October 28, 2009
"SUPERFLY SYNDROME" KEY TO DEMOCRATIC GOVERNOR PRIMARY
ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART
Here's a no-brainer prediction on the 2010 Democratic primary for governor between Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes: The baddest, blackest "White Dude" will win.
Say what? Neither Quinn, Illinois' very own "Governor Jell-O," who quivers and equivocates daily, nor Hynes, who resembles a zombie in his TV commercials and who has the charisma of a toad, has any visceral appeal to black voters. They ain't Bill Clinton, who has often been characterized as America's first black president. They're just two clueless white guys with no finger on the black pulse.
In fact, both have lost Democratic primaries for U.S. senator -- Quinn in 1996 and Hynes in 2004 -- because the non-white electorate overwhelmingly supported their opponent. Yet one will triumph on Feb. 2.
Black voters, comprising a third of Democratic primary voters, hold the key. Call it the "Super Fly Syndrome." Black voters almost universally support black candidates in primaries, but black candidates only win high-profile races if they attract at least a third of the white vote. That occurred in 2004, when Barack Obama won the U.S. Senate primary with 52.8 percent of the vote, and in 1998, when Jesse White won the secretary of state primary with 55.8 percent of the vote.
In 1994, 1998 and 2002 the hapless Roland Burris, now Illinois' appointed black senator, lost the governor's race in multi-candidate fields, getting 36.5 percent, 30.5 percent and 29.1 percent of the vote, respectively. In 2002 Joyce Washington lost the lieutenant governor primary to Quinn, getting 32.5 percent of the vote. The exception was 1994, when Earlean Collins won the comptroller primary with 36.1 percent of the vote, beating three white candidates.
But when it's just white candidates running, black voters opt for the "blackest white," namely, whoever lines up backing from black ministers, advertises heavily on black radio stations, has support from black committeemen and trumpets black issues.
In six past Democratic primaries with only white major candidates, the black vote was decisive:
1994: Quinn, then the state treasurer, got a wild hair up his you-know-what and foolishly decided to run for secretary of state against Republican George Ryan, whose indictable offenses were mushrooming but still unpublicized. Quinn faced Downstater Denny Jacobs, a Moline state senator, in the primary.
Quinn won by 641,897-141,058, getting 70.5 percent of the vote, with a fringe black candidate, Rose-Marie Love, getting 126,939 votes (13.9 percent). Quinn had 392,568 votes in Cook County, 269,524 in Chicago, and 96,817 in Chicago's predominantly black wards . . . or about half of the black vote.
1994: Marty Oberman was a Lakefront Chicago alderman from 1975 to 1987 and part of the "Washington 21" during Mayor Harold Washington's first term. He retired in 1987, and he ran for attorney general in 1994. His opponent was wealthy trial lawyer Al Hofeld, who lost a U.S. Senate primary in 1992. Hofeld spent liberally, and he won by 573,033-420,019, getting 57.7 percent of the vote and taking Downstate and the Collar Counties with 64.5 percent of the vote.
Hofeld won Cook County by a much narrower 334,955-289,405, with 53.6 percent of the vote. Oberman ran first in Chicago by 234,991-198,410, winning 70 percent of the black vote, with 107,303 of his votes coming from the predominantly black wards. But that couldn't overcome Hofeld's money and Downstate base.
1996: Two-term Democratic U.S. Senator Paul Simon retired, and the primary contenders were Quinn and 14-year U.S. Representative Dick Durbin of Springfield. Quinn was well known, coming off statewide races in 1986, 1990 and 1994. Simon backed Durbin, as did the Cook County Democratic apparatus. Durbin was obscure, but Quinn was detested by party officials.
The result was a blowout: Durbin trashed Quinn by 512,520-233,138, getting 64.9 percent of the vote. Durbin won his Downstate base by 178,189-44,179, with 80.1 percent of the vote, the Collar Counties by 41,501-22,499 (64.8 percent), Cook County by 292,830-166,460 (63.7 percent) and Chicago by 213,157-121,367 (63.7 percent). Durbin trounced Quinn in the county's three black-majority congressional districts by 99,921-55,131, with 64.4 percent of the vote. The appeal of Quinn's liberal populism was squashed by the black committeemen.
1998: Ever persistent and resilient, Quinn ran for lieutenant governor against the slated Mary Lou Kearns, the Kane County coroner. Quinn lost by just 1,468 votes, getting 49.8 percent of the vote and effectively rehabilitating himself. He won Cook County by 243,556-202,917 and Chicago by 164,946-135,922, and he won the black-majority congressional districts by 117,688-81,840, with 58.9 percent of the vote. Half of Quinn's countywide vote came from black areas.
The obvious conclusion: Black committeemen didn't exert themselves mightily for the obscure Kearns. Quinn's reputation got him a majority of the black vote.
2002: Black candidates were running for governor (Burris), lieutenant governor (Washington) and secretary of state (White), but for attorney general, it was two white candidates, Lisa Madigan and John Schmidt.
Schmidt, a former federal prosecutor, got 236,309 votes (24.9 percent of the total cast) in the 1998 primary for governor, and he positioned himself as a "reformer," stressing that his foe was Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan's daughter. Again, the black vote was critical. Madigan won statewide by 698,250-501,190, with 58.2 percent of the vote, and by 424,560-290,378 in Cook County, a margin of 134,182 votes. She won the black congressional districts by 221,157-108,597, with 67 percent of the vote and by a margin of 112,560 votes. Madigan's daddy made sure that black committeemen delivered for her.
2006: Obama's presidential ambitions were then embryonic, but banker Alexi Giannoulias, a major fund-raiser in Obama's 2004 Senate campaign, wanted to be state treasurer. The party slated Paul Mangieri, the Knox County state's attorney; he was Mike Madigan's choice, and Madigan was the state chairman. But Giannoulias had two advantages: lots of family money and Obama's endorsement.
The outcome wasn't even close: Giannoulias crushed Mangieri by 536,329-331,672, with 61.8 percent of the vote, carrying Cook County by 355,929-191,174 and Downstate and the Collar Counties by 180,400-140,498. Giannoulias won in Chicago by 220,900-125,180, and he won the black-majority wards by 116,841-49,536, getting 70.2 percent of the vote. Madigan tried to pressure black committeemen to back Mangieri, but Obama's endorsement was magical.
So how does the Quinn-Hynes primary shape up?
First, the dominant issue in Illinois is corruption. Quinn was Rod Blagojevich's lieutenant governor. Did he have his head in the sand? Did he hear or see no evil? Hynes must mercilessly pound Quinn for his tie to the disgraced former governor. How could Quinn not have witnessed "pay to play" for 6 years and say nothing?
Cynical voters respond: Who cares which crook will be governor?
Second, Quinn is not yet in deep doo-doo. He played "Chicken Little," prophesizing doomsday unless state income taxes were raised, but they weren't and state government didn't shut down. Hynes accuses Quinn of proposing a 50 percent state personal income tax hike, but it wasn't passed. Voters don't feel any pain. They may be disappointed in Quinn, perhaps disgusted, but not yet outraged.
A Rasmussen tracking poll indicated that Quinn's favorable rating dropped from 57 percent to 45 percent from June to October, and it surely will plummet further. Quinn has been indecisive and ineffectual. He couldn't even get his vaunted campaign reforms passed. Quinn is a failure.
Third, Hynes is relying solely on television commercials. He has spent $753,000 on ads, to Quinn's $688,000. Hynes' thrust is that Quinn wanted to raise taxes on everybody, while Hynes would only raise taxes on those making more than $200,000. That's just stupid. Voters don't get enthused about somebody who wants to raise taxes the least.
Fourth, Hynes' message is wrongly focused. It should be: Pat Quinn is bad for Illinois. He's "Governor Jell-O." He's a patsy of the status quo, and he's a loser. Democratic insiders worry that Hynes' attacks on Quinn will make Quinn unelectable. Instead, they should rejoice that Hynes' demonization of the Blagojevich-Quinn administration, and his distancing from it, makes Hynes electable.
And fifth, Hynes must emphasize that he was one of the first people to support Obama for president, that Quinn has a questionable record of minority hiring as governor, and that Quinn tried to fire two black University of Illinois trustees. To win, Hynes needs 70 percent of the black vote. Embracing a black candidate running for lieutenant governor, such as Art Turner, would be helpful. So, too, would endorsements from black leaders.
My early prediction: Hynes got 294,717 votes (23.7 percent) against Obama in 2004. That's his 2010 base. Thus far, he's failed to expand it. Hynes is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
I asked the Hynes campaign to outline their strategy and how they can win. They refused. They're amateurs.
Locally, there are developments: Alderman Tom Allen (38th) rebuffed efforts by Springfield Democrats to persuade him to run for the open Northwest Side state Senate seat of Jim DeLeo (D-10). Against a second-tier Democratic field, Republican Alderman Brian Doherty (41st) is now favored.
In Maine Township, state Representative Rosemary Mulligan (R-55) has filed for Republican committeeman against incumbent Mark Thompson, her longtime ally. Mulligan, who has served since 1992, likely will resign her seat after her 2010 reelection. If she is a committeeman, she can pick her replacement.