June 12, 2013
EMANUEL AT MID-TERM: MORE LIKE DALEY THAN BYRNE OR BILANDIC

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

According to well placed Chicago Democratic sources, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle is not averse to running for mayor in 2015, but she won't be a kamikaze.

In other words, she will run against Rahm Emanuel if she believes she can win. She will not run because certain enemies of Emanuel, such as the Chicago Teachers Union and the Fraternal Order of Police, want to punish the mayor and need a stalking horse to vent their anger.

So here's the question: Is Emanuel beatable? He got 55.8 percent of the vote to win his first term in 2011.

Which begets further questions: Is Rahm a Dick or a Jane? A Rich or a Mike? A tranquilizer or a polarizer? A keeper or a goner?

At mid-term, Emanuel must be judged by his accomplishments and compared to his predecessors. Is he a one-term stumblebum like Jane and Mike -- mayors Jane Byrne (1979 to 1983) and Mike Bilandic (1976 to 1979) -- or is he a long-termer like Dick and Rich -- Dick Daley (1955 to 1976) and Rich Daley (1989 to 2011)? Emanuel has professed that he doesn't intend to be mayor for life. That was the aspiration of every one of his predecessors. There is no job more desirable and powerful in Illinois . . . certainly not the governorship, where he would have to do daily battle with Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan.

So, at age 53, does Emanuel want to maintain his frenetic pace for two more terms? That's another 10 years. If good buddy Hillary Clinton doesn't run for president in 2016, Emanuel might. He has nothing to lose, and he would only elevate his national and local stature. In a field of second-tier candidates, Emanuel could perform well, and he certainly could win the Florida primary, with its huge Jewish vote. He could raise mega-bucks from Hollywood and Jewish contributors, but he would have zero appeal in farm states and the South. Is America ready for another Chicagoan, one who is indelibly tied to Barack Obama, as president? If Clinton does run, Emanuel could be her pick for vice president, but Clinton's path to the White House in 2016 means distancing herself from Obama, and a Clinton-Emanuel ticket would not accomplish that objective.

So Emanuel's future is an enigma. This much is clear: Emanuel is not loath to make tough decisions. He has antagonized significant portions of the Chicago Democratic base, namely, public sector unions, teachers and police. He has been an in-your-face, take-charge, media-manipulating, controversy-precipitating mayor.

Playing it safe, which was the hallmark of the Rich Daley regime, is nowhere to be found. By being tough on crime, supporting charter schools, defying the unions' contractual work rules, chopping the city budget, palming off city employees to "Obamacare," redoing the parking meter deal to allegedly save $1 billion over the next 71 years, Emanuel has established himself as a sage and gutsy mayor, employing a combination of "Bloombergism" and Clintonite triangulation.

Opposition derives from many sources:

Partisanship. In the North Shore 10th U.S. House District, for example, there are hard-core Republican and Democratic votes of about 40 percent each. Thus, elections are fought for the "undecided" center, the 20 percent who are "moderates." Not so in Chicago. John McCain got 13.7 percent of the Chicago vote in 2008, and Mitt Romney got 14.6 percent in 2012. Emanuel need only concern himself with solidifying 55 to 60 percent of the Democratic base, as he did in 2011.

Ideology. How liberal is Chicago? The city's population is roughly 38 percent white, 33 percent black and 29 percent Hispanic. Back in the 1980s, during the heyday of Harold Washington, white residents on the Northwest and Southwest Sides were implacably anti-Washington while liberal Lakefronters loved the guy.

That's ancient history. The most recent emblematic contest was the 2004 U.S. Senate Democratic primary, which Obama won with 52.8 percent of the vote statewide, 64.4 percent in Cook County and 66.5 percent in Chicago. In a turnout of 452,855, 199,219 votes came from black-majority wards, and Obama got 195,669 of those votes. His opponent was state comptroller Dan Hynes, who was backed by the usually powerful 19th Ward Democrats and their ethnic allies. Obama won 44 of 50 wards in Chicago, including the Northwest Side 41st, 40th, 39th, 47th and 50th wards, got 301,199 votes citywide to 70,015 for Hynes, and swept the Lakefront.

In short, being a liberal is no impediment to victory, which is why Emanuel can support gay marriage and gun control with impunity. Liberals comprise about 63 percent of Democratic voters in Chicago and about 24 percent of all voters.

Just for the record, is there a conservative base in Chicago? Again, the 2004 Senate primary is illustrative. In the Republican field, Jim Oberweis, the in-your-face, pro-gun rights, anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, anti-immigration firebrand, faced seven opponents. He got 6,011 votes in Chicago, and the Republican primary turnout was 20,180, so the conservative base is about 30 percent of Republican voters and 0.4 percent of all voters.

There are enough nonliberals so that Emanuel, like Daley, can be fiscally conservative, pare the budget, defy the unions, and suffer no consequences.

Incompetence, stupidity and scandals. Chicago was known as "The City That Works," but when the city's murder rate increases, the Police Department and mayor take the blame. There were 510 murders in 2012, up 18 percent over 2011 after falling steadily for 20 years, the bulk of which were gang-related shootings. Police superintendent Gerry McCarthy's response was to flood high-crime areas with officers, and murders were back down 33 percent during the first five months of the year -- and police overtime was up by more than $10 million. Emanuel has to keep it down.

Under Daley, the "Hired Truck" scandal, coupled with the jobs-for-precinct-work revelations of the Hispanic Democratic Organization, got no traction. So what? Chicagoans expect such chicanery in government. As long as the mayor is not venal or personally corrupt, Chicagoans are exuberantly tolerant, and underlings' conduct can be excused as par for the course.

Under Emanuel, the "Happiness Quotient" has remained positive. Under that theory, voters are affected by five issues: environment, safety, schools, economic vibrancy and pride. (1) Is the neighborhood livable? Are services provided? In Chicago, government is seen as an ally, not an enemy. Emanuel's new grid garbage collection saves money, and the 311 phone setup directs people to the right agency to solve problems. (2) Is the neighborhood safe? A police presence is mandatory, but many outlying wards fear the transfer of their cops to high-crime areas. (3) Education is a paramount concern, and the upgrade of Chicago's schools, begun under Daley, has not foundered under Emanuel. As always, it's a matter of the ins versus the outs. Emanuel has championed charter schools, and by not buckling to the Chicago Teachers Union in 2012, fomenting a strike, Emanuel demonstrated a cunning toughness. The strike was short, the concessions were minimal, and the mayor emerged as the perceived "reformer." (4) Unemployment is 9.4 percent. Vast swaths of Chicago are economically eviscerated, as manufacturing businesses and jobs flee to the suburbs or out of state, but a "Starbucks" recovery pervades most white-majority wards. That means a multitude of bars, restaurants and service enterprises. The city's tax revenues have not plunged. (5) Then there is pride. Are people embarrassed to be a Chicagoan? The answer is no.

On the "Happiness Quotient," the dour Emanuel has passed muster.

Race. Back in the 1980s, race mattered in Chicago. Blacks were apoplectic about losing the mayoralty, and whites thought the job was only temporarily lost.

Of Chicago's 1,364,371 registered voters, 606,771 (44.4 percent) reside in the city's 20 black-majority wards. That should provide an instantaneous base for Preckwinkle, as it did for Washington, but for one caveat: Obama. In 2015 he will still be president, and he will endorse his former chief of staff for re-election. Against desultory black opposition in 2011, Emanuel got a majority of the black vote. Without 95 percent of the black vote, Preckwinkle cannot win.

Geography: Bridgeport used to be the cradle of Chicago's mayors. There was a possessory mentality. That's gone. Emanuel lives in Ravenswood, in the 47th Ward. So what? The old South Side versus North Side rivalry is passe.

Articulation: You can't beat somebody with nobody. There is no prominent or consistent Emanuel critic. There is nobody who is attempting to build or lead an anti-Emanuel coalition. Preckwinkle, who has chopped almost $800 million from the county budget, must get herself renominated in March of 2014 and re-elected in November of that year. To beat Emanuel, she must start now, but to announce now would undercut her re-election. To announce after she's re-elected would be foolhardy, as she'd have only 4 months to organize. Preckwinkle will not run.

Lastly, there's turnout. A mayor who engenders polarization and volatility is a mayor who spurs turnout.

Turnout was 810,000 in 1979; it exploded to 1.2 million in 1983, to 1.1 million in 1987 and to 900,000 in 1989. It's declined since, to 463,000 in 2003 and to 456,000 in 2007, then spiking to 590,000 in 2011.

Emanuel got 326,331 votes in 2011, nearly identical to Daley's 324,519 in 2007. As long as turnout, stays under 625,000, Emanuel is unbeatable.