December 29, 2010
"NO-HDO DISORDER" AFFLICTS HISPANIC WARDS IN 2011
A crippling malaise has afflicted Chicago's 11 Hispanic-majority wards, known by the acronym NHDOD. It's rendered many incumbent officeholders politically impotent, and others omnipotent. It's called the "No HDO (Hispanic Democratic Organization) Disorder." In 1999, 2003 and 2007, the pro-Daley HDO, brainchild of Victor Reyes and Al Sanchez, used their army of city workers to flood the Hispanic wards on behalf of Daley and their pro-Daley aldermanic candidates. Now Sanchez is in jail for job-rigging, and Daley is out the door. Prior HDO-backed victors are in extreme jeopardy, as they lack money and manpower in 2011. In three wards, "Tio Tacos" -- Hispanic Uncle Toms -- have kept white aldermen (Burke, Mell and Pope) in office. In South Side Mexican-American wards (12, 22, 25), incumbents Cardenas, Solis and Munoz could lose. In the North Side Puerto Rican wards (26, 30, 31, 35), Ald. Reboyras faces anti-HDO liberal Delgado, and Ald. Colon (once anti-HDO) faces a reformer with liberal and white support. In the city clerk's race, Susana Mendoza faces a black, but should win. In the mayor's race, del Valle and Chico are splitting the citywide Hispanic vote, which numbers only about 70,000. Full Article...
December 22, 2010
DEMOCRATS' DOWNSTATE "DEBACLE" HAS 2014 IMPLICATIONS
The least reported development of the 2010 election was Illinois' Democratic Downstate "debacle." Republicans gained 6 Downstate state representative seats, giving them 31 of 43 from the area. That's a huge realignment. Historically, with its concentration of unions around Decatur, Peoria and East St. Louis, Downstate was more Democratic than Republican. But now, in a cultural sense, Democrats have become repugnant: They're pro-gun control, pro-abortion rights, pro-gay rights, pro-tax hikes, and pro-spending. Plus, virtually every prominent state Democrat is a Chicagoan. In the governor race, Pat Quinn won only 4 of 102 counties. With Downstate in the Republican fold, it offsets the Chicago minority vote for the Democrats, making the collar counties the key to statewide elections. In the ongoing Rahm Emanuel melodrama, expect the judiciary to be creative, and put Emanuel on the ballot; they will decide that "government service" is akin to military service. The 2014 governor's race has begun. After 4 years, Quinn will be reviled. Expect a Democratic governor primary between Lisa Madigan and Sheila Simon. Full Article...
December 15, 2010
CHICAGO DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEEMEN ARE NOW POLITCAL EUNUCHS
They ain't what they used to be. Chicago Democratic ward committeemen were once undisputed czars of their realm. Now, they have no clout, control few (if any) patronage jobs, and get little respect. Mayor Daley's departure will cause the situation to further deteriorate. With federal investigations and Shakman, and with the new mayor owing few debts, there will be no new jobs. For many committeemen, their fate -- as they face voters in 2012 -- is inextricably tied to the success of their 2011 aldermanic candidates (or their own, if they are seeking the job). Committeemen in the 45th (Levar), 38th (Cullerton), 36th (Banks), 19th (O'Shea), 50th (Silverstein), 32nd (Fritchey) and 48th (Ronen) wards are under huge pressure to produce a significant vote on Feb. 22, 2011 for their aldermanic candidate. If they fail, they will prove themselves political eunuchs. Full Article...
December 8, 2010
2010'S 4-SEAT REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL GAIN IN ILLINOIS WAS AN "ALIGNING" EVENT
Illinois, in 4 2010 congressional races, has aligned itself with the pre-Obama era -- specifically, 2002. Democrats lost 65 U.S. House seats nationally, and 4 in Illinois, on Nov. 2. The defeated Democrats -- Melissa Bean (D-8), Bill Foster (D-14), Debbie Halvorson (D-11) and Phil Hare (D-17) -- were all unadulterated, undeviating supporters of the Obama agenda. They paid the price. In their rural/suburban districts, voters reverted to norm -- which meant early- or pre-Bush Republican predilections. The 2010 vote indicated that the 2008 Obama "surge" was an aberration. "Change we need" became "change we don't want." Illinois' congressional delegation is now 11-8 Republican; it was 12-7 Democratic. Full Article...
December 1, 2010
EMANUEL'S RESIDENCY CHALLENGE IS SERIOUS
Can you say: "Mayor Gery Chico"? If Chicago mayoral frontrunner Rahm Emanuel is disqualified from the 2011 ballot for residency issues, Chico will be the next mayor. As of Nov. 22, 20 candidates had filed for mayor, of which 10 are credible. 6 are black, 3 Hispanic, and Emanuel the most viable white. With 9 non-white contenders fractionalizing the 40% non-white vote, and Emanuel sure to get 80% of the 50% white vote, Emanuel is a winner -- if he's on the ballot. But Rob Halpin, Emanuel's tenant at his Hermitage home, also filed. Why? Emanuel moved his family to Washington in Jan. 2009, and rented his house to Halpin, Chicago law requires a mayoral contender to have been a "resident" of Chicago for 1 year prior to the election (2/22/11). Emanuel filed, listing his "residence" as a Milwaukee Ave. condo. He voted out of Hermitage in '09 and '10. Both Emanuel (and family) and Halpin did not simultaneously reside at Hermitage. Make no mistake, the Rahm-Man has a serious ballot access problem. If Rahm is off, white Democratic committeemen will coalesce behind Chico as the least unacceptable non-white candidate. Full Article...
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