November 26, 2008
41ST WARD REMAINS LAST REPUBLICAN OUTPOST

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and the absence of a Democratic presence in the Far Northwest Side 41st Ward sets Republican hearts aflutter and aglow.

Not only did state Representative Mike McAuliffe (R-20), the 41st Ward Republican committeeman, sweep the ward with 66.5 percent of the vote in his re-election race, other Republicans did surprisingly well despite the 2008 Democratic trend. Tony Peraica got 47.8 percent of the vote in the contest for state's attorney, and John McCain got 44.7 percent -- his best showing in Chicago.

Barack Obama got more than two-thirds of the vote in neighboring wards, as did Anita Alvarez, the new Democratic state's attorney, but that was only slightly better than John Kerry's 2004 showing. (See adjoining vote chart.)

"You can't beat the Republicans if you don't try, and in the 41st Ward, Democrats didn't try," said Northwest Side Democratic Organization chairman Frank Coconate.

"There was no election day activity," added Ralph Capparelli, who was the ward's Democratic committeeman from 1992 to 2008 and a state representative from 1971 until he lost to McAuliffe in 2004. "There was no sample ballot. There was no precinct operation. The Democratic presence in the ward has evaporated."

Both Coconate and Capparelli ran for ward Democratic committeeman in the 2008 primary, losing to Mary O'Connor. But their collective lament is not just sour grapes. O'Connor confirms it. "Our (election) focus was on helping Aurora Austriaco," O'Connor said. Austriaco was the Democratic candidate for state representative in the 65th District, which includes Park Ridge, Des Plaines and six precincts in the northwest corner of the 41st Ward.

"We did phone banking for her," O'Connor said. "We worked our ward's precincts for her and sent other community liaison workers (formerly known as precinct captains) into Park Ridge to help." Austriaco won those six precincts 1,343-936, with 58.9 percent of the vote, over incumbent Republican Rosemary Mulligan, as did state Senator Dan Kotowski (D-33), by 1,606-707 (with 69.6 percent of the vote), over Republican Mike Sweeney.

"What about the other 51 precincts in the ward?" sniffed Coconate. "She's the Democratic committeeman. It's her job to work precincts in the ward, not to send her people outside the ward."

O'Connor, who got 5,747 votes in February, (45.5 percent of the vote), to 4,383 for Capparelli, 1,541 for Coconate and 945 for Patricia Mulligan, admits to having "about 25 community liaison" workers, and she said she deployed them "where they could do the most good."  She acknowledges that she did nothing to aid Mike Marzullo, McAuliffe's Democratic foe, saying that McAuliffe "has high visibility, walks a lot of precincts . . . He's tough to beat."

"I'm encouraged by the increased Democratic vote," O'Connor said. Obama beat McCain in the ward by 15,096-11,858, getting 55.3 percent of the vote. In 2004 John Kerry beat George Bush by 14,625-13,017 (52.9 percent). Obama got 477 more votes than Kerry, while McCain got 1,159 fewer votes that Bush. Alvarez beat Peraica by 13,395-10,540, with 52.2 percent of the vote.

You are right, Madame Committeeman, but the 2.4 percent spike in the 41st Ward Democratic presidential vote fell short of the Obama uptick in adjacent wards, where there was a 3 percent to 5 percent "surge" in the Democratic presidential vote.

In the 45th Ward, Alderman and Committeeman Pat Levar's precinct captains pushed only state Representative Joe Lyons (D-19), ignoring Obama and Alvarez. Obama nevertheless won by 15,382-7,227, with 66.9 percent of the vote, better than Kerry's 13,790-8,344 (62.3 percent) win over Bush. Obama got 1,592 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 1,117 fewer votes than Bush. Alvarez beat Peraica with 60.5 percent of the vote.

In the 38th Ward, hard feelings about Alderman Tom Allen's narrow loss to Alvarez in the February primary smoldered, and precinct captains ignored Obama and Alvarez. Obama still won by 13,552-5,123 (with 71.5 percent of the vote), better than Kerry's 11,979-6,436 (68.7 percent). Obama got 1,573 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 1,313 fewer votes than Bush. Alvarez got 64.4 percent of the vote.

In the 39th Ward, Marge Laurino is the alderman and her husband, Randy Barnette, is the Democratic committeeman. Precinct captains pushed both Obama and state Representative John D'Amico (D-15). Obama won by 13,040-4,679 (with 72.5 percent of the vote), better than Kerry's 11,825-5,748 (67.2 percent). Obama got 1,215 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 1,069 fewer votes than Bush.

In the 40th Ward, controlled by Alderman and Committeeman Pat O'Connor, Obama won a huge 82 percent of the vote, beating McCain by 15,764-3,201. Kerry won by 13,998-4,034 (with 77.6 percent of the vote), Obama got 1,776 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 833 fewer votes than Bush.

In the 36th Ward, the Democratic organization run by Alderman and Committeeman Bill Banks and state Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10) has an unofficial "nonaggression pact" with the organization of McAuliffe, 41st Ward Alderman Brian Doherty and county Commissioner (and Elmwood Park Mayor) Pete Silvestri. The deal is this: The Banks/DeLeo organization does not work against McAuliffe, Doherty or Silvestri, and the Republicans don't try to beat DeLeo or establish a presence in the 36th Ward.

In this year's 20th District race, McAuliffe won the 36th Ward over Marzullo by 6,039-5,968, getting 50.3 percent of the vote.

Obama won the ward by 14,195-6,379 (with 68.2 percent of the vote), not that much better than Kerry's 13,277-7,652 (63.4 percent) win. Obama got 918 more votes than Kerry, and McCain got 1,273 fewer votes than Bush. Alvarez got 65.6 percent of the vote.

Thirty-five of the 36th Ward's 55 precincts are in McAuliffe's Illinois House district. In 2002, when incumbent Democrat Bob Bugielski, a member of Banks' organization, was remapped into McAuliffe's district, Bugielski carried the 36th Ward by 2,490 votes (with 61.1 percent of the vote), but McAuliffe beat him districtwide by 18,906-16,323 (53.7 percent).

In 2004, when Capparelli chose to run against McAuliffe, Banks' ward went for McAuliffe by 1,572 votes, and McAuliffe won districtwide by 25,022-17,249 (getting 59.2 percent of the vote). Capparelli and Banks have been antagonistic ever since, and Capparelli recruited Marzullo to run against McAuliffe.

On Nov. 4 Banks' ward went for McAuliffe by 71 votes, while McCain lost by 7,816 votes and Peraica lost by 7,127 votes. McAuliffe said that he won the ward because Banks' organization "ignored Marzullo." McAuliffe won districtwide by 7,577 votes (getting 59.4 percent of the vote), and roughly 30 percent of the district vote came from the 36th Ward.

A total of 39,951 votes were cast in the election. Ninety-five of the 20th District's 122 precincts are in Chicago and 27 are in the suburbs (Norridge, Harwood Heights and Niles). McAuliffe won the 41st Ward by 12,521-6,301 (with 66.5 percent of the vote), a margin of 6,220 votes. In 2004, against Capparelli, McAuliffe won the ward by 5,181 votes (with 63.3 percent of the vote), and in 2002, against Bugielski, he won the ward by 4,079 votes (62.5 percent).

In a bad year for Republicans, McAuliffe performed better than in the past, augmenting his majority in the 41st Ward, which casts more than 45 percent of the vote in the district -- 18,822 out of 39,951 in this election.

McAuliffe won the 38th Ward 360-339, and Marzullo won the 29th Ward 35-11. McAuliffe topped Marzullo in the suburbs by 4,833-3,544 (with 57.7 percent of the vote). Obama won Norridge and Harwood Heights 5,784-4,442 (getting 55.8 percent of the vote), with Marzullo running almost 2,000 votes behind him.

The bottom line: Marzullo was an inept and woefully underfunded candidate. His premise was that, in a Democratic year, Northwest Side voters would reject every Republican. He endorsed Obama, called McAuliffe a "closet Republican," ripped him for voting to raise taxes, and blamed the Republicans for "ruining" the economy. It didn't work. "People know and respect the McAuliffe name," McAuliffe said.

Marzullo had no ground game, no precinct or election day workers, and no visible support from O'Connor, Banks or Norwood Park Township Democratic Committeeman Bob Martwick.

But nothing lasts forever. DeLeo's term expires in 2010, and rumors are rife that he may not seek re-election. If he does not, the 36th Ward will field a candidate. DeLeo has been a senator since 1992. O'Connor said she will consider running if DeLeo retires, and embattled Harwood Heights Mayor Peggy Fuller may retire in 2009 and focus on a 2010 primary race against DeLeo or a bid for county commissioner against Silvestri.

This much is certain:

First, as long as there is no viable Democratic organization in the 41st Ward, McAuliffe will keep winning by 2-1 margins.

Second, as long as McAuliffe gets close to 67 percent of the vote in the 41st Ward, any Democratic opponent has to get at least 65 percent of the vote in Norwood Park Township and the 36th Ward to beat him for state representative.

Neither will happen any time soon.