January 20, 2010
REBUBLICANS' 'STUPIDITY' MAY BE OVERCOME IN 2010

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Contrary to creationists' insistence that there is "intelligent design" in the origin of the human species, there is no evidence of that phenomenon among Illinois' Republicans. Because of stupid choices in the 1996 and 1998 U.S. Senate primaries, Republicans unintentionally foisted Dick Durbin and Barack Obama upon America. That's "unintelligent design."

However, the upcoming Republican primaries for governor, U.S. senator and U.S. representative in the North Shore 10th District are positively Darwinian.

The Republican species is now adapting to the survival of the most electable. The presence or absence of "movement" conservatives in key races is critical. The Feb. 2 winners will be Andy McKenna, Mark Kirk and Bob Dold. Here's why:

U.S. Senator: Kirk, a bland but credible liberal who supports gun control, abortion choice and gay rights, should be toast in a Republican primary, but he will win. The reason: 2010 is not 1996 or 1998. Beleaguered Republicans want a winner.

Kirk may be another Bob Kustra or Loleta Didrickson, but there is no Al Salvi or Peter Fitzgerald, spending millions of their own dollars, to beat him.

The array of 2010 Republican candidates for Barack Obama's former seat includes Kirk, a North Shore congressman since 2000, who faces desultory opposition from Hinsdale developer Pat Hughes, retired judge Don Lowery, incendiary blogger Andy Martin, who is attacking Kirk's sexual orientation, Harvey management consultant John Arrington, who is black, Kathy Thomas, a Springfield school board member, and Bob Zadek, a Rockford real estate agent.

In 1996, after the retirement of Democrat Paul Simon, Republicans were certain they would win his Senate seat. Kustra, who then was Illinois' lieutenant governor, was the choice of the Republican establishment, headed by Governor Jim Edgar. Kustra was deemed to be the most electable candidate.

However, Kustra also was viewed as a "moderate," and Salvi, a state representative from Wauconda in western Lake County, spent $1.1 million, positioned himself as a Newt Gingrich-type "revolutionary" and won an upset by 377,141-342,935, getting 47.6 percent of the vote and winning by a margin of 34,206 votes in a turnout of 791,645. Salvi won 48 of 102 counties, beat Kustra in Cook County by 3,762 votes, and won the Collar Counties of DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kane and Will by 129,640-107,283, a margin of 22,257 votes. Salvi won Downstate by more than 8,000 votes. The Republicans' DNA rejected electability in favor of purity.

In the ensuing election, Durbin excoriated Salvi as an "extremist" and crushed him by 2,384,028-1,728,824, getting 56.1 percent of the vote and winning by a margin of 655,204 votes. Now Durbin, the Senate's majority whip, is poised to become the Democratic majority leader, as Harry Reid's "light-skinned" comments about Obama will sink his already foundering 2010 reelection chances in Nevada. If Reid loses, Durbin will take over. Had Kustra won in 1996, Durbin would now be a college professor.

In 1998, when accidental incumbent Democrat Carol Moseley Braun sought a second term, Republicans had another tempestuous ideological primary: Didrickson, the state comptroller from the party's "moderate" Edgar-Kustra wing, faced conservative Peter Fitzgerald, a Palatine state senator. In a replication of 1996, Fitzgerald, the big-spending underdog and outsider, beat Didrickson by 372,916-346,606, getting 51.8 percent of the vote in a turnout of 719,522. Fitzgerald defeated Braun by 1,709,041-1,610,496, getting 50.3 percent of the vote and winning by a margin of 98,545 votes.

Fitzgerald was a principled, independent-minded conservative, but he refused to spend 5 years stockpiling money and frenetically campaigning, and he retired after one term. Had Didrickson been elected, she would have compiled a liberal record, raised $5 million and sought a second term in 2004. With no open seat, Obama may or may not have run, and if he had, he certainly would not have won by 3,597,456-1,390,690. Didrickson, as the incumbent, would have been tough to beat.

Rod Blagojevich acknowledged that his recent magazine remarks were "stupid, stupid, stupid." So, too, have been Republican choices for senator. It can be argued that, but for the 372,916 Illinois conservatives who backed Fitzgerald in the 1998 primary, Obama would not have become senator in 2004 and president in 2008.

Luckily for Kirk, Hughes is no Salvi or Fitzgerald. Hughes has plenty of issues with which to pummel Kirk, but not enough money. Hughes is ripping Kirk as a "reckless spender," a supporter of cap and trade legislation and the bank bailout, and a liberal on social issues and the Second Amendment. However, Kirk is opposed to the Obama Administration's health care initiatives and the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

For conservative Republicans, Kirk is tough to swallow. They know he will be an obnoxiously liberal senator, but they've learned their lesson. Electing a Democrat like David Hoffman, Alexi Giannoulias or Cheryle Jackson would create another liberal monster.

The magic number for Kirk is 60 percent of the vote. Any less would be an embarrassment. A December Chicago Tribune poll put Kirk at 41 percent and Hughes at 3 percent, with 46 percent undecided. My prediction: Kirk will win with 67 percent of the vote.

Governor: It only took one Republican to elect Blagojevich in 2002, and that was corrupt Governor George Ryan. In an oust-every-Republican year, Jim Ryan, then the state attorney general, got caught in the undertow, losing to Blagojevich by 1,847,040-1,594,960, getting 52.2 percent of the vote and losing by a margin of 252,080 votes. Blagojevich spent $10 million, carried 35 counties, and won Cook County by 468,974 votes, but it was no landslide.

Now Jim Ryan is back, hoping that "voters' remorse," coupled with his residual -- and still positive -- name recognition, will give him the Republican nomination. His foes are state Senators Kirk Dillard and Bill Brady, wealthy businessmen Andy McKenna and Andy Andrzejewski, publicist Dan Proft and DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom.

Republican voters are angry and motivated, opposing any state income tax or spending hike, but no gubernatorial candidate has captured their fancy. The Chicago Tribune poll had Ryan at 26 percent, McKenna at 12, Brady at 10, Dillard at 9 and the others all under 3 percent, with 31 percent undecided. Ryan loses if two-thirds of the "undecideds" break entirely for McKenna, Dillard or Brady; he wins if one-third break for him.

The outlook: Brady got 18.4 percent of the vote (135,370 votes) in the 2006 primary, largely from Downstate. He won't crack 20 percent this time. Dillard's ads feature Edgar's endorsement. McKenna is spending $500,000 per week on advertising, and he pledges no tax hike and no spending hike. Proft is calling for a "revolution" in Springfield. Ryan and Dillard do not forswear a possible income tax hike to solve the state's budget problem. Republican insiders fear Ryan's "baggage" will make him unelectable.

In the 2002 primary, Ryan, as the "establishment" candidate, won with 410,074 votes (44.7 percent of the total cast), in a turnout of 917,759. Conservative Pat O'Malley, got 260,860 votes (28.4 percent), and liberal Corrine Wood got 246,825 votes (26.9 percent). This year Dillard is the "establishment" choice, but he, Ryan and Schillerstrom are all from DuPage County, and they will split DuPage's 100,000 votes.

McKenna, much like Blagojevich in 2002, is unknown and undefined, and he has unlimited money. He and Proft are trying to make themselves the "send a message" candidates. Dillard and Brady are the "I can govern better" candidates. Ryan is running on his resume.

My prediction: McKenna has the greatest potential for growth. Hard-core conservatives will break for him. In a turnout of less than 700,000, Ryan and McKenna will finish neck-and-neck: McKenna will get 182,000 votes (26 percent of the total cast), to Ryan's 168,000 (24 percent), Dillard's 133,000 (19 percent), Brady's 105,000 (15 percent), Proft's 77,000 (11 percent), Schillerstrom's 21,000 (3 percent) and Andrzejewski's 14,000 (2 percent).

The election will be a replication of 2002: Any competent Republican will beat the Democratic candidate.

10th U.S. House District: The primary field to succeed Kirk includes state Representative Beth Coulson (R-17), wealthy businessmen Bob Dold and Dick Green, and unknowns Paul Hamann and Arie Friedman. Coulson is liberal on social issues but fiscally conservative; everybody else is more conservative on all issues. Kirk's predecessor, John Porter, endorsed Coulson. The early presumption was that, with a plethora of conservatives, Coulson would win.

In 2000, with Porter's endorsement, Kirk won the primary with 31.4 percent of the vote (19,717 votes) in a field of 11 candidates, all less liberal than he is. The turnout was 62,805.

Coalescing anti-Obama hostility with high visibility, Dold has emerged as the "movement" conservative. It's a two-person race. Coulson's base is about 40 percent, but more than 75 percent of the conservatives are gravitating to Dold. "He is a legitimate, electable alternative" to Coulson, said one Republican insider. My prediction: Dold defeats Coulson by 45 percent to 40 percent.

Cook County Board President: "I'm campaigning; he's not. I'm electable; he's not," said John Garrido of his opponent, Roger Keats, a former state senator. Garrido, a Northwest Side Chicago police lieutenant has backing from police organizations and area Republicans. Keats has been endorsed by most of the Republican ward and township organizations.

The Republican nomination is valueless if the Democrats nominate Toni Preckwinkle, but golden if they choose Todd Stroger, Dorothy Brown or Terry O'Brien. My prediction: In a turnout of 110,000, Keats wins with 65 percent of the vote.