May 26, 2010
THREE MINI-COLUMNS: COHEN, POLLS AND DALEY

It's White Castle time. Here are three bite-sized, mini-columns on political developments: (1) Cohen beats Quinn. For Scott Lee Cohen, who is attempting to get on the Nov. 2010 ballot to run for governor as an independent, it's payback time. Cohen succumbed to party pressure, and resigned his Lt. Gov. nomination after winning the Feb. primary. He regrets that decision. He needs 75,000-plus signatures by 6/21. Gov. Pat Quinn surely understands that a Cohen candidacy, directed primarily toward blacks, would be his death knell. Cohen ensures a Brady (R) victory. (2) In 2008, the political buzzword was "change." In 2010, it's "new people." Polling in Illinois by Frank Luntz indicates that the Republican brand name is still poisonous, but that voters want "new people" in office. It's politician change. Voters revile such Democrats as Blagojevich, Stroger, Burris, Madigan, and to a lesser extent, Daley, Giannoulias and Quinn. Republicans, by default, may be the "new people" of 2010. (3) It won't be a "free pass" for Mayor Daley in 2011, but he is favored. Polls show "Daley fatigue," but Chicagoans are leery of exchanging the tolerable mayor they know for an untested model. A white liberal, either Scott Waguespack or David Hoffman, is getting set to run for mayor.Full Article...


May 19, 2010
REPUBLICANS MUST REVERSE "COLLAR COUNTY" COLLAPSE

 

In years past, the arithmetic for a Republican victory in Illinois was simple: Democrats would win Cook County (and Chicago) by roughly 500,000 votes, but Republicans would roll up a margin of more than 500,000 in the collar counties and Downstate. Those calculations are now antiquated and irrelevant. In the 1972 presidential race, Republicans won Illinois by 874,707 votes; that declined to 376,636 in 1980. In 1992, Republicans lost the state by 719,254, in 2000 by 569,605, and in 2008, against native son Obama, by 1,388,169. As usual, Cook County delivered hugely for the Democrats. McCain got a mere 14% of the vote in Chicago, and Obama won the county by 1,141,288 votes. But the reversal of norm in the collar counties -- DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will -- has been astounding. Those counties gave Nixon a 252,501 margin in 1972, and Bush a margin of 97,626 in 2000. But they went for Obama by 171,814 in 2008. Demographics, disillusionment (which prompted a higher turnout) and dysfunction (among Republicans) is the blame. Unless Republicans recover and rebound in the collar counties, Illinois will be a perpetual blue state.Full Article...


May 12, 2010
MEMORANDUM TO BILL BRADY: BE MUTE AND SCARCE TO BEAT PAT QUINN

An ancient proverb: Better to say nothing, and be thought a fool, than to say something, and prove it. For Bill Brady, the still-obscure Republican candidate for Illinois' governor, anonymity is his protective cloak. For Brady, the less said, the better. The Nov. 2010 election is a referendum on beleaguered Gov. Pat Quinn (D) and the state's dysfunctional, Democratic-run government. Quinn has proven himself a spineless vacillator whose avoidance of tough decisions (and reversal of timid decisions) has become legendary. With a $13 billion revenue deficit, and the Madigan-run legislature deferring a tax increase until after the Nov. election, a fiscal "train wreck" is imminent -- and the primary casualty is Quinn. Brady is a social conservative, and his signature issue is: NO TAX HIKE. Brady has two huge advantages: Right time, right place. Any Republican -- even Bozo the Clown -- will be elected governor. If Brady keeps his tongue in check and makes himself scarce, he'll win.. Full Article...


May 5, 2010
NO "AGE OF AQUARIUS" AS LEVAR FOES EMERGE IN 45TH WARD

There's no dawning "Age of Aquarius" in Chicago's Northwest Side 45th Ward. As the 2011 aldermanic election commences, peace, love, harmony and bliss are nowhere to be found. Ald. Pat Levar, first elected in 1987, already faces a field of 7 opponents. That's not auspicious for the incumbent. In 1991, then-Ald. Roman Pucinski (41st) also faced 7 foes, was forced into a runoff, and lost. The anti-Levar candidates are John Arena, Bruno Bellissimo, Don Blair, John Garrido, Anna Klocek, Jose Rivera and Greg Sedlacek...with Arena, Blair and Garrido being the most formidable (and maybe Klocek). All criticize Levar's stewardship. All promise transparency and leadership. All are convinced that Levar is beatable. If turnout hits 16,000, then Levar's base of roughly 6,500-7,500 will be less than a majority, precipitating an April runoff with the runner-up -- who needs just 3,500 votes to finish second. Those who voted for the Anti-Levar Seven will back the surviving Levar challenger. Can you say: "Bye-bye Pat"?Full Article...


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