January 26, 2011
"E-TEAM" TOPS "B-TEAM" IN 41ST WARD ALDERMANIC RACE

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

An "A-Team" they're not. In the Northwest Side 41st Ward, the obscure field of 11 candidates is more of the Rodney Dangerfield variety, and the candidates can be variously described as sincere, sweet, tough, inept, plodding, frumpy, angry, egotistical, misguided and uninspiring.

They are striving to replace retiring Alderman Brian Doherty, a Republican, but they get minimal voter attention and no respect.

Call them the "B-Team." Remember this: When an alderman retires, the field of would-be successors is always uninspiring. As the lowest rung on the political ladder, aspirants usually don't occupy other office, usually are making their first run for office, rely on friends and neighbors, raise few dollars, and wage flawed campaigns.

In 1991 18-year alderman Roman Pucinski, who served as a congressman from 1959 to 1972 and who was a 1972 U.S. Senate candidate, faced a "B-Team" of seven opponents. "Pooch" progressively ignored and alienated his constituency. In a turnout of 22,034, Pucinski got 9,181 votes (41.6 percent of the total cast), to 6,758 (30.6 percent) for Doherty; the remaining candidates drew 6,095 votes. Doherty, an obscure county employee and a 2-year ward resident, was backed by state Representative Roger McAuliffe's organization. Turnout in the runoff was 25,480, the anti-Pucinski field coalesced behind Doherty, and he won 13,782-11,698, getting 54.1 percent of the vote.

An interesting subtext to the 2011 contest is the "E-Team," the "E" standing for estrogen. Three of the 11 contenders are women. The 41st Ward brims with testosterone, filled with police officers and patriarchal families who view the alderman's post as a man's job, in that it oversees the collection of trash, the resurfacing of streets and other muscle-reliant, dirty-hand tasks performed by men. Residents want services, and they historically have relied on a "tough guy" (like Doherty) or a connected insider (like Pucinski) to deliver. But it is entirely possible that the top two finishers on Feb. 22 will be women, setting up an "E-Team" runoff on April 5.

And now for something completely different: Instead of a drab and lengthy recitation of candidates' biographies and promises, I'll use sports vernacular. Based on personal observation, gossip, logic and prior performance, here's a scouting report on the contenders, in no particular order:

Maurita Gavin: An aide to Doherty for 15 years . . . assisted thousands of problem-beset residents, focusing on seniors . . . known fondly as the "ward mom . . . is sweet, patient, a people-pleaser . . . has encyclopedic knowledge of the city's service hierarchy . . . well known around Immaculate Conception Parish . . . raised three sons after ward superintendent husband died . . . from Oriole Park . . . has Doherty's endorsement . . . raised $30,210 through Dec. 31 . . . Doherty/McAuliffe precinct operation will exert one last hurrah. Does ward want a "sweet" alderman?

Mary O'Connor: Has owned and operated a catering business, now restaurant, for 20 years . . . served thousands of customers in ward . . . elected Democratic ward committeeman in 2008, getting 5,744 votes (45.5 percent of the total cast) and winning 39 precincts in a turnout of 12,613 . . . claims to have workers in all of the ward's 57 precincts . . . Democratic ally John Mulroe defeated Doherty for state senator in November, and O'Connor expects Mulroe's organization to deliver for her . . . appears angry at public forums . . . born in Norwood Park and lives in Edison Park . . . raised a puny $96 for ward party and $34,732 for alderman's race . . . not sweet and emotive . . . thinks  being committeeman entitles her to be alderman . . . getting no help from outside Democratic party sources or from the unions . . . takes credit for "Edison Park Fest" and "Edison Park Turkey Trot."

Richard Gonzalez: 18-year Chicago cop, currently a sergeant . . . has a master's degree in accounting and operates a property management firm . . . positioning himself as a tough guy who, to use a Rod Blagojevich platitude, has the "testicular virility" to protect the ward in the post-Daley era . . . wants to better "market" ward to businesses . . . base in Oriole Park and among fellow cops and their families, numbering 2,500 . . . of Puerto Rican descent, and ward has 3,000 Hispanic voters . . . raised $50,839 and emerged as the "E-Team" alternative . . . will spend $250,000 of own money . . . has six mailings planned . . . ethnic background a hard sell in an Irish-dominated ward.

Jim Mullen: Veteran police officer who was shot and paralyzed . . . resides in Edgebrook . . . fights perception that a quadriplegic cannot serve as alderman . . . has raised $20,433, and cuts into ward's police and Irish vote.

Brock Merck: Imaginative and articulate . . . police officer and union representative . . . lives in Wildwood . . . operates art supply stores and claims his savvy can revitalize the ward's business sector . . . ran for Cook County commissioner in November as Green Party candidate, getting 2,572 votes (12.9 percent of the total cast) in the 41st Ward, using attention-grabbing hand-made signs from his art store . . . doing likewise in this race . . . running as Tea Party, anti-tax candidate . . . reports no funds raised.

Barbara Ateca: Registered nurse . . . articulate and witty . . . from Norwood Park . . . touts experience in balancing business budgets.

John Quinn: Born and raised in Edgebrook . . . has lived in Edison Park since 1979 . . . real estate manager and fired city chief zoning inspector . . . says he's "not part of status quo" and "experienced city corruption" . . . cut into Edison Park's "Irish vote," at O'Connor's expense.

Tom Murphey: City planner pledges to serve only two terms . . . from Edison Park . . . articulate and forthright at forums . . . unknown with Irish name in ward with 5,000 Irish-surnamed voters . . . also hurts O'Connor in her base.

Dan Lapinski: Chicago firefighter whose campaign presence has been minimal . . . does not appear at forums . . . is only Polish-American candidate in ward with 4,400 Polish-surnamed voters.

George Banna: Civil engineer from Edgebrook . . . has been invisible.

James Schname: Utterly hopeless . . . "passed" when asked questions at recent forum . . . going nowhere.

With an incumbent, the election is a referendum. Opponents "go negative" on the alderman, jousting to be the most viable alternative. With an open seat, it becomes a choice among contenders, each struggling define themselves and to assemble sufficient votes among their friends and neighbors to make the runoff, at which time they can begin to negatively define and savage their foe. To attack a foe in the initial election is foolhardy.

The new City Council will resemble the Roman Coliseum, with the Christians facing the lions. With a new mayor, up to 20 new aldermen and a council dominated by such lions as Ed Burke and Dick Mell, 41st Ward voters subliminally understand that the next 4 years will consist of mortal combat over shrinking city services and funding. An alderman who is not a gladiator will be irrelevant.

As such, aldermanic candidates will be judged on their intellectual capacity, toughness, ingenuity and leadership ability. The ward has serious problems: School overcrowding, a decrepit Norwood Park commercial district, deployment of area police elsewhere, a potential explosion of property taxes to fund city pensions. The ward "has seen better days," O'Connor said. "There is a declining quality of life," Gonzalez noted. "We need vision," Merck added. "It's depressing to see all the empty storefronts," Ateca said.

The candidates' mantra: No new taxes. No cut in services. This much is certain: The new alderman will be a rookie, and voters will want a tough rookie, not a nice rookie.

Turnout in the aldermanic election in 2007 was 13,784. It was 20,880 in November, and Doherty won the ward by 8,302-7,266, a margin of just 1,036 votes. With an open mayoral race, voter interest is high, and turnout on Feb. 22 will be 17,000 to 18,000. No candidate will win a majority, necessitating a runoff.

The ward has 36,095 registered voters and 16,000 households. It costs $9,000 per wardwide mailing. Ten of the 57 precincts are in Edison Park, the area west of Harlem Avenue from Devon Avenue to Howard Street, which casts 20 percent of the ward's vote. Norwood Park, the area bordered by Albion, Bryn Mawr, Nagle and Canfield avenues, contains 17 precincts and casts 30 percent of the vote. Edgebrook and Wildwood, the area east of Caldwell Avenue, contains nine precincts and casts 18 percent of the vote. Oriole Park and Union Ridge, the area from Nagle to Cumberland Avenue south of Bryn Mawr, contains 13 precincts and casts 24 percent of the vote. The area west of Cumberland, which is glutted with apartments, contains eight precincts which cast 10 percent of the vote.

Independent Forrest Claypool got 50.2 percent of the vote in the ward in the 2010 assessor's race, and Pat Quinn won by a tight 9,914-9,326, with 47.5 percent of the vote.

With 11candidates and a turnout of 17,500, the "magic number" on Feb. 22 is 3,500 votes, or just 20 percent. Doherty predicts that Gavin will get 7,000 votes. O'Connor thinks she can draw another 5,700 votes. No way.

My prediction: Banna and Schname will draw a combined 500 votes, Ateca will get 500, Lapinski and Merck will get 900 each, Mullen and Murphey will get 1,000 apiece, and Quinn will get 1,200.

That leaves 11,500 votes. Gavin, O'Connor and Gonzalez rank as the least unelectable, but not necessarily the most popular. Gavin's west Norwood Park/Oriole Park base and Doherty connection are worth 3,800 votes, and O'Connor's Edison Park and Democratic bases also are worth 3,800 votes. Gonzalez is closing fast, and he will get at least 3,500 votes, maybe more, depending on how the testosterone-charged male vote breaks.

The issues and the candidates remain undefined. Gavin and O'Connor lack money. If Gonzalez' blizzard of direct mail pieces resonate, he will finish second.