September 28, 2011
INCONSISTENCIES GALORE AMONG CONGRESSIONAL VOTES
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
If oddities and inconsistencies were virtues, then a big chunk of Illinois' congressional delegation would be on a fast track to the proverbial pearly gates.
An analysis of the 2010-11 voting records of seven U.S. representatives (see adjoining vote chart) discloses a remarkable propensity for contradiction and permutation. There are those who are pro-Obama/anti-war, pro-Obama/pro-war, anti-Obama/pro-war or anti-Obama/anti-war.
For example, liberal U.S. Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-9) of Evanston backed deployment and funding of U.S. troops in Libya and Pakistan but not Afghanistan and voted to slash defense weapons spending. U.S. Representative Joe Walsh (R-8), a libertarian from North Barrington, voted for new aircraft funding but for less overall defense spending and for no troops in Libya.
U.S. Representative Mike Quigley (D-5), a Chicago Lakefront liberal, voted against sending U.S. troops to Libya but then opposed removing them but was for pulling them out of Pakistan and Afghanistan and for slicing defense procurement funding. Even U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4) is inconsistent: He wants no U.S. troops anywhere and no aircraft funding, but he opposes cuts in Navy and Air Force appropriations.
On domestic issues, Schakowsky, a confidante of U.S. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, a cheerleader for President Barack Obama and a vitriolic critic of George Bush and all things Republican, regularly launches tirades against "tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires." But Schakowsky voted to extend the Bush-era tax cuts, and she voted with the Republicans in opposing raising the U.S. deficit ceiling to $14.69 trillion -- because she thought it should be higher. She supported raising it to $16.7 trillion, but she opposed raising it to $15.2 trillion while cutting $400 billion and requiring a balanced budget. She also opposed limiting discretionary spending to $1.22 trillion in a $3.6 trillion budget. Schakowsky and Gutierrez opposed extension of the Patriot Act to 2015, while Quigley backed the extension.
Even the four Republicans in the chart -- Walsh and U.S. Representatives Peter Roskam (R-6), Bob Dold (R-10) and Judy Biggert (R-13) -- evidenced minimal unanimity or consistency. All four voted to bar federal funding for abortions, but Dold and Biggert opposed eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood's birth control programs. In 2010 Biggert and Roskam opposed ending the moratorium on offshore drilling after the BP spill, but in 2011 all four Republicans backed a bill to compel leasing for oil and gas drilling.
On the seminal social issue of school choice, a bill which would allow publicly paid school vouchers to parents who enroll their children in Washington, D.C., private schools, Roskam and Walsh were in favor and Dold and Biggert were in opposition, along with Schakowsky, Quigley and Gutierrez.
On repealing the Obama health-care plan and eliminating funding for National Public Radio, which conservatives deem a liberal mouthpiece, all four Republicans were predictably in opposition, and in 2010 Roskam and Biggert opposed the DREAM Act, which would allow children of illegal aliens to get college aid, and backed a bill to allow guns to be exempted from bankruptcy forfeiture.
Interestingly, Walsh joined Schakowsky in opposition to the both the Obama/Republicans' Budget Control Act and the Republicans' debt hike/budget cut plan. Walsh wanted deeper cuts, and Schakowsky wanted no cuts.
The Republicans hold an 11-8 majority in Illinois' 19-member U.S. House delegation. The state is losing one seat due to population decline, and the Democratic-controlled Illinois General Assembly enacted a remap which adversely affects a slew of incumbents, including some Democrats, most notably Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-2). In an effort preserve Chicago black incumbents Jackson and Bobby Rush (D-1), the Democrats' remap pushed Jackson's Hyde Park district all the way south to Kankakee, including the area around the proposed Peotone airport, which Jackson supports, plus Crete and Beecher in eastern Will County. Rush's South Loop district now extends all the way southwest to the middle class white suburbs of New Lenox, Mokena and Frankfort in Will County.
Both districts have a black population of around 55 percent, which guarantees a Democratic congressman, but a clever and ambitious white contender could win. In Jackson's district, former U.S. Representative Debbie Halvorson of Crete is the incumbent's worst nightmare. Well known from 12 years in the Illinois Senate and one term (2009-10) in Congress, Halvorson is vociferously opposed to the Peotone plan. Halvorson's slavish backing of the Obama-Pelosi agenda resulted in a 33,089-vote thrashing by Republican Adam Kinzinger in 2010, but a Democratic primary in the new district is a different situation. Jackson has made a lot of enemies, and a number of Chicago black politicians will view a Jackson-Halvorson primary as a golden opportunity to wreak their revenge. Ditto for the Emanuel Administration: If it can assist in beating Jackson in 2012, he won't be a potential mayoral contender in 2015 or beyond.
Jackson's wife, Sandi, is the 7th Ward alderman, and she won with just 53 percent of the vote in 2011. The congressman's indelible Chicago connection, headlines generated during the Blagojevich trial about his interest in Obama's Senate seat and his alleged marital infidelity do not endear him to white suburbanites. To win, Jackson needs 90 percent of the black vote and 25 percent of the white vote; if Halvorson gets 25 percent of the black vote and 80 to 85 percent of the white vote, she's back in Washington.
In the 1st District, Rush, who is battling cancer, had only $40,000 in his campaign account. If a credible black candidate opposes Rush in 2012, or if he retires and a number of Chicago black candidates run for the seat, a white suburbanite could win the primary.
The districts of Republican incumbents Dold, in the North Shore suburbs, Bobby Schilling (R-17) in Western Illinois along the Mississippi River and Tim Johnson (R-15) of Champaign-Urbana, were made more Democratic.
Biggert's 13th District was disemboweled, with her Hinsdale home appended onto Quigley's Chicago 5th District and the remainder of the district parceled out between Roskam's Republican 6th District and a new 11th District encompassing Joliet and Aurora and the area's Hispanic-majority enclaves, plus liberal Naperville. The south suburban/rural district of Kinzinger (R-11), encompassing the Will County suburbs and stretching to Bloomington, was cannibalized and parceled out among Jackson, Rush and U.S. Representative Don Manzullo (R-16). Kinzinger likely will run against Manzullo.
The early outlook:
Walsh: Hell hath no fury like the liberal news media piling on a conservative with alleged ethical transgressions. News reports indicate that Walsh has a child support arrearage of roughly $100,000, as evidenced by a rule entered against him in a Cook County court. If true, that demonstrates personal irresponsibility at a time when Walsh is demanding governmental responsibility. That would be crass hypocrisy. Yet remember this: Schakowsky's husband and campaign strategist, Bob Creamer, was convicted of a check-kiting scheme hiding shortfalls of up to $2.6 million. No wrongdoing attached to Schakowsky, who claimed ignorance of his actions, but she blamed the Bush Administration for a political vendetta.
Walsh's belligerent and contentious personality has made him a Tea Party hero. His 8th District, centered on McHenry County, was dismembered, and he will run in the new 14th District, which stretches to Kendall County, against incumbent Republican Randy Hultgren, a more conventional conservative. Walsh is favored -- so far.
Dold: The Republican's new 10th District is much more Democratic, but Dold is trying to emulate the image of his predecessor, Mark Kirk, who ran 39,000 votes ahead of John McCain in 2008. Dold has cast a few non-conservative votes and has raised plenty of money, and he won't face formidable Democratic opposition. He's a slight favorite.
Biggert: First elected in 1998, Biggert is a moderate on social issues but, at age 74 she will have to introduce herself to a slew of new voters in the 11th District, where she will face former Democratic congressman Bill Foster, who lost to Hultgren in 2010.
Democrats Quigley, Schakowsky and Gutierrez are all safe in 2012.