October 27, 2010
DEMOCRATS TRY TO COPE WITH "OBAMA OBSTACLE": HERE'S 11/2 PREDICTIONS
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
The disgraced and departed John Edwards, who was the Democratic candidate for vice president in 2004, once mused that there are "two Americas" -- rich and poor. That cliche can be applied locally: There are "two Chicagos" -- white and nonwhite.
In a sample ballot prepared by the Cook County Democratic Party, which features President Barack Obama's photo, county chairman Joe Berrios, the Democrats' candidate for assessor, proclaims that Obama's "work has just begun . . . keep his agenda on track" and adds "the Republican smear machine is fully operational . . . (and) will turn back the progress" of Obama.
That literature is already in the dumpster behind every Northwest Side Democratic headquarters. "With all due respect, Obama has become poison among working-class voters," said one area Democratic committeeman. "The level of hostility is astounding."
Obama said in his inaugural address that it "took a lot of blood, sweat and tears to get to where we are today." On Nov. 3, after a night of blood and tears, the Democrats will begin to sweat the 2012 election, when Obama will be on the ballot.
There are two salient truths:
First, Illinois' gargantuan 2008 Obama vote of 3,419,348 will shrivel in November. The 2008 turnout of 5.57 million will regress to a normal off-year turnout of 3.6 million. In Cook County, the 2008 turnout of 2.2 million will decline to the 1.35 million level of 2006. That means far fewer Democratic votes.
Second, "undecided" voters invariably break against the incumbent or the incumbent party.
In the governor's race, incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn is still below 40 percent in most polls, while Republican Bill Brady is slightly above 40 percent. Independent Scott Lee Cohen is polling in the 10 to 15 percent range, and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is getting 3 to 5 percent. Quinn has been relentlessly blasting Brady, but if half the undecided vote of 5 to 8 percent break for Brady, he wins.
In the U.S. Senate race, both contenders, Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, are damaged goods. If voters had a "Return to Sender" line, it would surely prevail. Both candidates have significant character flaws, and neither has polled anywhere near 50 percent. Kirk, like Brady, is mired in the low 40s, but he is ahead of Giannoulias. The undecided vote is 10 to 15 percent. The Green Party and Libertarian Party candidates will amass 5 to 8 percent of the vote. Kirk wins if the gets half the undecideds.
Here are my Nov. 2 predictions:
U.S. Senate: The Democrats have a 59-41 majority. Republicans will gain nine Democratic seats: Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, Nevada, North Dakota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. They will hold open Republican seats in New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas and Kentucky. Prediction: It will be a 50-50 Senate.
In Illinois, where turnout will be around 3.5 million, the "magic number" is 1.6 million. The 2008 Senate race was won by Democrat Dick Durbin 3,615,844-1,520,621, with 67.8 percent of the vote, and Obama beat John McCain 3,419,348-2,031,179, getting 61.9 percent of the vote. To win in November, Kirk needs 78 percent of the McCain vote, while Giannoulias needs just 47 percent of the Obama vote.
Surveys indicate that the Republicans are more "energized" than the Democrats, but Kirk loses unless 500,000 Obama backers defect to Kirk or 1.8 million don't vote. That's possible. Giannoulias is fervently embracing Obama, who is cutting television ads for him.
In 1998, an auspicious Republican year, Republican Peter Fitzgerald beat flawed incumbent Democrat Carol Moseley Braun by 98,545 votes, getting 50.4 percent of the vote, carrying the 96 Downstate counties by 328,264 votes and the five Collar Counties by 164,442 votes, and losing Cook County by 394,161 votes. Kirk must do likewise.
My prediction: Kirk will lose Cook County by 375,000 votes and prevail elsewhere by 390,000 votes for a 15,000-vote win.
Governor: Brady will replicate Judy Baar Topinka's 2006 vote of 1,369,315 and add another 150,000 votes from his Downstate base. Prediction: In a 3.7 million turnout, Brady will beat Quinn by 80,000 votes, with 41 percent of the vote, with Cohen getting more than 650,000 votes (17.5 percent), to 1,440,000 (39 percent) for Quinn. Republicans Dan Rutherford and Topinka will win the contests for state treasurer and comptroller, respectively.
U.S. House: The Democrats' 255-178 majority will evaporate. Forty-two Democratic seats are rated as turnovers, including three in Illinois, which would give the Republicans 220 seats. Another 34 are rated as toss-ups -- an unenviable position for any incumbent. Another 53 Democratic seats are at risk.
A best-case scenario for Democrats: A 230-205 minority, losing 50 seats. A worst-case scenario: A hefty Republican majority of 255-180. My prediction: 250-185, an astounding Republican gain of 72 seats and the end of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's reign.
A sidelight: In the 14 southern states, with 145 congressional seats, Republicans hold an 82-63 majority. The Republicans likely will gain 24 seats in the region, giving them a 106-39 majority. Since 106 is nearly half the House majority, the Republican ascendancy looks permanent. After this election, almost every white-majority southern district will be held by a Republican and the Democrats will be relegated to minority districts. A new "Solid South" has emerged.
In Illinois, where Democrats have a 12-7 edge in the congressional delegation, five seats are in play. It's all about Obama. The key: In November every Democrat's vote will decline by 5 to 10 percent, and every Republican's will spike by a like amount. That means that the Democrats who won in 2008 with less than 60 percent of the vote are in jeopardy.
In the rural 11th District (Joliet, Ottawa, Kankakee), incumbent Democrat Debbie Halvorson, who got 58 percent of the vote in 2008, will pay a price for her Obama fealty. She will lose to Republican Adam Kinzinger. In the far south suburban 14th District (Fox River Valley, Aurora to Elgin), incumbent Democrat Bill Foster, who got 58 percent of the vote in 2008, also has been pro-Obama. He will lose to Republican Randy Hultgren.
In the western Illinois 17th District, which meanders along the Mississippi River from Rock Island to Decatur, pro-Obama incumbent Democrat Phil Hare, who was unopposed in 2008, is in trouble. He will lose to Republican Bobby Schilling.
On the cusp are the 8th (McHenry County) and 10th (Cook County's North Shore) districts, represented by Democrat Melissa Bean and Kirk, respectively. The pro-Obama Bean got 61 percent of the vote in 2008. Kirk eked out a 14,802-vote, 53 percent, win in 2008 over Dan Seals, who ran as an Obama champion. Seals faces Republican Bob Dold, and he is trying to distance himself from the president. Back in 1976, Democrat Abner Mikva beat incumbent Republican Sam Young by 201 votes. It will be equally close in 2010. Prediction: Dold wins.
Illinois Senate: With their 37-22 majority, Senate President John Cullerton and his Democrats have a veto-proof three-fifths majority. That will be history.
At least six Democratic seats are at risk: Mike Bond (31st) of Lake County, Mike Noland (22nd) of Elgin, Deanna Demuzio (49th) of Carlinville, A.J. Wilhelmi (43rd) of Joliet, Toi Hutchinson (40th) of Kankakee and appointed John Mulroe (10th) of the Northwest Side.
As detailed in last week's column, more than $1 million will be spent by both parties to capture Jim DeLeo's seat, to which Mulroe was appointed. Alderman Brian Doherty (41st), the Republican candidate, is being hammered for his pro-Daley City Council votes. Mulroe is being excoriated for holding "three patronage jobs" generating $150,000 in income. Prediction: Democratic organizations in the 45th and 38th wards will not deliver more than 55 percent of the vote for Mulroe. Doherty will win by more than 500 votes. The next Senate will be 32-27 Democratic.
Illinois House: Speaker Mike Madigan's 70-48 Democratic majority will take a hit, but the question is how much. At least 12 Democratic seats are in play, and the Glenview 17th District of outgoing Republican Beth Coulson could flip. Prediction: Republicans will gain a net of nine seats, shrinking the imperious Madigan's majority to 61-57.
Cook County Assessor: Mayor Rich Daley's retirement sucked the oxygen out of independent Forrest Claypool's campaign. Claypool has failed to ignite voters or to construct a viable coalition of anti-Obama conservatives and pro-Obama (but anti-Machine) liberals. Berrios, of Puerto Rican heritage, is clinging tightly to Obama's cloak. His strategy is to appeal to the party's black and Hispanic base and have white committeemen deliver 40 to 50 percent of the vote in their wards. "All Joe cares about is electing himself," said the committeeman. White committeemen will ignore Berrios.
Prediction: In Cook County, blacks comprise 30 percent of the registered vote and Hispanics make up 7 percent. Claypool would win a one-on-one contest, but with the Republican candidate drawing 15 percent of the vote, Claypool will fall short by 50,000 votes.
Cook County Board President: The putrid stink of Todd Stroger's reign is wafting away, but the Republicans won't benefit. Alderman Toni Preckwinkle, the Democratic nominee, is a black woman with no scandals and no tie to Stroger. "She will raise taxes," said Republican Roger Keats, a former state senator who has run a valiant campaign. He needs 25 percent of the black vote, and he won't get it. Prediction: Preckwinkle wins with over 60 percent of the vote.