July 28, 2010
"BLAME IT ALL ON DALEY," SAYS CHICAGO ALD. WAGUESPACK, WHO MAY RUN FOR MAYOR IN 2011
Being "Matlaked" is to Chicago politics what being "Bartmaned" is to Chicago Cubs baseball. It's a disaster. Without question, Mayor Rich Daley is the undisputed and undefeated champion of Chicago politics, but he could fall prey to the "Matlak Syndrome" in 2011, when he seeks another term. To the uninitiated, Ted Matlak was a lazy, lackadaisical, inept and ethically-suspect alderman from Chicago's 32nd Ward. As the Lakeview/Bucktown/Goose Island/Ukrainian Village area boomed from 1992 to 2006, all a developer needed for a spot rezoning to build a McMansion was to make a donation to Matlak and/or Democratic committeeman Terry Gabinski. In 2007, the ward's now-upscale voters tossed Matlak, and elected "reformer" Scott Waguespack by 121 votes. Waguespack won simply because residents so detested Matlak that they would have embraced anybody -- even Mickey Mouse -- as his replacement. Now Waguespack is angling to run for mayor in 2011. "Blame it all on Daley," he says, attributing all of the city's ills to the mayor. Polls show Daley is increasingly detested. He could be "Matlaked." Voters may choose to oust Daley, and if Waguespack is the only credible alternative, he could be elected. Full Article...
July 21, 2010
ILLINOIS "GROUND ZERO" IN U.S. HOUSE BATTLE
Democrats have a 75-seat majority in the U.S. House, but if 38 seats flip to the Republicans in 2010, the Democrats will be in the minority, and Nancy Pelosi will be the ex-speaker. According to the Rothenberg Political Report, 79 House seats are "in play" in 2010, meaning that a turnover is possible, if not likely; of that number, 67 are held by a Democrat. Illinois is "ground zero" in that battle, with Democratic incumbents Melissa Bean (8th), Bill Foster (14th) and Debbie Halvorson (11th) at risk, and the vacant seat of Mark Kirk, the Republican U.S. Senate nominee, a possible turnover to the Democrats. The arithmetic for 2010 is simple: Turnout will be 20-25% less than in a presidential year; the fervor of the Obama Nation has dissipated, so the overall Democratic vote (compared to 2008) will be down 10-15%; and the Republicans and conservatives are energized, so their turnout will be higher than usual. Bean, from the McHenry County area, and Foster, from the rural/semi-suburban DeKalb County area, have been loyal Obama backers; Halvorson's Will County-area district is a bit safer. A Republican "wave" would sink all three, and insure that Bob Dold beats Dans Seals in Kirk's north suburban 10th District. If the 3 Democrats lose, Republicans will have a 20-25 seat majority in the next U.S. House. Full Article...
July 14, 2010
REPUBLICAN PATLAK SCENTS WIN IN BD. OF REVIEW RACE
A Republican elected in Cook County? In your dreams. The party's vote for president is under 30%. But slice off all the Chicago and suburban minorities (black and Hispanic), the white liberals along the Lakefront and suburban enclaves like Evanston and Oak Park, and the Daley Machine strongholds on Chicago's northwest and southwest sides, and a Republican could win. That means getting 50% of the vote in the least Democratic one-third of the county. And that, quite coincidentally, coincides with the boundaries of the Board of Review's (BOR) 1st District, which was designed to elect a Republican. The BOR has 3 commissioners -- one elected from the south side black areas (Larry Rogers), one from the northwest side and Hispanic areas (Joe Berrios), and one from the suburbs (Brendan Houlihan). All are Democrats, and Berrios is the Democratic county chairman. The BOR is obscure but powerful. It can reduce property tax assessments, and, hence, property tax bills. Houlihan scored a huge upset in 2006, a banner Democratic year, beating incumbent Maureen Murphy (R) by 14,076 votes (51.4%). The 2010 Republican candidate is Dan Patlak, the Wheeling Township assessor. Tony Peraica got 64.6% in 2006 for board president. But the south suburbs (Rich and Thornton townships) have a growing black population. Patlak, in a banner Republican year, can win, but only if he carries the north and northwest suburbs by more than 25,000 votes. Full Article...
July 7, 2010
LIES, DAMN LIES & STATISTICS: COHEN, BERRIOS, FARRAKHAN AND GUNS
Mark Twain once opined that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. The statistics invariably debunk and rebut the lies. This column focuses on four lies: (1) Jews have an "undeniable record of anti-black behavior," said Nation of Islam Minister Louis Farrakhan. That's absurd. America has the world's largest Jewish population (5.7 million), and they are rock-ribbed Democrats. They helped elect Obama. There is a "nexus" between the Holocaust and slavery. And Jews are sympathetic toward disadvantaged minorities, as they once were. (2) Cook County "needs more Democrats," said Joe Berrios, party chairman and assessor candidate, who is facing independent Forrest Claypool. What bunk. A Democrat holds every office in Chicago and the county. Even a shoehorn can't get any more in. Berrios is wrapping himself tightly in the Obama mantle. Claypool, contends Berrios, will bring out voters who will elect Republicans, and that will defeat Obama in 2012. (3) There are no second chances in politics. Scott Lee Cohen, the much-maligned wealthy pawnbroker who won the Democratic Lt. Gov. nomination in Feb., but then capitulated to party pressure and withdrew, is on the ballot for Gov. as an independent. It's another Jesse Ventura situation. Now Cohen is a sympathetic figure. He'll get a large black and Jewish vote, and he is 2010's "protest" candidate. His 15-20% will sink Quinn and elect Brady. (4) Guns may kill people, but having a gun in one's home is now a constitutional right. And Chicago's gun law hasn't really reduced the killing. Full Article...
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