November 12, 2008
LOCAL FIEFDOMS PLOT TO WIN EMANUEL SEAT

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

The Northwest Side is known as "Hog Heaven," and for good reason. It is a land of suspicious and territorial fiefdoms, where politics is the family business, where public offices are a family entitlement, and where ambitious politicians hungrily grab every scrap of power that is not nailed down.

What's now no longer nailed down is the area's 5th U.S. House District seat, occupied by Democrat Rahm Emanuel, who will be resigning in January to become the chief of staff in the Obama White House.

A special election will be held within 120 days of Emanuel's departure, and the victor of the Democratic primary will easily win the seat. It would not be surprising if eight or more credible Democrats seek the nomination, meaning that 20 percent of the vote would be enough to triumph. Geography, gender and ideology will be important criteria in what will be a low-turnout primary.

Emanuel, at age 48, was on track to become speaker of the House. First elected in 2002, Emanuel ran the Democratic congressional campaign committee in 2006, and he is widely credited with masterminding the Democrats' House takeover. He now is the caucus chairman, the number four position in leadership. Emanuel was poised to win the top spot after Speaker Nancy Pelosi, age 68, and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, age 69, retire, although that might not occur until 2020 or later. An Emanuel speakership would have meant a lock on his congressional seat until 2030 or longer.

The 5th District extends from the Lakefront at Lincoln Park west through the 46th and 47th wards, taking in a sliver of the 32nd and 33rd wards, and west through the 40th, 39th, 45th, 41st and 38th wards to the city limits. It also includes the west suburban municipalities of Schiller Park , Elmwood Park, River Grove, Melrose Park, Northlake and Franklin Park , which have large Hispanic populations.

In the spring primary, when 94,406 votes were cast, the ward-by-ward breakdown was as follows: 14 percent in the 47th Ward, 11.4 percent in the 45th Ward, 11.3 percent in the 41st Ward, 9.3 percent in the 38th Ward, 9.2 percent in the 36th Ward and 8.7 percent in the 39th Ward. About 25 percent of the vote came from the suburbs.

Already, the chieftains of the various fiefdoms have begun scheming and plotting, fully aware that Emanuel's successor could hold the seat for the next 20 years. This is their opportunity, and, equally important, it's a free shot. None of the potential contenders need give up their aldermanic or state legislative seat to run. Here's a rundown of the principal combatants:

*The Mell Machine. Alderman Dick Mell (33rd), unfondly known as "Old Gringo" among Hispanics, has no shame. He foisted his son-in-law Rod Blagojevich on the people of Illinois . Mell got Blagojevich elected state representative in 1992 and congressman in the 5th District in 1996, and he made such grandiose promises of state patronage to fellow committeemen that Blagojevich narrowly won the governor's nomination in 2002. After exercising such abjectly poor judgment, Mell should have publicly begged for forgiveness. Not "Forgetful Dick."

In 2008 Mell forced state Representative Rich Bradley to run for state senator so that his daughter, Deborah Mell, could take Bradley's job. Mell's efforts on behalf of Bradley failed to defeat state Senator Iris Martinez (D-20) -- just as Mell's 2007 efforts on behalf of Vilma Colom failed to oust Alderman Rey Colon (35th). Mell has become a paper tiger.

Nevertheless, Mell is back at the hog trough, and he is booming his daughter - who has yet to occupy any office - for Congress.

Advantage: Deborah Mell, age 39, is a lesbian who has appeal in the large gay community around Broadway and Montrose Avenue . Old Man Mell can still assemble a roving precinct operation of 300 workers, which he can deploy where opportune, and money won't be a problem. The Mell name is well known. It also would help if she's the only woman in the race.

Liability: Deborah Mell has no experience, no message and no credibility, and other Democratic committeemen are ardently disinclined to reward Mell with another trophy.

The Banks Boys: Alderman Bill Banks (36th), along with brothers Sam and Ron, and State Senator Jim DeLeo (D-10), run the 36th Ward with an iron fist. The alderman (who is also Democratic committeeman and council zoning committee chairman) and senator have, between them, over $2 million in their campaign accounts. A federal investigation, named Operation Crooked Code, is looking into citywide and ward zoning practices.

In 1996 Banks and Mell cut a deal: Banks backed Blagojevich for Congress, and Mell backed attorney John Fritchey, Sam Banks' son-in-law, for Blagojevich's Illinois House seat. Fritchey (D-11), age 44, has since emerged as a strident Blagojevich critic, and he was elected 32nd Ward Democratic committeeman in 2008. He currently is plotting a campaign for Illinois attorney general in 2010, as is Evanston state Representative Julie Hamos (D-18).

A 2009 Fritchey congressional bid is risky. He can count on his in-laws to deliver a huge 36th Ward vote, and he has name recognition in the eastern end of the district, but a loss would cripple a 2010 statewide bid.

Advantage: Fritchey will get 75 percent of the vote in the 36th Ward, which has 9.2 percent of the primary vote. He is a reformer and a liberal, but he must get a big vote in the 46th and 47th wards. Money is not a problem.

Liability: Being the Banks boys' candidate in 2009 will not be helpful to his image. If he runs, he better win.

*Laurino Legacy: The late Tony Laurino was the 39th Ward alderman from 1964 to 1994, and his dynasty perseveres and prospers. His daughter, Marge, is the 39th Ward alderman, his grandson, John D'Amico, is a state representative, and his son-in-law, Randy Barnette, is the ward Democratic committeeman.

The elder Laurino was under indictment at the time of his death, charged with hiring his wife, daughter, son-in-law and stepdaughter and a bunch of precinct captains as "ghost" payrollers, but that is now ancient history.

Marge Laurino, age 56, is utterly secure as alderman, but she knows that this is her last opportunity to move upward on the political ladder. Should she go to Washington, her husband, Barnette, would get the aldermanic post.

Advantage: Roughly 20 percent of the district's voters are of Italian-American heritage. The Laurino name is known. If she's the only woman in the race, she has an edge.

Liability: The Tony Laurino legacy will be rehashed. She lacks big money, and every other female candidate in the race subtracts from her vote outside her ward.

*Cullerton Clan: A Cullerton has been in the City Council for most years since 1871, and current 38th Ward Alderman Tom Allen, age 56, is related to the "Cullerton Clan" by marriage. The ward's Democratic committeeman is Patty Jo Cullerton, the daughter of the late alderman Tom Cullerton, who was the nephew of the legendary P.J. Cullerton, the longtime Cook County assessor. Allen ran in the 2008 primary for state's attorney, and he lost by fewer than 10,000 votes. He is looking to run for judge in 2010.

Advantage: Labor unions heavily supported Allen in the 2008 primary, and they will again. Allen also can expect backing from Alderman Pat Levar and state Representative Joe Lyons (D-19), from the neighboring 45th Ward. That gives him the bulk of the vote in two wards with 21 percent of the primary vote.

Liability: Allen lacks charisma, and he is still saddled with close to $200,000 debt from his 2008 campaign.

*The Fighting 47th Ward: Veteran Alderman Gene Schulter (47th), first elected in 1975, was once a protege of Ed Kelly, whom he ousted as the Democratic committeeman in 2004. The Ravenswood/Lincoln Square ward has changed demographically from older and working class to younger and professional class. Schulter, age 60, has adapted, and he is quite popular.

Advantage: Schulter is well known in the eastern portion of the district. Liability: He lacks the money to spread elsewhere.

Other potential contenders include Alderman Pat O'Connor (40th), age 54, who has served in the City Council since 1983; Nancy Kaszak, who successfully spearheaded opposition to the 2008 constitutional convention referendum and who lost congressional primaries in 1996 and 2002; state Representative Sara Feigenholtz (D-12), age 52, a liberal from the east end of the district; Cary Capparelli, a businessman and the son of former state representative Ralph Capparelli of the 41st Ward; and former Bill Clinton staffer Pete Dagher, who lost in 2002.

Not running are county commissioners Forrest Claypool and Mike Quigley, who are aiming for Cook County Board president in 2010.

My early prediction: If east enders Schulter, Feigenholtz, Kaszak, Mell and Fritchey all run, they fractionalize that vote. If three or more women run, they divide the gender vote, and Laurino can forget about it. If Kaszak, Schulter, Feigenholtz and Fritchey all run, they split the liberal vote. The big three are Fritchey, Allen and Schulter, with an edge to Fritchey.