August 31, 2016
WASHINGTON REPUBLICANS AFFLICTED WITH "SEPARATION ANXIETY"
Donald Trump and, to a lesser extent, Bernie Sanders, have destabilized U.S. politics. Sander's socialism and wealth redistribution philosophy has pulled Democrats to the left, while Trump's anti-establishment rhetoric has alienated a lot of culturally and fiscally conservative Republicans. The problem for Washington Republicans, who are protecting majorities in the U.S. Senate and House, is determining how far they dare separate themselves from Trump, if at all. This is an acute dilemma for Republicans seeking election in 2016 in states and districts with a sizeable Democratic base. They will need 10-15% of the Clinton-Kaine voters to win. But by ignoring, disendorsing, or not endorsing Trump, they risk alienating the Trump Nation, which is anti-status quo and not reflexively Republican. Illinois' Mark Kirk is DOA, and Republican senators in OH, PA, NH, IA, AZ, WI and NC are at risk. Only in FL and MO is separation not a necessity.Full Article...
August 24, 2016
TRUMP'S HOPE IS THAT "IT AIN'T OVER UNTIL IT'S OVER"
"It ain't over until it's over." So, famously, said Yogi Berra, that master of malapropisms. Trump is down roughly 48-41% in recent polling compilations. The good news is that he's not under 40%; the better news, just barely, is that Clinton is not over 50%. Trump has, in political jargon, "room to grow." That's probably wishful thinking. Already 90% of the electorate has made up their minds. It's the "10 percenters" who will decide the outcome -- usually in the final 14 days before the election. It's called a "crystallizing moment." Polls were wrong in 1936 and 1948. The 1960 debates elected Kennedy. Reagan surged late in 1980, when voters decided Carter was a flop. "10 percenters" broke heavily for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Trump can still win, but he needs a superlative debate performance plus some game-changing "October surprise." A presidential result CHART is ATTACHED. Full Article...
August 17, 2016
ILLINOIS DEMOCRATS' DEEP "BENCH" INSURES MONEY, CANDIDATES
The difference between the parties in Illinois is that Republicans rely on deep pockets, while Democrats rely on a deep bench. Republicans quest for white males, like Bruce Rauner, who can self-fund up to $75 million. Democrats nurture and groom demographically-desirable candidates like Tammy Duckworth, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Susana Mendoza, test them in campaigns, make sure they win when they are seasoned, and tap into their demographic voter and/or donor base. "Fit the demographic" is the Democrats' mantra. Mike Madigan created the Schaumburg-area 8th congressional dist. to fit Duckworth, a woman and wounded Iraq War veteran; now she's moving to the U.S. Senate. Her replacement will be Krishnamoorthi, and Asian Indian in a district with a large Asian population. A Hispanic woman is running for Comptroller, and 3 black women for major Cook Co. office. Republicans are predisposed to nominate white males. For Democrats, "political correctness" equals political victory, and an ever-expending donor base. Full Article...
August 10, 2016
ILLINOIS COMPTROLLER'S NEW PRIORITY: "WHO GETS STIFFED?"
A good clerk is hard to find, but Speaker Mike Madigan (D) had no difficulty. Clerks are useful: They push the paper -- and checks -- which lubricate government. The Illinois Comptroller's job is that of a glorified bookkeeper: It's clerkish duties are to issue checks to routinely pay the state's bills and employees...and now, to decide which bills not to pay. "Who gets stiffed?" State expenditures exceed revenues by $7 billion, and there is $8 billion owed vendors for past services -- a total of $15 billion. That's a lot of stiffees. Chicago city clerk Susana Mendoza (D) is Madigan's 2016 candidate; Leslie Munger (R) is Rauner's appointee. It will be a Madigan-Rauner proxy war, with plenty of finger-pointing and blame. Obama won Illinois in 2012 by 945,040 votes; if Clinton wins by more than 500,000, Munger is toast. Will Rauner spend $10 million to elect Munger? Maybe. Full Article...
August 3, 2016
"CRISIS" VS. "CONTINUITY" WILL DICTATE PRESIDENTIALOUTCOME
The presidential race can be succinctly analyzed thusly: Trump wins if voters perceive a "crisis"; Clinton wins if voters want "continuity" -- an Obama third term, and the status quo. Clinton wants more compromising, investing (a euphemism for taxes and spending), reckoning, liberating and equalizing. She promises "real change for America." Haven't we heard that before? "Stronger Together" is her mantra, and Trump is a "bigot." Trump is no less superficial. "Make America Great Again" is his mantra. Why are we ungreat? And when were we "great"? He promises to fix it, do it, change it. Historically, the party of an incumbent president not seeking re-election loses the succession more often than not. That occurred in 2008, 2000, 1968, 1960, 1952, 1920, 1896, 1884, 1860 and 1848. The exceptions were 1988, 1928, 1880, 1876 and 1836. 2016 is looking more and more like an exception. Full Article...
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