April 25, 2012
"RECOVERY RATE" DRIVES 2012 U.S. HOUSE RACES IN ILLINOIS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The putative success of President Barack Obama's second term -- or Mitt Romney's first term -- is predicated on an arcane and obscure measurement concocted by Washington political insiders called the "recovery and retention rate," or "R&RR."

It's sort of like NFL statistics focusing on takeaways, fumble recoveries, points allowed and points scored. If the Republicans retain their U.S. House majority and recover the Senate in November, "Obamacare" will be repealed. However, if the Democrats retain the Senate and recover the House, big government gets bigger.

The "R&RR" works like this: In any 2-year election cycle, one party is more or less dominant. They each assault enemy territory and capture an indeterminate number of House and Senate seats. Then, 2 years (or sometimes 4 years) later in House races or 6 years later in Senate races, the "R&RR" emerges: The defeated party must recover takeaways, the winning party must retain turnovers, and an "R&RR" is calculated. If it's on either side of 50/50 recovery/retention, there's a winner.

Certain factors govern each cycle's outcome: (1) Open seats, when the incumbent retires, putting in play a previously "safe" sinecure. (2) Scandals affecting the incumbent, creating a turnover opportunity. (3) "Flawed" nominees as challengers or in open seats, with a candidate too extreme or unrepresentative of the district or state to win. (4) "Wave" elections, when voter sentiment against the White House occupant redounds to the opposition party's benefit, producing sizable to huge turnovers. (5) Remap excisions, occurring every decade, when the dominant party's legislature obliterates the other party's incumbents.

In 1960, when John Kennedy assumed the presidency, the Democrats had majorities of 65-35 in the Senate and 264-173 in the House. In 2008, when Obama went to the White House, the Democrats had majorities of 59-41 and 257-178, respectively. 2008 was back to 1960. Now, after the 2010 Republican blowout, it's 53-47 Democrats and 239-196 Republicans. In the interim, despite eight "wave" elections, the ebb and flow of national politics has shown minimal change. Here's a synopsis:

In 1964, when President Lyndon Johnson cruised to a landslide over Republican Barry Goldwater, the Democrats gained 37 House seats, upping their majority to 295-140. In 1966, in a repudiation of LBJ's liberalism and Vietnam policies, the Republicans gained 47 seats, defeating 22 of 37 freshmen Democrats. That's an "R&RR" of 59.5 percent recovery/40.5 percent retention. The Democrats' majority was down to 248-187 -- less than in 1960.

In 1974, when anti-Watergate and anti-Nixon sentiment crested, the Republicans lost five Senate seats and 48 House seats, for a 291-144 Democratic majority -- back to 1964 levels. In the 1976 and 1978 elections, the Republicans netted 14 seats and recovered a minuscule 10 of those 48 1974 losses, while in 1980, factoring in retirements and races for state office, 28 of those 1974 winners were still in office, with a 277-158 Democratic majority. That's an "R&RR" of 41.7/58.3.

In 1980, with Jimmy Carter having botched the economy and foreign policy, Ronald Reagan's landslide swept the Republicans into control of the Senate (by 53-46-1) for the first time since 1954, a gain of 12 seats. In the House, the Republicans gained 34 seats, cutting the Democratic majority to 243-192 and restoring them exactly to their 1972-73 minority. Nineteen of the 48 Democrats from the class of 1974 were defeated in 1980, and only 26 remained in Congress, but "Reaganomics" hadn't succeeded by 1982 (it would by 1984), and the Republicans lost 26 House seats, with 20 of the 34 1980 victors ousted, but gained one Senate seat, leaving Democratic majorities of 269-166 and 54-46. That's an "R&RR" of 41/59.

In 1986, when Reagan fatigue was building, seven of the 12 Republican Senate seats won in 1980 were recovered by the Democrats -- a stunning "R&RR" of 58 percent. The Senate was 55-45 Democratic and the House was 258-177 Democratic -- back to 1970's breakout.

In 1994, for the first election since 1952, the Republicans, in an anti-Clinton "wave," won a congressional majority: 52-48 in the Senate and 230-205 in the House, with a nine-seat gain in the Senate and a 54-seat gain in the House. Relative to the class of '94, the Democrats recovered nine House seats in 1996, a rate of 16.6 percent.

However, in the 2000 Bush-Gore presidential election, the Democrats gained five U.S. Senate seats. After the election it was 50-50 in the Senate and the Republicans had a 222-213 margin in the House, nearly identical to the difference in the 1953-54 Congress, when it was 48-48 and 221-214.

In 2006, with glow of the Iraq "victory" fading and the economy sputtering, an anti-Bush wave developed. Going into the election 232-202 and 55-45 Republicans, the Democrats flipped 31 House seats plus three more in special 2008 elections and gained six Senate seats, giving them 51-49 and 236-199 majorities. Of the 33 senators elected in 2006, the breakout is 24-9 Democrats, and Democrats who ousted Republicans in 2006 in Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Michigan and a retiree in Virginia face difficult reelection contests in November.

In 2008 another anti-Bush wave, with the banking industry meltdown and Obama atop the Democratic ticket, spurred a huge turnout. In House races, the Democrats captured another 25 Republican-held seats and the Republicans captured five Democratic seats, including four recoveries. The Democrats gained six Senate seats, giving them 59-41 and 257-178 majorities -- enough to pass Obama's 2009-10 agenda. Democratic Senate takeaway winners in New Hampshire, Oregon, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico will face tough reelection fights in 2014, especially if Obama is then president, as will senators in Louisiana and South Dakota.

In 2010, buoyed by an anti-Obama wave, the Republicans flipped 65 Democratic-held House seats, amassing an astounding "R&RR" of 69 percent and recovering 40 of the 58 Democratic takeaways of 2006 and 2008 (including four 2008 recoveries of 2006 losses) and bringing Congress to 53-47 Democrats and 239-196 Republicans. That brought the Republicans back close to their 1994 breakout of majorities of 52-48 and 230-205.

In fact, it would not be surprising if the Republicans replicate their 1994 showing this fall and end up with majorities of 52-48 in the Senate and 230-205 in the House. The Republicans will recover at least three of the Senate seats they lost in 2006.

Six months away from the 2012 election, the Democrats are struggling to win a net of 24 House seats, and they must defend 24 of 33 Senate seats. However, the road to a Democratic House majority runs through Illinois. The Illinois delegation, 11-8 Republicans after 2010, with a one-seat loss due to population adjustments, was designed by Springfield Democratic remappers to be 12-6 Democrats -- a five-seat Republican loss.

Illinois has always been a closely balanced congressional delegation, with Chicago Democrats offset by suburban and Downstate Republicans. It was 14-11 Democrats in 1960, 12-12 in 1962, 13-11 Democrats in 1964, 12-12 in 1966 and 12-12 in 1974, but by 1980 it was 14-10 Republicans. Attrition during the 1980s, including Dick Durbin's 1982 win of a Springfield-area seat, brought it to 12-8 Democrats by 1994. In 2002, with another seat lost, the Republicans rebounded to 10-9.

However, Democrat Melissa Bean won complacent Phil Crane's McHenry County 8th District seat in 2004, Democrat Bill Foster won former House speaker Denny Hastert's vacant Downstate/exurban 14th District seat in a 2008 special election, and Democrat Debbie Halvorson won Jerry Weller's open Will County seat in 2008 to make it 12-7 Democrats.

The 2010 election was a Republican blowout: Joe Walsh beat Bean by 290 votes, Randy Hultgren beat Foster by 13,724 votes, Adam Kinzinger beat Halvorson by 33,089 votes, and in the Rock Island-western Illinois 17th District, restaurant owner Bobby Schilling beat incumbent Democrat Phil Hare by 19,129 votes to make the delegation 11-8 Republicans. Republican Bob Dold kept Mark Kirk's seat by 4,651 votes.

Here's the outlook for November:

10th District (North Shore and east Lake County): The last Democrat to win the district was Abner Mikva in 1978. The Republicans won narrowly in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Remappers removed much of Palatine Township, erasing Dold's 2010 margin. He faces Brad Schneider, an unimpressive candidate. Outlook: Democrat favored.

8th District (Schaumburg area, northeast DuPage County): Remappers packed the district with Hispanics (20 percent), only a quarter of the district lies in Walsh's old district, Obama got 62 percent of the vote in 2008, and Democrat Tammy Duckworth is deemed a superstar candidate, but Tea Party champion Walsh is an indefatigable campaigner. Outlook: Toss-up.

11th District (south suburban/Joliet): Republican Judy Biggert's Hinsdale home was stuck onto a Northwest Side Chicago district, and all the Hispanic areas of Foster's old 14th District were added, but Biggert has been in Congress since 1998 and is a moderate on social issues, and the new district contains half of her old district versus a quarter of Foster's former district. Foster is trying a comeback. Outlook: Toss-up.

17th District (western Illinois): Remappers stuck in every Democratic bastion available, including Rockford, Decatur, Peoria, Rock Island, Quincy, in an effort to oust Schilling. Nominee Cheri Bustos, an East Moline alderman, is well funded but not well known. Outlook: Likely Democrat.

12th District (East Saint Louis and adjacent rural counties): Largely unchanged, Obama won the district with 56 percent of the vote in 2008, and incumbent Democrat Jerry Costello is retiring. Obama won't win it in November. It's school superintendent Brad Harriman for the Democrats versus 2010 losing lieutenant governor candidate Jason Plummer, who can self-fund. Outlook: Toss-up.

My prediction: It will be 10-8 Democrats after November.