February 5, 2013
TYPICAL "CRAPSHOOT" IN 2014 MWRD DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
by RUSS STEWART
A month into 2014, definite political trends are developing.
First, in the Illinois governor's race, MOTS, buts and the "Teflon Man" hold center stage. After spending $3.5 million on prime-time television ads, wealthy businessman Bruce Rauner surged to the front of the Republican pack, but then Rauner, who earned $53 million in 2012 and who manages a $50 million-plus family charity which donated to a magnet school after his daughter was admitted, emerged as a plutocrat par excellence.
Rauner said he wanted to cut Illinois' minimum wage from $8.25 per hour to the federally mandated $7.25 per hour, then said he didn't say it, then recanted and said he might raise it. Never mind that a minimum wage worker grosses $330 per week, or $17,160 annually, which is .00032 percent of Rauner's income.
Then, in a shrewd tactical move, Rauner hunkered down, shifting his ads to 8-year term limits, knowing that Republican primary voters, who are socially and economically conservative and who don't earn the minimum wage, have a "bunker" mentality, believing that when a Republican is attacked and ridiculed by the news media, he must be doing something right. Like Ronald Reagan, he's emerging as the "Teflon Man." Voters are forgetful. Rauner's plan is to ride out the storm and maintain his ubiquitous television presence through March.
Now, amazingly, instead of a meltdown, Rauner is on the brink of a rebound. He faces three credible foes in the March 18 Republican primary, the most formidable being state Treasurer Dan Rutherford; trailing the pack are state senators Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard.
Rutherford held a curious press conference this week denying the unspoken allegations of a male employee, accusing his lawyer of trying to extort $300,000 in "hush money," and stating that Rauner is orchestrating the smear. Rutherford refused to disclose the nature of the insinuations, but a federal Equal Employment Opportunity Commission harassment filing and a federal court First Amendment complaint are in the offing. When a politician begins a press conference with "I didn't do it," and refuses to say what he didn't do, it reminds me of what Leonardo DiCaprio's character said in the movie "Titanic": "This is not good."
Rutherford is trying to preempt what surely will surface before the primary, using a "dirty tricks" defense to undermine the credibility of the accuser by tying him to Rauner, who once used the services of the accuser's attorney. Republican voters are generally tolerant of stupid utterances, but not of personal indiscretions. Newt Gingrich never recovered from the hypocrisy of having an affair while berating and trying to impeach Bill Clinton for his dalliance with Monica Lewinsky, and Jack Ryan handed Illinois' Senate seat to Barack Obama in 2004 after it was revealed that his actress wife charged in a divorce custody filing that he took her to sex clubs where he wanted to have sex with her in public.
If there is a Rutherford meltdown, who benefits? Republicans want a winner. They want to beat Governor Pat Quinn. Every time Quinn opens his mouth, it's MOTS -- More Of The Same. Illinois' unemployment rate is 8.7 percent, well above the national rate of 7 percent and worse than in Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana. While other Republican governors cut taxes and spending in order to stimulate their state's economies, Quinn increased taxes on businesses and "the wealthy," increased spending and borrowing, and wants to increase the minimum wage to $10 per hour. Quinn doesn't govern, he panders, to gays by backing same-sex marriage, to Hispanics by backing driver's licenses for illegals, to minorities by backing a minimum wage hike and resisting Medicaid reforms, and to public sector unions by first opposing, then supporting, pension reforms, but now fudging.
That's Quinn's recipe for the next 4 years -- MOTS. If a Republican were president, Quinn would boisterously blame his failures on Washington. I have known Quinn since the early 1970s, when he was a field organizer for Dan Walker. I can attest to this: Quinn's mentality, and whole being, is all about the game: gaining power and keeping power. Using power is an afterthought. Quinn will say and do whatever is necessary to keep power. He has no ideological compass or fervently held beliefs.
If Quinn wins in 2014, it will be another 4 years of drift and liberal posturing. Quinn will keep running for governor until he loses, either in a primary or an election. He will not meekly step aside for Lisa Madigan in 2018.
The jury is still out on Rauner: Is he a Dudley Do-Right or a Dorky Dimwit? He will spend $25 million of his money. Brady and Dillard are losers, both having blown opportunities in 2010. Rutherford, who was elected statewide in 2010, was viewed as credible alternative. If he crashes and burns, Rauner will win the nomination.
That will set up a Quinn-Rauner face-off featuring the opportunistic populist versus the elitist plutocrat. The outcome will be determined by perceptions. Rauner will posit the contest as a referendum on Quinn, lambasting him as an incompetent, spineless, tax-hiking liberal. Quinn will not run on his record, but will go negative on Rauner, ripping him as a rich white guy who is hostile to gays, minorities, unions and women.
It will be MOTS versus not-MOTS. Quinn won in 2010 by a minuscule 31,834 votes over the hapless Brady, who had no message and no money. Rauner's television ads proclaim that he will "shake up Springfield." The theme will be GROQ -- Get Rid Of Quinn. It will happen.
Second, there is a growing fissure among Illinois and Chicago Democrats, between those who govern and those who complain and grasp.
Remember the phrase "voodoo economics"? That's what Walter Mondale and 1980s liberals tabbed Reagan's trickle-down economic policy. Reagan sought to cut taxes on the rich and encourage them to invest, create jobs, and generate more tax revenue. It worked, but the deficit ballooned. The non-voodoo crowd's philosophy was to tax the rich and redistribute it to the poor.
Rauner wants to "shake up" Springfield. How about this: Democratic Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan has craftily embraced "voodoo economics." A Democrat who wants to cut the state income tax on businesses? Is this a dream?
Madigan has introduced a bill to slash the corporate income tax from 7 percent to 3.5 percent, saving businesses about $1.5 billion annually and reducing by half the $2.9 billion in revenue the tax generates yearly. The speaker said the cut would create more jobs. That's trickle-down Reaganomics.
It's also what is called a "fetcher" bill. In the old days, a legislator would introduce a bill which would gore some special interest and would immediately "fetch" a big campaign donation from that special interest, making the bill disappear. Madigan's brainchild might pass the House, would likely die in the Senate, and surely would be vetoed by Quinn, but it serves Madigan's purpose: It will "fetch" a lot of corporate money and keep him in power, where he can lay the groundwork for his daughter Lisa Madigan's 2018 bid for governor.
Mayor Rahm Emanuel is maneuvering to distance himself from the public sector unions, who are coalescing to fight the "pension heist." That includes the teachers, police, firefighters and government workers. Police and firefighter pensions are funded at 30.5 percent and 25 percent, respectively, and Chicago must make a $600 million contribution to those pensions in 2015. That's almost 8 percent of the city's $7.8 billion budget, which means either huge cuts in existing services or significant new taxes.
Remember the term "fall guy"? That's the hapless sucker who takes the rap for somebody else's transgressions, problems or mistakes. Emanuel is setting up the unions to be his 2015 "fall guy." Capping cost of living adjustments or making retirees pay part of their health insurance premiums will not close the gap, but the unions' fierce opposition to any pension tampering will make them blameworthy and give Emanuel a plausible target to assuage voter wrath.
On economic issues, the Democratic party is splitting between the governing, business-friendly, Clintonite wing and the "progressive," soak-the-rich, redistribute-the-wealth Obama wing.
Third, the president's dismal poll numbers portend a 2014 Republican rebound, particularly in the so-called "red" states. Nationwide, Obama's "unfavorables" exceed 50 percent, and they are inching toward or have exceeded 60 percent in Arkansas, Alaska, North Carolina, Montana, West Virginia and Louisiana, states where Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats are at grave risk. Seats in Michigan, New Hampshire and Iowa also could flip in an anti-Obama tide.
"Underwater" poll numbers for Bill Clinton in 1994 and George Bush in 2006 led to major party losses. The Democrats' 54-46 Senate majority will crumble, and the Republicans will gain seats in the U.S. House.
Fourth, the Tea Party will not be a factor in 2014. Their 2010 outrage is now just smoldering irritation. "Obamacare" has been neither a success nor a failure, just a muddle; the economy has improved in the past four years, but problems persist; Congress is monumentally unpopular, but there is no throw-the-bums-out surge.
The fall election will be a "nationalized," as opposed to "localized." Running against Obama will pay dividends and unite Republicans.
Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.