January 6, 2010
DEMOCRATS' "B-TEAM" CONFRONTS FUBAR IN 10TH DISTRICT

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Militaristic colloquialisms and acronyms are flying fast and furious in the Northwest Side 10th Illinois Senate District, as Democrats' control of the seat held by retiring Democrat Jim DeLeo is at serious risk.

SNAFU, retreat, bailout, AWOL, B-Team and FUBAR are the most prevalent. Here's a glossary:

DeLeo, age 58, who has been a senator since 1992, never faced opposition. The 2001 remap merged the districts of DeLeo and Republican Wally Dudycz, excising suburban territory and making the new district heavily Democratic. Dudycz retired. DeLeo was unopposed in 2002 and 2006. Although an assistant majority leader, DeLeo never had hope to be the Senate president, the post won by his close ally, Democrat John Cullerton, in 2009.

DeLeo's successor was supposed to be dictated by the 36th Ward, where DeLeo and former alderman Bill Banks rule the roost. The seat "belonged" to them. But DeLeo refused to resign in 2009 because Banks had not cleared the way for the 36th Ward's Mark Donovan to be appointed his successor. That was a SNAFU (Situation Normal: All Fouled Up).

When DeLeo finally announced his retirement in August, to leave at the end of his term in 2010, 38th Ward Democratic Committeeman Patti Jo Cullerton had staked out the job. Committeemen defer to other committeemen, so Donovan and Rob Martwick, the son of the Norwood Park Township committeeman, folded their candidacies and did a retreat. But then Cullerton, citing personal reasons, did a bailout and quit. For weeks, both local and Springfield Democrats pressured Alderman Tom Allen (38th) to run, but he went AWOL and declined. Donovan and Martwick chose not to re-enter the fray.

That left the Democratic field to an unimposing gaggle of aspirants, a veritable B-Team: John Mulroe, Wanda Majcher, Mary Anselmo and Tom Ryan. And, with Alderman Brian Doherty (41st) assured the Republican nomination, Democrats resigned themselves to FUBAR, a situation "Fouled Up Beyond All Repair," and a Doherty win in November.

Nevertheless, the so-called B-Team is bright-eyed, bushy-tailed and brimming with optimism. "Doherty is not well liked," said Mulroe, an Edison Park attorney. "It's a Democratic district," said Ryan, a retired real estate agent and a longtime Democratic precinct captain. "People don't want another politician," asserted Anselmo, an upper-echelon administrator with the Clerk of the Circuit Court's Office. "Voters want a change," said Majcher, a state investigator with extensive ties in the Polish-American community. Call them the "Feeble Foursome" -- unknown, underfunded and utterly ignored.

Resembling a bell, the 10th District extends from Howard Street at Harlem Avenue south to Belmont Avenue, between Kostner Avenue and River Road. It contains 201 precincts, including 40 in the 36th Ward, 46 in the 38th Ward, 39 in the 41st Ward, 46 in the 45th Ward, one in the 29th Ward, 22 in Norwood Park Township (Norridge and Harwood Heights) and seven in Niles.

Turnout in the Democratic primary was 21,949 in 2006 and 31,323 in 2002. It will be around 20,000 in 2010.

There have been two notable area Senate Democratic primaries, both in higher-turnout presidential years. In 1992 Jim McGing of the 41st Ward, who now is a judge, was the slated candidate, and he beat independent Ron Gibbs by 16,973-13,790, getting 57.9 percent of the vote. McGing lost to Dudycz by 3,111 votes, with 48.4 percent of the vote. In 1988 Dick Valentino of the 38th Ward was slated, and he beat Ron Calicchio of the 36th Ward by 21,695-14,383, with 60.1 percent of the vote. Valentino lost to Dudycz by 28,360 votes, getting 34.6 percent of the votes cast. The common thread: Slated candidates are favored, and the 36th Ward delivers a sizable vote.

Not so in 2010. The committeemen did not slate a candidate, creating an open primary in which each ward or township endorses whom they wish, and the 36th Ward, with the retirements of DeLeo and Banks, is in disarray.

Mulroe is backed by Democratic committeemen Cullerton (38th), Pat Levar (45th), Mary O'Connor (41st), Richard Martwick (Norwood Park) and Laura Murphy (Maine). Anselmo claims Banks' support. DeLeo has made no endorsement.

The primary voter base is as follows: 9,000 each in the 41st and 45th wards, 7,000 each in the 38th and 36th wards, and 2,000 in the suburbs. That's roughly 34,000 potential voters in 11,000 "hard" Democratic households, meaning those who voted Democratic in three primaries this decade, and another 5,000 "soft" households, with one primary vote.

A viable campaign would require at least two mailings per household, at a cost of $12,000 each. Add to that the cost of yard signs, fliers, headquarters, phone banks and staff, and a candidate would have to raise $75,000.

The primary will be on Feb. 2, and it's safe to conclude the following: The "Feeble Foursome" lack the time to establish name identity, define issue separation, assemble workers and raise money. Campaigning door-to-door during January is a painful endeavor, and voters are not paying attention. Primaries used to be held in late March. Another example of FUBAR in Illinois.

Here's a candidate analysis, focusing on experience, energy and visibility:

Ryan, age 62, has the most political experience. His Irish-born parents settled on Chicago Avenue, and Ryan came of age in Tom Keane's 31st Ward organization. He's been a precinct captain for 42 years, currently in Levar's ward. He is a journeyman electrician, was an assistant superintendent of Chicago police and fire communication, and has sold real estate for 35 years. Regarding the state's fiscal situation and possible income tax hike, Ryan is emphatic: "Never. I will never vote for a tax increase."

Advantage: Ryan knows how to work precincts, structure a campaign and deploy workers. He has a basketful of contacts. Liability: Ryan lacks money, can't afford mailings, doesn't have the time to assemble an army, and won't get the support of longtime pals such as Levar or John Donovan, Banks' political aide, whom Ryan grew up with in the 31st Ward. Prediction: Ryan will get 4,100 votes.

Anselmo, age 55, hasn't a clue. She's the proverbial babe in the woods. She calls herself the "common sense" candidate, and she said that she has a "different way of looking at things," but she is really an insider masquerading as an outsider. Her husband, Henry, is a boyhood chum of Neil Hartigan, the former state attorney general, and was his executive assistant. He is the chief Springfield lobbyist for the Chicago Teachers' Pension Fund. But the candidate has a record: She has been the chief deputy clerk for training and development in Dorothy Brown's office for 19 years. According to sources, Banks is backing Anselmo because her husband asked DeLeo. Anselmo filed only 1,800 signatures, and none came from Banks' precinct captains.

On fiscal issues, Anselmo said she favors "some cuts" but that she will back "some type of tax hike" to close the budget hole.

Advantage: "I'm a woman," Anselmo said. "When I knock on doors, people tell me: Those guys put us in this mess, and a woman can get us out." But Majcher splits the gender vote. Liability: Anselmo has no precinct operation, and she is criss-crossing the district helter-skelter, throwing her fliers on stairs. There is no follow-up. She won't get half of the 36th Ward vote. She's backing Brown in the Cook County Board president primary. Prediction: Anselmo will get 3,200 votes.

Mulroe, age 50, is the son of Irish-born parents, and he has had a law practice in Edison Park for 15 years. He ran for subcircuit judge in 2008, losing the Democratic primary by just 1,190 votes. Mulroe is a former assistant state's attorney, Saint Juliana School Board president and Edison Park Community Council president. He has been endorsed by the AFL-CIO, the Illinois Federation of Teachers, the Chicago Teachers Union and Park Ridge state Senator Dan Kotowski (D-33).

On fiscal issues, Mulroe said he "will vote against any income tax increase." Advantage: Mulroe plans two mailings, and he has backing from key committeemen and unions. Liability: He lacks charisma and a coherent message. Prediction: Mulroe will get 7,900 votes.

The Polish-born Majcher, age 47, is an energetic cancer survivor with vast community involvement. "I want to serve, and serve now," she said. She was a health administrator and a Polish media executive, she ran the "Taste of Polonia" and other events at the Copernicus Center for 5 years, and she now is an investigator for the Illinois Department of Human Rights. "People are tired of nepotism, corruption and excessive spending," Majcher said. "I am a conservative, independent Democrat. Nobody will tell me how to vote."

Advantage: Majcher will tap the district's hefty Polish-American vote, and she has a plenitude of contacts. Liability: She lacks money and the time to build her coalition. Prediction: Majcher will get 4,500 votes.

Then Mulroe will face Doherty, who has been promised $500,000 by Springfield Republicans. It's a 2-year term, and the remap will be in 2011. Kotowski wants to absorb the 41st Ward into his district, and Banks and DeLeo want to run Mark Donovan in 2012. The 2010 winner will have no edge in 2012.