November 9, 2011
"NEXT DALEY" EMERGES ONTO MAYORAL TRACK

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Chicagoans thoroughly understand and appreciate the concept of "personhood," the latest skirmish in the battle over abortion. Opponents of abortion rights are putting referenda on various state ballots to mandate that a human being -- or person -- exists at the moment the sperm inseminates the egg.

That's old hat in the Windy City and the Cook County suburbs. The analogous concept of "officehood" has long been prevalent. What emanates from the loins of the mighty has long been the swiftest avenue to political power. DNA matters. Future politicians are created at the moment of conception, or shortly thereafter.

The latest manifestation of this phenomenon is Patrick Daley Thompson, a Bridgeport lawyer and one of three slated 2012 Democratic candidates for the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District. He is the son of the daughter of the late Mayor Richard J. Daley and the nephew of former mayor Richard M. Daley, his mother's brother.

Fortunately for Thompson, his mother providentially inserted her surname as his middle name. He's not Patrick David Thompson. You read it here first: Thompson, age 42, a real estate and zoning attorney since 1999, is on a fast track to be Chicago's mayor.

But wait. Isn't Rahm Emanuel going to be mayor for life? His popularity is stratospheric, his power is undisputed, and his ego is unrestrained. Compared to Emanuel's energetic comportment as mayor, Rich Daley was a bundle of lassitude. That, however, is typical. Emanuel, who sniffed the heady power of the White House as chief of staff, is initially enjoying his job and exercising his clout, but how long will he operate at a 24/7 level and tolerate just being mayor?

Why not Illinois governor in 2014? Or president in 2016 or 2020? The point is this: For Emanuel, the mayoralty is a steppingstone to higher office, not a career culmination. For the "Daley Clan," being mayor is the end-all and the be-all. This is "their" city. From 1955 to 2011, a period of 56 years, a Daley was mayor for 43 years.

According to Democratic sources, the grooming of Thompson is based on a simple reality check. The offspring of "Daley Generation II" are all in their 60s and politically exhausted: Rich Daley was mayor for 22 years; Bill Daley, the White House chief of staff, made millions as an investment banker and eschewed bids for mayor, governor and senator; John Daley, the 11th Ward Democratic committeeman, a county commissioner and the chairman of the Cook County Board's powerful Finance Committee, will rise no further. As for "Generation III," Rich Daley's son Patrick has distinguished himself in the military and has not yet immersed himself in Chicago politics.

Other "Daley Clan" nephews, like Richard Vanecko, have been accused of using their family clout for personal gain and are not politically viable. Vanecko, in fact, was the subject of an investigation by the Cook County State's Attorney's office into the death of David Koschman in 2004.

So that leaves Thompson as the successor-in-waiting. His ascension is a four-step process: validation, then promotion, followed by introduction and finally coronation. Getting elected as a water district commissioner, an obscure post, is his validation. The media will pounce on any character flaws, but the March 20 primary is essentially a beauty contest. In a field of unknowns, voters will be swayed by name, gender, ethnicity, media endorsements and Democratic organization backing.

Slated along with incumbent Debra Shore and South Sider Kari Steele, the daughter of a former alderman and current Appellate Court justice, the word has descended from Bridgeport and "Daleyville" to committeemen: Get on board now. Deliver a sizable vote for Thompson, because if you don't, we will remember, and if "Daley III" makes it to City Hall, you will be sorry. For 2012, watch the money. The former mayor's campaign account still has $962,129, and John Daley has $51,210 in his account. Thompson will raise and spend $1 million and pour an obscene amount of dollars into the coffers of Democratic ward and township organizations. Their sample ballots and primary day palm cards will highlight Thompson, and nobody else, in the water district race.

The filing deadline for county races is Dec. 5, and the water district primary will include Barbara Moore, the wife of 49th Ward Alderman Joe Moore, and others. Shore, of Evanston, who is gay, will get substantial support from the North Shore and Lakefront as well as media endorsements. Steele will be on the "black ticket" in the primary. Moore will run as an environmentalist.

Thompson will not run first countywide. To win, however, he needs to run first or a close second in Chicago's white-majority wards and the suburbs. This much is clear: If a vote for Thompson is a vote for "Daley III," a lot of people -- blacks, liberals, Hispanics, Emanuel supporters -- will not vote for him in the primary. Stealth and obfuscation are the key.

The next phase is promotion. The water district is not a source of great visibility. The outgoing district president, Terry O'Brien, ran an abysmal race for county board president in 2010, when as the only white candidate in a field of four, he got an anemic 23 percent of the vote, and Toni Preckwinkle won the primary. But the Daleyites intend to quickly advance Thompson to 11th Ward alderman.

The current Bridgeport alderman, James Balcer, age 61, has served since 1997, basically at the sufferance of John Daley. He reportedly was eager to retire in 2011. Presuming that Thompson wins the primary, he would have the credentials and credibility to be appointed alderman if Balcer were to resign or to run to succeed him in 2015.

Once in the City Council, the next phase is introduction. Thompson cannot be a cipher like Balcer, unseen and unheard. He would need to emerge quickly as a player, either as an advocate of specific issues, a budget economist or a critic of Emanuel. He would need to identify himself with a cause, such as TIF district reform or school choice, and earn credibility as a thoughtful alderman.

Then there is the coronation. As was obvious in the lead-up to 2011, there were a plethora of mayoral aspirants, but few had the intestinal fortitude and financing to run. Thompson, guided by John Daley, won't have those shortcomings when the time is right.

To date, no alderman has surfaced as an Emanuel critic. The mayor deftly positions himself as a cut-the-fat fiscal conservative. His 2012 budget is $6.3 billion, and his technique is to slash severely, engender an outcry from those slashed, then "compromise" by slashing slightly less.

The public remembers the grousing and applauds the mayor, while those slashed are ever so grateful that he relented somewhat and also applaud the mayor. For Emanuel, it's a win-win situation.

Emanuel, age 52, has plenty of future competitors in his late 40s/early 50s peer group. There are Sheriff Tom Dart, former state comptroller Dan Hynes, county Commissioner John Fritchey, City Clerk Susanna Mendoza and Alderman Ric Munoz (22nd), provided Munoz wins the 2012 primary for clerk of the Circuit Court. Among black hopefuls, U.S. Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. and his wife, Alderman Sandi Jackson (7th), loom large, but they have baggage. Aldermen Leslie Hairston (5th) and Will Burns (4th) will be future black leaders, as might Roderick Sawyer, the son of the late mayor who was elected alderman in 2011, but only Dart, Hynes and the Jacksons have access to major money.

The goal of the "Daley Clan" is to keep Emanuel around long enough to burnish Thompson's credentials, which means at least through 2019, but not so long that the luster of the Daley name will fade or that John Daley will no longer be a powerful county commissioner.

Rumors abound that Emanuel will run for Illinois governor in 2014, when the feeble incumbent, Pat Quinn, surely will retire. That would put him on a trajectory for a White House bid in 2016 or 2020, but it also would put him on a collision course with Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, the 13th Ward Democratic committeeman, who will run his daughter, Attorney General Lisa Madigan, for the job.

As Quinn slowly self-destructs and the state fiscally implodes, Emanuel's leadership qualities shine, but taking on Lisa Madigan in a gubernatorial primary is a daunting and risky proposition. Emanuel raised $14.5 million for his mayoral run, and he could raise $10 million for a statewide race, but so, too, could Madigan. The race would be brutal, with the speaker whipping up anti-Chicago sentiment Downstate and Emanuel relying on black, Hispanic and suburban voters.

If Emanuel lost, his credibility would be shattered, with proof positive that he is using the mayoralty as a steppingstone.

If Emanuel won the primary and then beat the Republican candidate, the City Council would pick a caretaker mayor to serve for the final months of the term and the 2015 mayoral election would be a zoo.

If the "Daley Clan" want to retake City Hall, they must get Thompson in place quickly. That means the water district in 2012, an aldermanic appointment by Emanuel in 2013, and Emanuel's elevation to the governorship in 2014.