which takes money for TV ads, but not necessarily for a social media barrage.

2019 is looming as a generational divide. The old-timers like Daley and Vallas, and probably Preckwinkle, will rely on the electronic media, particularly TV, which is expensive but not watched by the Millennials and most people under the age of 40. Utilizing the social media is cost-effective and voter-targeted. The reality of modern society is that younger people are glued to their iPhone, get their news from their iPhone, and generally believe whatever crap they read on their iPhone. To be sure, at least 80 percent of Chicago's 1,494,199 registered voters will get their information from the electronic (TV) or print media, but whichever candidate perfects the best social media/iPhone communication strategy will get into the runoff.

Chicago has had 49 elected mayors since 1837, when the city was incorporated, and they had 2-year terms until 1907, when 4-year terms began. In the 30 mayoral elections since 1907, including special elections in 1977 and 1989, an incumbent has been on the Democratic primary or election ballot 23 times, and has won 17 of those contests. Chicago had a two-tier system, with Democratic and Republican primary victors facing-off in the election. Only in 1915, 1927, 1955, 1979, 1983 and 1989 did an incumbent mayor lose. And only in 1915, 1923, 1947 and 2011 was an incumbent not on the ballot. The Republican-controlled state legislature in 1996 changed the Chicago electoral system, abolishing partisan election for mayor and creating a primary/runoff system, effective 1999, similar to that of the city's aldermen.

That was not disadvantageous to the white Democratic establishment in the Washington and post-Washington era, which in 1987, 1989 and 1991 required winning both the Democratic primary and the election against an independent black Democrats. That didn't happen in 1987 but did happen in 1989, when Rich Daley won the primary over acting Mayor Eugene Sawyer and the election over "Harold Washington Party" candidate Tim Evans, and happened again in 1991.

But enough of ancient history. Who wins in 2019? Some of the aspirants have a crossover base. LIGHTFOOT, who is openly lesbian, has LGBTQ, women, blacks and anti-police activists. If Lopez or Tunney run, that fractures the LGBTQ base, which is 5-7 percent of the vote since they are also openly gay. DALEY and VALLAS, have a throwback base, which are those who want a safe choice, like another white male as mayor. Vallas has been in the race for over 6 months and has generated little traction, and it's safe to say that Chicagoans want another Daley as mayor as much as Americans wanted Jeb Bush as president.

If GARCIA, MUNOZ, MENDOZA, CHICO, MORENO and/or LOPEZ run, the Hispanic vote, about 150,000, will be split geographically and ethnically between the North Side Puerto Ricans and the South Side Mexican-Americans. The most viable Hispanic candidate would be Garcia, currently a county commissioner who will be elected to Congress on Nov. 6. If he runs, the Hispanic field will be cleared, excepting perhaps Chico. Garcia had nothing on-hand in his state account. Mendoza, who is running for re-election, had $1,399,726 on-hand. Munoz had $22,616, Moreno $505,074, and Lopez $52,853.

WILSON got 11 percent in his 2015 mayoral bid, and has plenty of self-funding money. He is the least unknown of the male black candidates in the field, which include Walls, Sales-Griffin, LaRaviere and Green. There are three black women - Lightfoot, Cook and Enyla - running. All await the decision of PRECKWINKLE, the 8-year county board president and former South Side alderman who is the county Democratic chairman. The black wards will deliver 200,000-plus primary votes, and up to 300,000 if really energized. Emanuel won the 2015 Emanuel-Garcia runoff because he garnered 60 percent of the black vote. Preckwinkle did not endear herself to voters with the short-lived soda tax, but she did manage to easily win her 2018 primary against Bob Fioretti. She had $196,472 on-hand as of June 30. Preckwinkle is on the Nov. 6 ballot for re-election. One interesting dynamic is that, if Preckwinkle becomes mayor, commissioner John Daley, the board's finance committee chairman, would likely become board president. Preckwinkle would not clear out the black field, but would get a sizeable vote from white liberals, especially females. She would be a lock for the runoff, and would undermine Lightfoot's black community support.

White voters, comprising about 40 percent of the electorate, are the critical component, with half that number living along the North Lakefront from the north Loop to Rogers Park, plus the circle around the Loop and the South Loop. These are largely upscale voters who have no special affinity for any of the candidates. And the other half live in the misnamed "white ethnic" wards on the Northwest and Southwest sides, which has a huge and well-to-do working class base with plenty of cops and firefighters. This is McCarthy's base.

My early prediction: If Preckwinkle and Garcia run, they would finish one-two, but only if there is no other black or Hispanic competitor. Otherwise, one of them will face McCarthy in the runoff.

Send an e-mail to russ@russstew art.com or visit his Web site at www.russstewart.com.