November 23, 2011
MIAs AND MOVE.ON.ORG AID DOLD IN 10TH DISTRICT CONGRESSIONAL RACE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The upscale North Shore 10th U.S. House District has always been perversely contrarian and counter-cyclical.

The district's voters elect Republicans in big Democratic years (2006, 2008), barely elect Democrats in huge Democratic years (1974), and barely elect Republicans in big Republican years (2010). They have a demonstrable affinity for socially liberal/fiscally conservative Republicans over liberal Democrats, and when there is a popular Republican congressman, like John Porter (1979 to 2000) or Mark Kirk (2001 to 2010), a flock of formidable Democrats spend millions of dollars for the privilege of losing.

But when there is a weak, beatable Republican incumbent, such as U.S. Representative Bob Dold, who won his first term in 2010 by 4,651 votes (with 51.1 percent of the total cast), the Democrats' 10th District "A-Team" is missing in action.

Among the MIAs are Julie Hamos, Lauren Beth Gash, Karen May, Elaine Nekritz and Susan Garrett, all liberal women and current or former state legislators, each of whom would have been a formidable foe for Dold. None will run in 2012. That leaves the Democrats' field to the uninspiring "B-Team," or, as they are becoming known, the "Mossad Lite," an allusion to the Israeli intelligence service, versus the "MoveOn Kid," who promises to be a "bold progressive leader" and an advocate the Occupy Wall Street agenda.

"Dold has not established himself," one North Shore Republican said. "He's not Mark Kirk. He's not well known. He has few party contacts, and the district was made even more Democratic . . . Dold has real problems."

The fundamental problem is that Dold is undefined. Kirk, Illinois' junior senator, defeated Gash by just 5,658 votes (getting 51.2 percent of the vote) in a tempestuous 2000 open race, and he defined and entrenched himself as a social moderate (pro-choice, pro-gun control, pro-gay rights) and a fiscal conservative. He also established himself as a firm "Friend of Israel." Kirk backed a strong U.S. presence in the Middle East, the sale of sophisticated weaponry to Israel, and U.S. military actions in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even so, he was barely reelected in the anti-Bush Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008.

Dold had $995,000 in campaign funds as of Sept. 30. Since 2009 he has raised $4.2 million, but he's barely made a dent in the North Shore's consciousness.

To Dold's prospective rescue, however, comes the "B-Team," consisting of political neophytes Brad Schneider, Ilya Sheyman and John Tree. "Nobody knows any of them," observed one Democratic office holder. "They're going to collectively spend one million dollars to get known. Instead, we should have united behind one strong candidate and spent that money to rip Dold's anti-Obama, pro-Tea Party voting record."

"Dold better pray that Sheyman is the nominee," the Republican politician said. "He's unelectable."

Schneider and Tree are jockeying to be the "Best and Better Friend of Israel" for the March 20 primary. The district's substantial Jewish population, centered in Buffalo Grove, Deerfield and Lincolnshire, is roughly a third of the primary vote. Yet Sheyman is tacking to a different course: more infrastructure spending, no funding for wars, protection of all government programs and no surrender to the Tea Party. He's appealing to hard-core liberals, who make up half the primary vote.

Schneider, age 49, a Deerfield management consultant, had $417,000 in campaign funds as of Sept. 30. He is on the board of the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful Jewish lobbying force in Washington. Schneider's theme is that Dold is too extreme and that he is a puppet of the Republicans' Tea Party agenda. His pledge to be a conciliatory, bipartisan, business-friendly congressman draws yawns.

Schneider was enticed into the race by Allyson Schwartz, a Pennsylvania congresswoman and a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recruiter. He also has been endorsed by House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer. "If he was any blander, he'd just fade away," the Democratic politician said. "He generates zero excitement.

Sheyman, age 25, of Waukegan, the son of Russian Jewish immigrants, is a professional organizer who was the "mobilization director" for the left-wing MoveOn, and he led that group's advocacy of national health care, which resulted in Obama's Patient Protection and Affordable Health Care Act. "The kid's everywhere," the Democratic politician said. "He's really working hard."

Scheyman is employing the "bogeyman" approach: stop Dold and the "evil" Republicans from dismantling social security, Medicare and the Obama health care plan. He is endorsed by MoveOn founder Howard Dean, U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. and Democracy for America.

"Occupy the 10th District" is his underlying theme. "I'm committed to the middle class, not the power structure," Sheyman's Web site proclaims.

Tree, of Long Grove, a businessman and a reserve U.S. Air Force pilot, served a stint as an advisor to the Israeli Air Force. His wife is Jewish, and his roots in the district are tenuous. His Web site attacks the "Dold extremists" in Congress who "put party first."

Thus far, the party's organizational base is unenthusiastically coalescing around Schneider, while "progressive" Democratic activists -- the type who think that Obama is insufficiently liberal -- are increasingly enthralled by Sheyman. Barack Obama won the 10th District in 2008 by 181,071-114,035 over John McCain, winning by a margin of 67,036 votes and getting 61.4 percent of the vote in a turnout of 295,106. Democrat John Kerry won the district 150,267-134,536 over George Bush in 2004, winning by a margin of 15,731 votes and getting 52.8 percent of the vote in a turnout of 284,803. Those 30,000-plus "change we need" Obama Democrats are 2012 anti-Dold voters, if they turn out.

The new 10th District is markedly less Republican, slightly less liberal and much more habitually Democratic. The remap sliced off Palatine, Arlington Heights and most of Wheeling, areas where Kirk and Dold ran up sizable margins, and added Mundelein, Round Lake and Zion. Wilmette, Kenilworth, Winnetka and half of Glenview, affluent areas with a Republican base of 40 to 45 percent, were appended onto Jan Schakowsky's 9th U.S. House District, which is centered on Evanston. The new district voted almost 65 percent for Obama in 2008.

In 2008 Kirk ran 39,767 votes ahead of McCain and Seals ran 42,895 votes behind Obama, meaning that 23 percent of voters opted for Obama and Kirk. Obama will not be as popular in 2012 as he was in 2008, but Dold lacks Kirk's stature. In both 2006 and 2008, Seals and the Democrats tried to "nationalize" the congressional race, making it a referendum on Bush, the Iraq war and the economy. They failed. Voters made it a referendum on Kirk, whom they differentiated from Bush, and Kirk won by 13,651 votes in 2006 and by 14,906 votes in 2008. Dold will not have that luxury. Presuming that Obama gets 60 percent of the vote in the district, Dold must get one in six of those Obama backers in order to win.

In analyzing the upcoming Democratic primary, these factors must be considered:

First, gender doesn't matter. In 2010 it was gender vs. familiarity. Hamos, who is Jewish, appealed to female voters and Jewish households and tried to tap into fatigue with Seals as a loser. Seals, who is part African American, stressed his prior races and his entitlement to a third shot. Seals topped Hamos by 959 votes, losing Cook County by 412 votes but winning Lake County by 1,371 votes. Next year, without a woman in the race, gender will be irrelevant.

Second, geography matters. The Lake County portion of the district, which includes Lake Forest, Lake Bluff, Highland Park, Libertyville, Deerfield, Grayslake, Lincolnshire and part of Buffalo Grove, cast 41.3 percent of the vote in the 2010 primary. In the new district, Lake County has more than 55 percent of the population, and it will cast half the Democratic primary vote, which aids Schneider.

Third, ideology does matter. Motivation is critical. Turnout in the 2004 congressional primary was 34,488. It surged to 93,877 in 2008 due to the Obama's candidacy in the presidential primary. Next year it will recede to 50,000. Who turns out?

There are two wedge issues: Obama and Israel. Sheyman will scorn Schneider for wanting to work with the Republicans. Schneider will blister Sheyman for wanting to eliminate funding for the two wars, which protect Israel.

The outlook: Tree will take votes from Schneider. Sheyman is running a down-and-dirty, screw-those-nasty-Republicans campaign. Schneider is running a dainty, high-road, beat-Dold campaign.

My prediction: Sheyman anticipates 350 volunteers and 10,000 donors. His novelty factor gives him 40 percent of the vote. The primary is Schneider's to lose. Posturing as a genial, placating nice guy is wise strategy against Dold, but not against Sheyman. Being a "Friend of Israel" has no appeal to the legion of anti-war, pro-Obama liberals enraged about Tea Party Republicans. Expect a Sheyman upset.

Election outlook: Can Dold win? It requires a salable Republican candidate like Mitt Romney for president, who will get 40 percent of the vote in the district, Sheyman as his foe, and $1 million to demonize Sheyman as an enemy of Israel. If Dold gets half the Jewish vote, he wins.