January 28, 2009
PREDICTIONS FOR 2009: CAN YOU DO BETTER?
Are you "Smarter than Stewart"? This column has been making political predictions for over 35 years, much to the annoyance of the Northwest Side's political class. My accuracy rate exceeds 70%. Here's 12 relevant questions for 2009 -- ranging from governor to U.S. Senator to Cook County Board president to the 5th congressional district to the economy to the local housing market. I've made my predictions. You can make your predictions. E-mail them to my website. At the end of 2009, the scorecard will be posted. I'll buy a dinner for whoever's predictions prove that he/she is "Smarter than Stewart." Full Article...
January 21, 2009
5TH DISTRICT SLATEMAKING FEATURES "DEFT AND DUMB"
Label the Democrats' Jan. 10 slatemaking "Deft & Dumb." In the Northwest Side Chicago 5th congressional district, vacated by Pres. Obama's new chief-of-staff, Rahm Emanuel, it was State Rep. John Fritchey and his allies who were deft, and it was Ald. Pat O'Connor (40th) who was dumb. Emanuel declared his intention to resign on 11/6/08, and O'Connor had two months to lock up slating for the seat. But he dithered and delayed. He never pulled the trigger. He never publicly said: "I want the seat." And he never got his ally, Mayor Rich Daley, to say: "I want O'Connor to go to Congress." Fritchey, the son-in-law of Ald. Bill Banks' (36th) brother, was shrewd enough to realize that, in Illinois' toxic and corrupt political environment, being slated by "bosses" was a liability. O'Connor is a longtime (since 1984) committeeman, but at slatemaking, all the key committeemen (from the 33rd, 47th, 45th, 38th and 36th wards) abandoned O'Connor and backed Fritchey, who get less than a majority; then they voted for an "open primary," in which each committeeman can endorse who he pleases -- with most backing Fritchey. Turnout will be anemic, in the range of 30-40,000. State Rep. Sara Feigenholtz has plenty of money, and is the only credible female running. O'Connor filed, as did County Comr. Mike Quigley, and 11 other Democrats. The early outlook: In a 30,000 turnout, Fritchey, a longtime Blagojevich critic, wins; if over 40,000, Feigenholtz wins. Full Article...
January 14, 2009
A TALE OF 3 TOWSHIPS: REPUBLICANS IN RETREAT
For Republicans in northwest suburban Cook County, it's going, going and not gone. The 2008 elections validated a definite trend toward the Democrats, and the once-mighty Republican township organizations in Elk Grove and Schaumburg have all but evaporated; but in Maine Township, a deal between heretofor warring factions has given the party hope. In 1984, Reagan won the three townships with 73.7%; in 2008, Obama won them with 60.9%. The Republican vote has declined by 45,644. In Elk Grove, Republican committeeman Cheryl Axley quit after losing her 2006 bid to keep her appointed state senate seat; she then went to work for a Democratic lobbyist, and in 2008 endorsed Democrat Dan Kotowski, who beat her in 2006 by 1,434 votes. "It was a betrayal," said Mike Sweeney, who replaced her, and who got obliterated by Kotowski in his race for state senator, losing Elk Grove by 5,526 votes (Axley won in by 401 in 2006), and the district by 15,023 votes (40.4%). Obama won the township with 58.4%, and Democrat Mark Walker won the open 66th Dist. House seat. In Schaumburg, Republican committeeman -- and once-ardent Reaganite -- Paul Froehlich switched parties, and was re-elected by 6,379 votes (58%); Obama won the township with 62.7%. But Maine Township is looking good: After years of warring between the conservative and moderate factions, a truce has been finalized, and Republicans will present a united front in the April 2009 township elections. Obama won the township with 58.9%. But committeeman Mark Thompson is backing Supervisor Carol Teschky, and a 2009 Republican victory is likely. Full Article...
January 7, 2009
RACE IS HUGE FACTOR IN SENATE SUCCESSION
Three words describe Illinois' "Burris Circus": Black. Nominate. Elect. Appointee Roland Burris is black, which gives him a definite edge in the 2010 Democratic primary for US Senator. He is guaranteed at least a third of the vote because of his race. But, if nominated, he won't be elected. Burris, a journeyman politician of mediocre repute, is not of the caliber of Carol Moseley Braun or Barack Obama, who had significant appeal to white liberals and moderate suburbanites, and were elected, respectively, in 1992 and 2004. Blacks comprise 14.9% of the IL population, and 10% of the voters. In 1992, Braun got 557,694 votes (36.3%) in the primary, and won the election in the Year of the Woman. In 2004, Obama got 655,923 votes (52.8%) in the primary, and won the election. By comparison, when Burris ran for US Senator in the 1984 Dem primary, he got 360,182 votes (23%); when he ran for governor three times, he lost the primary -- in 1994 he got 401,142 votes (36.5%), in 1998 he got 290,303 votes (30.5%), in 2002 he got 363,591 votes (29.1%). Since Burris is already appointed, there won't be a 2009 special election. But Burris's support has not -- and will not in 2010 -- transcend his racial base. He can win a multi-candidate Dem primary, but he will not beat a credible Republican. Full Article...
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