June 22, 2011
HISPANICS WILL BE STIFFED AGAIN IN 2011 CHICAGO WARD REMAP

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In the realm of Chicago politics, fantasy eclipses reality. Or, more accurately, the federal Voting Rights Act, incessant demands for black and Hispanic "empowerment," and aldermanic self-preservation all combine to defy reality.

In state capitols across America, partisan battles over redrawing congressional and legislative districts to equalize population are fraught with spoking, spiking, bleaching and tinting. The majority party can screw the minority party, as occurred in Illinois, by artful map-making.

But in Chicago, self-preservation and self-interest are paramount. Under city ordinance, 41 aldermen must vote to approve a ward remap, and it must be done by Dec. 1. If 10 or more aldermen don't get a ward in which they can win and vote against the map, it goes on the March 2012 primary ballot as a referendum.

Should any black-majority ward be eliminated, or if two more new Hispanic-majority wards are not drawn, a cacophony of "they're racist" rhetoric surely will erupt. Mayor Rahm Emanuel won't let that happen.

Time is not of the essence. State and federal boundaries must be in place before 2012, but Chicago's 50 aldermen, who were elected this year, don't run again until 2015, and they will represent their current wards for the remainder of their terms. But they revile wholesale alterations, and they don't want to serve constituents who cannot vote for them.

Chicago's population declined by 208,734, from 2,904,332 to 2,695,598, from 2000 to 2010, according to the census. Here are the demographics:

The black population declined by 17 percent, with 181,453 fewer African Americans recorded in 2010 than in 2000. African Americans are 33 percent of the population, down from 36 percent, or about 890,000. There are 19 black aldermen and 20 black-majority wards. Given population loss, there should be only 17 black wards.

From 1990 to 2000, the city's black population declined by about 20,000, suggesting a recent accelerated exodus of blacks to the suburbs and a lower birthrate.

The Hispanic population grew by an anemic 3.3 percent, less than the usual birthrate, with 25,218 more Hispanic residents. Hispanics are 32 percent of the population, up from 29 percent, or about 863,000. There are eight Hispanic aldermen but 13 Hispanic-majority wards. Given population gains, there should be 16 Hispanic-majority wards.

The city's Hispanic population grew by about 210,000. In the 2001 remap, the City Council drew six "super-majority" wards that are over 55 percent Hispanic. White aldermen still represent five of those wards.

The white population declined by 52,499, but whites remain 35 percent of the population, or about 944,000. There are 22 white aldermen and one Asian alderman, and 17 white-majority wards. Despite population loss, there should still be 17 white-majority wards.

From 1990 to 2000, the white population declined by about 150,000. In the past decade, the 18th Ward's white alderman was replaced by a black alderman, and the 2nd Ward's black alderman was replaced by a white alderman. A Hispanic alderman replaced a white alderman in the 30th Ward.

In 2001 each ward was supposed to have 58,100 people, while under the new map each ward is supposed to have 53,900 people. But political reality dictates no fewer black aldermen and only one more Hispanic-majority ward.

According to census data, the seven most populous wards (the 2nd, 13th, 14th, 32nd, 36th, 41st and 42nd wards) have white aldermen, although the South Side 13th and 14th wards have huge Hispanic majorities (72 percent and 88 percent, respectively), and the South Loop 2nd Ward is transitioning from a black majority to a white majority. Each must shed 10,000 to 15,000 residents. The Lakefront/Gold Coast 42nd Ward must lose about 25,000 residents.

On the Northwest Side, the 41st, 36th and 32nd wards are overpopulated and must lose 7,000 to 10,000 residents.

On the South Side, seven black-majority wards (the 3rd, 5th, 8th, 9th, 15th, 16th and 17th wards) are underpopulated, totaling 317,397 in the census, and they must gain 10,000 to 12,000 people each. This will be difficult, since adjacent areas are Hispanic. If those seven wards were collapsed into six, the problem would be eliminated, but none of the aldermen are inclined to step aside.

As black residents continue their exodus, many heretofore black neighborhoods in the 3rd Ward (which contains the Back of the Yards area) and the 20th and 16th wards are filling with Hispanic residents.

The City Council Rules Committee, which will draft the new map, is chaired by Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), who is known disparagingly in the Hispanic community as "Old Gringo" or "Ricardo Molina." Mell's ward is now majority Hispanic. He must appease his constituency, which means drawing at least one new ward that will elect a Hispanic alderman. At present, the "Four Gringos" -- Mell, Ed Burke (14th), Marty Quinn (13th) and John Pope (10th) -- are secure in their Hispanic wards.

Unfortunately for Mell, he has to pacify 40 other aldermen, and he can't spoke, tint, bleach or spike, the usual strategies of state legislators.

Spoking means extending a black district into the white suburbs, diluting the Republican vote and keeping a 55 percent black majority. That works because 95 percent of African Americans habitually vote Democratic. Bleaching means cramming a district with every available white Republican in order to enable a Democrat to win elsewhere. Tinting means spreading around the minority vote to develop a 25 to 35 percent Democratic base in a marginal district and elect a white Democrat. Spiking means connecting noncontiguous minority areas in order to elect a minority Democrat, like the grotesque district of U.S. Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-4).

Chicago's population is too racially segregated for each strategem. There are only Hispanic residents, not whites, to spoke onto a black ward. There are only white residents to spoke onto Hispanic wards. Hispanics will be enraged if they are tinted into black wards. Hence, in the remap battle, it will be the blacks and Hispanics who will furiously attempt to unbleach, tint, spoke and spike each other.

It's called "dump the dregs." Every alderman wants to get rid of unpalatable precincts -- those where there is palpable animosity and opposition or an inconvenient ethnic group, or where future opponents reside. On the Northwest Side, five white-majority wards, the 36th, 38th, 39th, 41st and 45th wards, plus part of the black-majority 29th and 37th wards, will be cannibalized and dismembered to create a Hispanic-majority ward centered on the Belmont-Central area, which currently is in Alderman Tim Cullerton's 38th Ward. The game of "musical chairs" will unfold thusly:

First, the North Side Hispanic-majority wards (1st, 26th, 30th, 31st and 35th) need at least 10,000 more people each, which will be extracted from Mell's 33rd Ward and black Aldermen Emma Mitts' 37th Ward and Deborah Graham's 29th Ward.

Second, for Mell to survive, he will have to absorb at least a quarter of Alderman Marge Laurino's 39th Ward, specifically the Albany Park area, as well as a slice of the 47th Ward.

Third, to compensate, Laurino, whose ward is based in Mayfair and Sauganash, will have to absorb Edgebrook from the 41st Ward and Forest Glen from the 45th Ward.

Fourth, newly elected Alderman Mary O'Connor in the 41st Ward, a victor by just 250 votes in April, must shed 7,000 residents. Some of that will be lost to Laurino. Since her ward is nestled on Chicago's edge and she lives in Edison Park, her ward cannot be spoked or spiked. In all likelihood, she will lose precincts west of Canfield Road, along the Cumberland Avenue corridor, and absorb Gladstone Park (including the residence of 2011 45th Ward aldermanic loser John Garrido).

So that leaves three aldermen -- freshmen Tim Cullerton, John Arena and Nick Sposato -- and two wards. Cullerton, the scion of a political dynasty and the brother of 38th Ward Democratic Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton, will be protected. He is, in effect, the "Last Man Standing." Arena won Pat Levar's old job in the 45th Ward, and Levar, the ward's Democratic committeeman, was humiliated when his choice to replace him failed to make the runoff. Sposato beat 36th Ward Committeeman Bill Banks' hand-picked aldermanic successor.

Were Banks and Levar still in the council, they would protect their turf and Cullerton would be the odd man out. Arena and Sposato are not committeemen, they have negligible clout, and they are expendable. Cullerton and Arena both live in Portage Park, within four blocks of each other. Sposato lives in Montclare, an area with a growing Hispanic population.

 So who gets whacked? Mell can either run Cullerton's ward north/south, east of Nagle Avenue and north of Belmont Avenue, taking in all of Portage Park and Jefferson Park, and pit him against Arena in 2015. Or he can run the ward west like a spaghetti, from Laramie Avenue along Irving Park Road to the Cumberland corridor, and also north to grab the west end of the 41st Ward around Oriole Park and a piece of Galewood around North and Harlem avenues.

As for Sposato, he's up the proverbial creek without a paddle. He'll reside in a new Hispanic-majority ward. However, if Cullerton is mapped to face Arena, Sposato could move northwest and have a chance to keep his job.

"There will be a map by November," Laurino predicted. And plenty of blood, sweat, tears, groans and invective in the interim.