March 26, 2014
JOE BERRIOS IS PRIMARY'S “BIGGEST LOSER”; RAUNER UNDERPERFORMS
These are five types of losers: Actual, collateral, contingent, peripheral and psychological. On March 18, the Berrios Can hit the jackpot – all FIVE categories. Most embarrassing for Big Daddy Joe Berrios was his daughter Toni's loss of the 39th District IL House seat by a whopping 5,293-3,460 (60.3%) to Will Guzzardi; a collateral loser was Mike Madigan, who spent over $100,000 on her. Bruce Rauner (R) was a psychological loser; he won the Republican primary by just 23,019 votes (40%), after spending $14 million – or about $43-per-vote. Dick Mell kept his credibility by nominating his ex-aide for daughter Deb's House seat. But the day's “Biggest Loser was Joe Berrios. Full Article...
March 19, 2014
ARENA EMERGING AS EARLY 2015 FAVORITE
Those who succeed and persevere in politics are those who master the art of addition - who grow their base. A cogent example is Chicago 45th Ward Alderman John Arena, who won by 30 votes in 2011, and that was only because SEIU and other unions spent $300,000 on mailers and cable TV ads demonizing John Garrido as a “Bush Republican.” Arena, a self-styled “progressive independent, “ has been a consistent foe and critic of Mayor Rahm Emanuel – a popular stance. He marches to the unions' agenda: No charter schools, no vouchers, no closures, no budget cuts, no pension givebacks. Garrido, a Chicago police lieutenant, is back for a second crack. “Arena is a bully,” he said, and “ineffective.” Michelle Baert is running as the “45th Ward Mom, “ her premise being that the ward needs less testosterone, and a woman as alderman. But she voted Republican in primaries in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 – but voted Democratic in 2012 and 2014 - giving the unions an attack angle. Is Baert the pro-Emanuel candidate? Arena wins if he frames the race as pro- versus anti-Emanuel. Garrido wins if he focuses the race on Arena's incompetence and lack of economic development success. Early edge to Arena: he has grown his base. (NOTE: CORRECTION AS TO BAERT'S VOTING HISTORY) Full Article...
March 12, 2014
INCUMBENTS CRAFT WINNING THEME: "I'M NOT RELATED TO ANYBODY WHO IS SOMEBODY"
Bruce Rauner's subernatorial bid is on the cusp between a campaign and a crusade. You remember Barak Obama in 2008? The joy and enthusiasm he engendered, the contempt for the Bush Administration. A vote for Obama was a statement. Illinois voters are similarly infused with contempt for the greedy rascals in Springfield, and a vote for Rauner and his “shake up” theme is a ready remedy. Rauner will win the Republican nomination with 45%. In local legislative contests, the unions are battling such machine titans as Mike Madigan and Joe Berrios. The inoculative phrase is: “I'm not related to anybody who is somebody.” Insiders will feel the sting on March 18. Toni Berrios is in real danger. Full Article...
March 12, 2014
"BIG DADDY" BERRIOS, MADIGAN BATTLE UNIONS, LIBERALS IN 39TH DISTRICT
State Representative Tom Berrios (D-39) doesn't have a name-identification problem. She has a “Big Daddy” identification problem-namely: her father, county assessor and county Democratic chairman Joe Berrios. She faces Will Guzzardi, who parrots the unions' anti-charter, anti-voucher, anti-school closure, “tax the rich” fixation. CTU and SEIU are pumping money into pro-Guzzardi independent expenditures, even though Berrios opposed Madigan's pension reform. Guzzardi has run a smart campaign, and the Berrios Machine a negative campaign, repeatedly invoking images of sexual predators. A Guzzardi loss would be a stunner. Full Article...
March 5, 2014
"PAWN SHOP MENTALITY DRIVES GOVERNORS' RACE"
What is the correlation between pawn shop merchandise and Illinois' candidates for governor? How about used, abused, flawed, tarnished, unsaleable and/or worthless? Pat Quinn ranks as one of America's worst governors. But he is already salivating over the Republicans' field of opponents. There are five factors among Republicans -- social conservative, collar county, Springfield/business, Downstate, and oddball. Latest polls show "Shakeup Springfield" Bruce Rauner way ahead, getting 35-40 percent; with Dan Rutherford's imploding, There is no stop-Rauner contender. Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard can't match Rauner's $8 million-plus. The unions are trying to soften-up Rauner early. The battlelines are formed: Quinn wins if he can demonize and make Rauner unelectable; Rauner wins if he can make it a referendum on Quinn's incompetence. Full Article...
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