October 26, 2016
POLLS OFTENTIMES FAIL TO DETECT POLITICAL TRENDS
Polls oftentimes fail to detect political trends. Polls are merely a momentary snapshot. An example is June's "Brexit" referendum, a vote to get Great Britain out of the European Union. The establishment unanimously opposed it, termed it a "disaster," and polls had it losing by 55-45%. But it won 52-48%. So 7 percent of the poll respondents lied. The Clinton-Trump race could have the same dynamic. In 2016 contests for state and federal office, overload and overkill is the operative word. Repetitious negativism is everybody's strategy, whatever the cost.. The gubernatorial races in NC and IN may be a 2018 harbinger for Gov. Bruce Rauner and his "Shake Up Springfield" mantra. Outsiders -- in both cases Democrats -- are running against Republican legislatures. Full Article...
October 19, 2016
BEWARE OF TAX-HIKING POLITICIANS WHO MOAN OF "TOUGH" CHOICES
Beware of politicians who moan about having to make "tough" decisions, for that invariably means they just raised taxes/fees, and now confront a "tough" re-election campaign. For everybody else, "tough" means "that's just tough (for you) and you're going to have to pay more." Chicago, in the past 2 years, has raised property (twice), utility, phone, water and garbage taxes and fees. More is yet to come, in order to bail out underfunded pension funds. Why not get really "tough," as Mayor Emanuel once promised? Tax the suburbanites -- the wealthy, as Democrats always threaten to do. A head tax, professional services tax, user tax, or transaction tax would raise reams of revenue. But there would be pushback from special interests. Cut the budget, which has ballooned from $5.3 billion to $8.3 billion since 2012? Not a chance. City pensions are underfunded by $21 billion, and the CPS by $12 billion. In 2018 and 2019, voters can make an "easy" decision: Get rid of everybody who made a "tough" decision. Full Article...
October 12, 2016
ANOTHER DOLD-SCHNEIDER RACE PROMPTS 10TH DIST. VOTER FATIGUE
How about "none of the above"? In politics, if a candidate repeats a lie incessantly, it oftentimes morphs into the "truth." That's the strategy of Brad Schneider and the Democrats in the 10th Dist. congressional race: Lie about incumbent Bob Dold (R). They're accusing "Bob Dold and the Republicans" of being against abortion rights and gun control, of being in the pocket of "Big Oil" and "Big Money," and of being anti-gay rights. As regarding Dold, all of the foregoing are total fabrications and lies. Schneider beat Dold in 2012 by 3,326 votes in the North Shore district, but lost in 2014 by 4,615 votes. Dold has repudiated Trump, so Schneider can't accuse him of being a "Trump Republican." As for "Big Money," Schneider spent $4.7 million in 2012, over $3 million in 2014, and has raised $2.8 million thus far in 2016. Schneider is a lump, uncharismatic and docile. The 10th is a +8 Democratic district, but Schneider can win only if he demonizes Dold. Voters have heard -- and are weary of -- Schneider's lies and Dold's whining. Neither choice is satisfactory, but Dold is slightly less so. Trump will lose the 10th hugely, but Dold may squeak through. Full Article...
October 5, 2016
DUCKWORTH FAILS TO "PUT AWAY" KIRK IN IL U.S. SENATE RACE
Illinois' Kirk-Duckworth U.S. Senate is characterized by candidate stagnation, voter indifference, and strategists' consternation. A March poll had Duckworth up 43-39%; 6 months later. two Sept. Polls had her up 41-39% and 41-36%. The trendline for both candidates is flat, and neither are connecting with nor exciting the electorate. 20% are undecided, an unusually large number. Both candidates are credible but boring. If Clinton wins IL with 45-48%, Duckworth wins with a plurality of about 250-300,000 votes. Kirk needs 10-12% of Clinton voters to opt for him, but he will lose if Trump doesn't exceed 40%. In 6 IL House contests, a massive infusion of Rauner money is off-setting a massive infusion of Madigan/union money. Republicans will win at least 3 of those 6, cancelling Madigan's super-majority. Full Article...
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