December 28, 2016
McAULIFFE'S SOLID WIN IS HUGE MADIGAN FAILURE
Winners are winners until they lose. Over the years, many descriptive adjectives attached to IL House Speaker Mike Madigan: Powerful, dictatorial, arrogant, driven. Now, after 2016, there's a new one: Loser. "It was a catastrophe" for Madigan, said State Rep. Mike McAuliffe (R-20), who withstood $2 million of Madigan money and manpower to win re-election by 5,663 votes, carrying 60 of the 20th District's 84 precincts. Madigan's 71-47 supermajority dwindled to 67-51. The Madigan/Marwig campaign against McAuliffe was replete with lies, disinformation and scurrilous fabrications, like TV ads lumping McAuliffe and Trump together as "extremists." But McAuliffe fought back with $2.5 million, mostly from sources close to the governor, and tied his opponent to the speaker, who has become politically toxic. $100 million was spent on legislative races in 2016. Madigan's Springfield power and luster has dimmed. Full Article...
December 21, 2016
"BATTLE OF BILLIONAIRES" LOOMS IN 2018 ILLINOIS GOVERNOR'S RACE
Illinois' 2018 governor's contest is all about money, messaging and/or Madigan(s). Gov. Rauner's (R) formula is DemR&R&R-LMad+$2,000,000+1,200,000MIA/RVs=W, which means a Democratic candidate who is a relic, retread or rookie, or combination thereof, plus an expenditure of $2 million, plus 1.2 million 2016 Democratic voter no-shows equals WIN. The Democratic formula is J.B.+$4,500,000+blackLG+noMMad+anti-Trump wave=W, which means J.B. Pritzker is the nominee, spends $4.5 million of his own fortune, Mike Madigan retires as speaker, and there is an anti-Trump, pro-Democratic wave; that equals WIN. It will be a Battle of the Billionaires, even if Chris Kennedy is the Dem nominee. Rauner won 1,823,627-1,681,343 in 2014, and Clinton 3,083,643-2,140,595 in 2016. Unless the Democratic voter base plunges in 2018, as it did in 2014 from 2012, Rauner loses. But being tied to the speaker is every Democrat's nightmare. Full Article...
December 14, 2016
IN DEFEAT, CLINTON STILL SHATTERS PROVERBIAL "GLASS CEILING"
Hillary Clinton broke the proverbial "glass ceiling," but not in the way she intended. Americans in 2016 proved conclusively that they can and will elect a woman as president -- but that woman was not to be Clinton. Gender was not a voting factor, as the number of women officeholders actually regressed. There are fewer female governors and U.S. House members than before Nov. 8. But there will be a steady stream of women running for president in 2020, and every election beyond. Elizabeth Warren, Kirsten Gillibrand, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Amy Klobuchar are possibles against Trump in 2020. It is said women, at least in politics, aren't ambitious enough, don't start young enough, and aren't rich enough. That may be true, since you can't win the prize if you don't play the game. Full Article...
December 7, 2016
KIRK IS ILLINOIS' WORST-BEATEN SENATOR SINCE 1948, AND WORST-BEATEN IN NATION IN 2016
Mark Kirk, the hapless Illinois senator who lost his 2016 re-election by 758,264 votes, will be long remembered, albeit ignominiously: He was the worst-beaten senator in the 2016 cycle, and he is the worst-beaten senator in Illinois since 1948. As depicted in the ATTACHED CHART, Curly Brooks lost by 434,728, Ralph Tyler Smith by 545,336 and Paul Douglas by 422,302; but it is remarkable for an incumbent to get under 40%. Kirk had $12.7 million, but two insurmountable problems:: (1) His 2012 stroke, which affected his mental acuity and judgment, and voters' perception of his ability to do his job. And (2) Clinton's headwinds. as she carried IL by 859,319 votes. In MO, KY, PA, WI and IN, Republican senate candidates were boosted by Trump's tailwinds. Not in Illinois, where Kirk ran just 31,920 votes ahead of Trump, and got the support of less than 10,000 Clinton voters. It will be a long, long time before IL elects another Republican senator. Full Article...
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