September 7, 2011
PERSISTENCE, CALCULATION SEPERATE CATAGORIES OF LOSERS
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Like the Cubs, Chicago's enduring "loveable losers," those defeated in the political realm are often suffused with a Cub-like "wait until the next election" mentality: Lose today, win tomorrow, they think.
Their patron saint is Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, who is proof positive that if you are persistent, rejection-resistant, ego-hardened, and willing to downsize your ambitions and devote your whole life to campaigning for public office, you'll eventually succeed. Since 1982 Quinn has won five of nine primaries or elections. In 2010, as lieutenant governor, he would not have won a Democratic gubernatorial primary against state Attorney General Lisa Madigan, and as governor, succeeding the impeached Rod Blagojevich, he barely beat Comptroller Dan Hynes. Persistence, along with dollops of good luck and happenstance, pays.
It is often said that there are no "good losers," only losers. This column is devoted to political losers: narrow losers, chronic losers, sore losers, compulsive loser and crusading losers. Here are the various categories:
Crusading losers: This ilk seeks office for a cause, and they posture as the crusading leader. They portray their candidacy, and victory, as facilitating the empowerment of a racial group or an ideological idea. Defeat creates anger, not shame. Their electoral demise is not a personal rejection, but is ascribed to a myriad of sinister conspiratorial forces, such as "racism" or the "liberal news media."
An example of the former is Roland Burris, a black lawyer who was Blagojevich's appointee to Barack Obama's U.S. Senate seat. Since 1976 Burris has won four statewide elections but has lost six statewide and Chicago Democratic primaries, three for governor and one for mayor. In every party race, the plodding Burris has tried to position himself as the "Great Black Hope," but the black base either failed to sufficiently respond or there were too few white candidates to split the vote. Thankfully, after 2 years as senator, Burris retired quietly, and he will never be heard from again.
An example of the latter is Jim Oberweis, the obnoxiously conservative, self-centered, arrogant scion of the dairy chain. This columnist can attest to that litany of characteristics, having appeared on radio shows with Republican Oberweis. His anti-immigrant, anti-abortion, anti-gay rights credo failed to attract enough votes to win primary campaigns for governor in 2002 and 2006, for U.S. senator in 2004, and for election as U.S. representative in a Republican-held district twice in 2008. Oberweis as a candidate should be dead and mummified. Instead, he is planning a comeback as an Illinois Senate candidate. Republicans beware: If Oberweis gets to Springfield, he'll run for governor again in 2014.
I can't afford to be a loser. In Chicago and Cook County, the only sure losers are Republicans and, usually, independent, anti-Machine Democrats. The customary winners are organization-backed Democrats, who must display patience, not persistence: Wait your turn; get slated; get nominated. There is no second chance. If you are slated but not nominated, you're through; if you are nominated but not elected, you're through.
The reigning example is newly elected county assessor Joe Berrios. Berrios was a Board of Review (formerly Board of Tax Appeals) commissioner from 1988 to 2010, he became the county Democratic chairman in 2008, and he maneuvered himself into the powerful assessor's office in 2010, winning a tough primary and the election against independent Forrest Claypool, spending nearly $3 million. Had Berrios lost either contest, he'd be through.
The same is generally true statewide among Democrats. Gubernatorial losers Mike Bakalis (1978), Neil Hartigan (1990) and Glenn Poshard (1998) found no encouragement for a second try. The exception was Adlai Stevenson III, the former senator and dynasty scion who lost for governor in 1982 by 5,074 votes and got a second crack in 1986, losing by 399,223 votes. Democrat Nancy Drew Sheehan lost the state treasurer's race to Republican Judy Baar Topinka in 1994 by 77,018 votes. Had Sheehan won, she would have been the Democrats' candidate for governor in 1998 or 2002, and Blagojevich would still be an obscure congressman. Sheehan got no second chance.
Presumptive winners: In Illinois' statewide elections, every Democrat is presumed to be a winner. Those who lose are sure to be ostracized, as is Alexi Giannoulias, the former state treasurer and Obama's basketball-playing buddy who managed to lose his bid for Obama's Senate seat by 59,220 votes while Quinn was elected by 31,834 votes. Despite heaps of negativity piled on Republican Mark Kirk, Giannoulias still lost. He won't be rewarded in the future, even if he wants to run for state treasurer again.
Calculating losers. The rule of thumb is this: The first time you run, all your friends, relatives and neighbors are enthused, contribute money, and work precincts. After a first defeat, that fervor is diminished, and after a second defeat, it has evaporated. A close first loss invariably entitles a second crack at running, but a second loss for the same office, however tight, does not merit a third crack.
When a candidate is the underdog, either because of a popular incumbent or a politically unfavorable district, a two-cycle campaign is a necessity.
An example: Former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia ran three times in his suburban Atlanta district. The first, in 1974, was to establish name identification, the second, in 1976, was to brutally attack the Democratic incumbent, and the third, in 1978, when the incumbent retired, was to claim the seat. Locally, the same scenario didn't benefit North Shore Democrat Dan Seals, who lost to incumbent Republican Mark Kirk in 2006 by 13,651 votes and in 2008 by 14,906 votes, and, when Kirk ran for senator in 2010, lost to Bob Dold by 4,651 votes. Seals won't get a fourth chance.
When a candidate is the underdog, a two-cycle campaign, presuming a loss in the first attempt, is shrewd. Lacking credibility, money or name recognition, the first campaign is an enormous investment of time and, usually, personal cash; in addition, a political organization has been built, and an army of volunteers and staffers has been assembled. If the first showing is respectable, a second bid is almost obligatory.
An example: In the Northwest Side 45th Ward, police lieutenant John Garrido ran for the Republican nomination for Cook County Board president in the 2010 primary and got a respectable vote. He then downsized to a 2011 aldermanic bid for the seat vacated by Pat Levar, stressed his conservative values, and finished first in the preliminary election. In the runoff against John Arena, various unions poured almost $300,000 into the ward for mailers and cable television ads, blasting Garrido for his "Bush connection" and a myriad of other misdeeds, which now are the subject of a defamation action. Arena topped Garrido by 30 votes.
In 2015 Garrido will run again for alderman, with an organization in place and with volunteers fueled by anger over the "dirty tricks" which allegedly elected Arena.
Another example: Claypool, an 8-year county commissioner who lost the 2006 primary for county board president to John Stroger and the 2010 election to Berrios, has now surfaced as Mayor Rahm Emanuel's Chicago Transit Authority president. Like Quinn, Claypool is a survivor, and he likely will be a 2014 candidate for some statewide or county office. By running for a different office as an independent and not losing twice for the same office, Claypool retains his credibility.
Don't-give-it-up losers. The optimal way to absorb a defeat is to already occupy another office. Rich Daley's loss for mayor in 1983, when he finished third in the initial election, should have been a death knell, but he was elected state's attorney in 1980 and was reelected in 1984 and 1988. When the mayoralty opened in 1989, he was credible enough to run again. Likewise for Emanuel: He could run for governor in 2014 while keeping his mayoral post if he lost. If he won, county board president Toni Preckwinkle or Berrios could run for mayor in 2015 while keeping their job, as could Lisa Madigan.
Chronic losers: Usually, it's two and out among Democrats. Gery Chico lost the 2004 Senate primary and the 2011 mayoral election. He's done. Hynes, having lost to Quinn, is history. But among Republicans, losing has no great tarnish, as there is no stable of lower-office winners.
Losers can't be choosers. The 2014 Republican gubernatorial field is composed of losers. Bill Brady, a state senator who inexplicably lost to Quinn, got 18.4 percent of the vote in the 2006 primary and 20.3 percent in 2010, edging state Senator Kirk Dillard by 193 votes. Republican insiders are convinced that if Dillard had been nominated, he would now be governor, and that Brady was a disaster. Also running for governor in 2014 is state Treasurer Dan Rutherford, who used a 2006 loss for secretary of state to build a base for a 2010 win for treasurer. If Oberweis runs for governor, he will doom Brady, but if the more moderate Dillard and Rutherford run, splitting the non-hard-right conservative vote, either Brady or Oberweis could eke out a 20 percent win.