October 2, 2013
TOUGH PRIMARIES AWAIT BERRIOS, REYES, ANDRADE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

by RUSS STEWART

It's inoculation time. The 2014-15 political season has begun.

The best defense against forthcoming insults to intelligence and noxious negativity is the following: Don't answer the doorbell. Don't read newspapers. Don't watch television. Get garbage bags for the avalanche of junk mail. Definitely don't read this column.

Nominating petitions for the March 18 primary are due by Dec. 2. Some odorous contests are already under way.

40th Illinois House District. Recently appointed Jaime Andrade will soon discover whether, in the "Land of Me, Mell and I," loyalty begets reciprocity. The "Wizard of Mell," former alderman Dick Mell, obsesses about preserving the royal bloodline, having installed his daughter Deb Mell and his son-in-law Rod Blagojevich in office, and he shows no compunction about dealing, dumping or trampling to advance his kin. Mell expects his staffers and precinct minions to bust a gut to elect them.

Now Andrade, a Democrat who worked as an aide to Mell for 17 years, expects Mell to bust a gut for him. He faces opposition from attorney Nancy Schiavone, the 35th Ward Democratic committeeman, and Aaron Goldstein, who was the lead counsel in Blagojevich's second trial. Only 21 of the district's 68 precincts are in Mell's 33rd Ward, and unless Mell masterminds and bankrolls the effort and puts the arm on his fellow committeemen, Andrade will not win.

Geographic and ethnic positioning is critical. Schiavone and Goldstein both hail from Logan Square, which has a growing, upscale population. Andrade is from Irving Park, to the north. The district is roughly half Hispanic, but they are only about a third of the voters. The district extends from Lawrence Avenue to just south of Logan Boulevard, between California Avenue and Kostner Avenue. Outlook: Toss-up.

39th Illinois House District. The mantra is forewarned is forearmed. After squeezing out a 124-vote victory over Will Guzzardi in the 2012 primary, incumbent Democrat Toni Berrios, the daughter of Democratic county chairman and Assessor Joe Berrios, presumably is better prepared.

However, one cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's ear. Berrios has been a state representative since 2002, in a district with a large Hispanic population and where precinct workers in the 30th, 31st, and 35th wards are cogs in the Berrios machine. Yet Guzzardi, then a 24-year-old Internet journalist and a recent transplant from North Carolina, vastly outworked the complacent Berrios clan. He said that he spent 6 to 8 hours a day knocking on 13,000 doors, and he raised more than $100,000. Guzzardi got 3,896 votes, in a turnout of 7,917.

The district extends from Western Avenue to Austin Avenue, between Irving Park Road and Fullerton Avenue west of Pulaski Road and between Diversey Avenue and Armitage Avenue east of Pulaski. It contains 82 precincts in seven wards. Guzzardi won 37 precincts and ran especially well in the western portion of the district, carrying the 38th, 45th and 35th wards by a total of 505 votes. It was Toni Berrios' 578-vote win in her father's 31st Ward that saved her.

The incumbent's excuse for her close call was that the district had changed in the remap and that she wasn't well known in the new areas. That is not entirely true. Berrios lost 16 precincts, including eight in the 35th Ward, but gained five in the 31st Ward and seven in the 38th and 45th wards.

Now the self-proclaimed "Energizer Bunny" is back, slogging through the precincts, with an organization in place and plenty of enthusiastic workers. The question is not whether Guzzardi will win, it's whether Berrios can win. What has she done in the last 18 months to offset what she didn't do in the previous decade? Outlook: Guzzardi favored.

47th Ward: Despite being top-heavy with the clout-heavy, nobody is inclined to do any heavy lifting. Centering on Ravenswood and Northcenter, the ward has more clout per square inch than Bridgeport and the 11th Ward did in their heyday. Residents include Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Blagojevich, three members of the Hynes clan (Matt, Tom and Dan), CTA boss Forrest Claypool, City Clerk Susana Mendoza, former city comptroller John Chambers and county Commissioner Bridget Gainer.

That should make the job of Peter Coffey, the ward's Democratic committeeman, a piece of cake. It hasn't, and Coffey, who was Emanuel's choice for the post in 2012, is quitting. Nobody who is anybody wants to replace him.

"There's been no direction, no recruiting, no activities, no election judges," said one former precinct captain, who remembers the days of Ed Kelly's "Fighting 47th Ward" operation. There also is "no sense of urgency," he adds, saying that the ward is so heavily Democratic, so upscale and so liberal that precinct captains are an anachronism. Barack Obama got 78.7 percent of the vote in the ward in 2012, and Emanuel got 66.8 percent in 2011.

Gene Schulter, who had served as the ward's alderman since 1975, precipitated a wadwide earthquake in 2011. Schulter filed for re-election and then withdrew, having passed and filed the petitions of precinct captain Tom O'Donnell on the last day. Voters were enraged, and they rejected O'Donnell and elected Ameya Pawar, a total unknown, by a vote of 8,572-7,347. Expect Jack Lydon to get the post.

8th County Board District: The "slate accompli" is a fait accompli. Joe Berrios and his allies, Aldermen Ray Suarez, Ariel Reboyros and Roberto Maldonado and state Representative Luis Arroyo, are busy people. Why waste time convening a slatemaking session?

That makes appointed county Commissioner Edwin Reyes uneasy. Is he slated or dumped? "They don't talk to me," Reyes said. "They don't return my calls. They haven't invited me" to slating. Yet, he adds, they're passing the petitions of Luis Arroyo Jr. for Reyes' job, and Arroyo had a fund-raiser in September.

I asked Manuel Galvan, Berrios' press spokesman if Arroyo is slated or not. "I don't know, but he is probably running for something," Galvan said.

The Reyes-Arroyo contest epitomizes the geographic, ideological and political chasm among Hispanic politicians. Most North Side Hispanic politicians are of Puerto Rican heritage, but pockets of Mexican Americans exist around Ashland Avenue and Division Street and around Belmont and Central avenues. The "Barrios Bunch" is in politics purely for the power, while the backers of Reyes, including Iris Martinez, Miguel del Valle, Willie Delgado and Cynthia Soto, proclaim themselves to be "progressive independents," and they focus on Hispanic empowerment. Reyes is endorsed by Toni Preckwinkle. The "Berrios Bunch" is the more conservative.

A subtext is the "Son Swap" described in an August column. The 2011 remap created a new, Hispanic-majority 36th Ward, west of Central between Belmont and North Avenue, effective in 2015. Initially the elder Arroyo staked claim to the seat, but then Willie Aquino Sr., a buddy of Suarez, who represents the 31st Ward, where Joe Berrios is the committeeman, decided he wanted his son, Willie Aquino Jr., to get the 36th Ward anointment, so to pacify Arroyo Sr., the "Berrios Bunch" decided to give Arroyo Jr. the county board seat.

"This is beyond outrageous," Reyes fumed. "It's intolerable. They don't care about my record or experience. All they care about is taking care of themselves, their pals, and their pals' kids." Outlook: In a low turnout, Arroyo favored.

45th Ward: For almost two generations, since the ward was created in 1961, residents have been subjected to a paternalistic, autocratic political environment in which the Democratic bosses -- Tom Lyons and then Pat Levar -- ran the show. Now they're getting a dose of maternalism. Michelle Baert, the "45th Ward Mom" has emerged, ready to nurse, nurture and change everybody's diapers. T.L.C. is what she thinks voters want.

According to Rudy Pamintuan, Baert's husband and press spokesman, the "45th Ward Mom," as she is hyped by her Web site and pamphlets, is "doing fantastic," attending events throughout the ward and "building a coalition of women and moderates who want a fresh face and community-based leadership."

The 2015 aldermanic race will feature 2011 combatants John Arena and John Garrido; Arena won the runoff by 30 votes. Baert's strategy is "all about positioning," Pamintuan said, arguing that Arena, the ward Democratic committeeman, is "too liberal" and from the south end of the ward (Portage Park), while Garrido, a police lieutenant, is "too conservative," a Republican and from the north end of the ward (Gladstone Park). "They are both polarizing, and their supporters detest each other," he said.

Which means, simply, that if Baert gets into a runoff, she wins. If it's Baert-Garrido, the Arena voters will back her, and vice versa if it's Baert-Arena. Each have a hard-core base of 30 to 35 percent of the vote, acknowledged Pamintuan, who said Arena is "not well known, especially north of Montrose" and that Garrido's past Republican affiliation is an impediment. "She's the only non-politician in the race," he said.

Wait a minute. I asked "Mr. 45th Ward Mom" if Arena and Garrido have a committed 60 to 70 percent of the vote between them, doesn't Baert need to get almost 100 percent of the remaining 30 to 40 percent? "It can be done," he replied.

The word is that the mayor is not enthralled with Arena, part of the City Council's miniscule anti-Emanuel bloc, whose "independence" is popular in the ward. The mayor won't back or fund a loser, so Baert has a year to do her "Mom" thing, build name identification, and move poll numbers. If she's mired at 15 to 20 percent, Emanuel's money will be diverted elsewhere.

Send e-mail to russ@russstewart. com or visit his Web site at www. russstewart.com.