November 5, 2008
"ELECTIONATOR" SHOWS HOW TO CHANGE HISTORY

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

In the legendary movie, the "Terminator" is transported into the past through a fictional time portal to terminate John Connor and thus change the course of history.

In this column, the "Electionator" travels back in time, tinkers with the outcome of certain elections, alters the course of history, and terminates a whole bunch of politicians. How about this: No Mayor Daley. No Governor Blagojevich. No President Nixon. No Senator Obama. No President Clinton.

By terminating just a few votes or candidates, the national political landscape, and that of Chicago and Illinois, would be markedly different.

Let's start 60 years ago, in 1948, when liberal Republican New York Governor Tom Dewey was supposed to beat Democratic President Harry Truman. Dewey ran a complacent campaign and refused to defend the Republican Congress. Truman beat Dewey by 24,105,812-21,970,085, taking the electoral vote by 303-189, even though Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond got 39 votes. Dewey narrowly lost Arizona, California (by 17,865 votes), Colorado, Idaho, Illinois (by 33,612 votes), Iowa, Nevada, Ohio (by 7,107 votes) and Wyoming. Terminate about 90,000 pro-Truman votes in those states, and Dewey is president.

Had Dewey won, Earl Warren would have been the vice president and not a future U.S. Supreme Court chief justice. Had Dewey been re-elected in 1952, Warren would have been the Republican presidential candidate in 1956, and he likely would have lost to Democratic Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson. There would have been no Eisenhower-Nixon ticket in 1952, and no Warren Court. The Republicans would have been America's liberal, pro-civil rights party. Richard Nixon, John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson would have remained senators.

Let's move to 1960. Kennedy tops Nixon in the popular vote by 34,227,096-34,108,546, a margin of 118,550 votes, and wins the electoral vote by 303-219. But Kennedy wins Illinois by a bare 8,858 votes, getting 27 electoral votes. He also takes Missouri by 9,980 votes, Nevada by 2,493, New Jersey by 22,091, New Mexico by 2,249, South Carolina by 9,571 and Texas by 46,233. Terminate about 90,000 pro-Kennedy votes in those states, and Nixon is president.

Had Nixon won, he would have struggled with Cuba and Vietnam. There would have been no Kennedy assassination, no Great Society and no Kennedy dynasty, and Nixon would have dealt with the civil rights movement. In 1968 JFK likely would have beaten Barry Goldwater for president, and that means no Watergate and no impeachment.

On to 1976. Nixon is disgraced and has resigned. Gerald Ford is president. Ronald Reagan challenges him for the Republican nomination, and the Democrats nominate Jimmy Carter. Had JFK then been finishing his second term, it would have been Bobby Kennedy's turn.

Carter defeats Ford by 40,828,929-39,148,940, a margin of 1,679,989 votes, and by an electoral vote of 297-240, just 27 more than needed. Carter sweeps the conservative, Republican-leaning southern states of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas and Tennessee, while Ford wins California, Illinois, New Jersey and Michigan. Ohio goes for Carter by 11,116 votes. Terminate fewer than 50,000 pro-Carter votes in Ohio, Mississippi and the Carolinas, and Ford is president.

Had Ford won, Reagan might have run in 1980, but he wouldn't have won. The sour economy, Iran and gas prices would have doomed the Republicans. Ted Kennedy would have been elected.

On to 1992. George H.W. Bush is finishing his first term. America just won the Gulf War. Big-name Democrats such as Ted Kennedy, Mario Cuomo, Al Gore, Sam Nunn, Dick Gephardt, Lloyd Bentsen and Jay Rockefeller have taken a pass. The uninspiring presidential field consists of Bill Clinton, Paul Tsongas, Tom Harkin, Jerry Brown and Bob Kerrey. Bush is supposed to win a second term, and the Democrats salivate about running against Vice President Dan Quayle in 1996.

But a recession hits, women are energized by the Clarence Thomas hearings, Ross Perot runs, and Clinton -- who was really running to set the stage for 1996 -- scores an upset, topping Bush 44,908,254-39,102,343, with 19,741,065 votes for Perot, getting 370 electoral votes to Bush's 168, or 100 more than needed. Terminate Clinton, and Tsongas or Harkin would have gone to the White House. That would have meant no Hillary Clinton.

Then there's 2000 and 2004. Al Gore lost the electoral vote because he lost Florida by 519 votes. John Kerry lost the electoral vote because he lost Ohio by 118,599 votes. Had Gore won, and had 9/11 occurred, Gore would have won in 2004, but he now would be as unpopular as Bush. Had Kerry won, he would be saddled with Iraq and the economy, the Republicans would still be in control of Congress, and John McCain would beat Kerry in this election. Terminate a few pro-Bush votes in Florida and Ohio, and he would be a dim memory.

Looking at local contests, the seminal events occurred in 1979 in Chicago and in 1994 statewide. In 1979 Mayor Michael Bilandic was upset by Jane Byrne, which ironically put Rich Daley on the path to the mayoralty. In 1994 Nancy Drew Sheehan was defeated for state treasurer, which put Rod Blagojevich on the path to the governorship. Here's how the "Electionator" could have terminated both:

Bilandic, the longtime 11th Ward alderman, was chosen by the City Council to succeed Mayor Richard J. Daley, who died in 1976. He was to be a caretaker mayor, holding the post until the younger Richard Daley, then a state senator, was ready. Bilandic beat 41st Ward Alderman Roman Pucinski in the special 1977 election by 340,363-216,058, getting 51 percent of the vote in a field that included Ed Hanrahan and Harold Washington, in a turnout of 666,264.

By 1979 Bilandic was entrenched and reasonably popular, and he likely would have served two or more terms. Jane Byrne was deemed a nuisance candidate, as a whole array of more formidable candidates -- Pucinski, Dan Rostenkowski, George Dunne, Stanley Kusper, Ed Burke, Ed Vrdolyak -- took a pass. But the snows came, Bilandic performed ineptly, the public was enraged, and Byrne topped Bilandic in the Democratic primary by 412,909-396,134, a margin of 16,775 votes. Terminate just a few of those pro-Byrne (or, really, anti-Bilandic) votes, and Bilandic would have been mayor until 1987 or even 1991. No Byrne would have meant no Washington, and no Washington (who died in 1987) would have meant no Daley as mayor.

In fact, had Bilandic beaten Byrne, it is unlikely that Daley would have been elected Cook County state's attorney in 1980. Daley had no prosecutorial experience, and he would not have been slated for the post had Bilandic been mayor, as it would have given too much power to the 11th Ward. Daley only ran to protect his power base and future, and he convincingly beat Byrne-backed Ed Burke in the Democratic primary by 413,544-246,392. In the election, despite covert support by Byrne of Republican incumbent Bernard Carey, Daley won by 1,035,450-1,013,599, a margin of 21,851 votes, with 50.5 percent of the vote.

Terminate 17,000 pro-Byrne votes in 1979 or 22,000 pro-Daley votes in 1980, and Daley never would have been elected state's attorney, and he never would have been in a position to be elected mayor when Washington died.

Then there's 1983, when Daley ran for mayor and got 344,590 votes (30 percent of the total), earning the spoiler tag by enabling Washington to top Byrne by 424,131-387,986. Had Daley not run, Byrne would have won, and she would have made Daley's defeat in 1984 her top priority. Byrne would have been mayor into the 1990s.

And then there's 1987. Byrne tried a comeback and lost the primary to Washington by 587,594-509,436, a margin of 78,158 votes. Terminate 80,000 of those pro-Washington votes and Byrne would have reclaimed the mayoralty, and Daley would have had to beat her in 1991 or 1995 -- presuming he was still state's attorney.

Statewide, the key election was 1994, when Republican Judy Barr Topinka was elected treasurer over Democrat Sheehan by 1,504,335-1,427,317, a margin of 77,108 votes. Republicans swept every state office that year. Had Sheehan won, she would have been the obvious Democratic candidate for governor in 1998. That year liberals bolted from conservative Democratic candidate Glenn Poshard because of his anti-abortion and gay rights stance, and George Ryan won by 119,903 votes. Sheehan would have beaten Ryan. By terminating 80,000 pro-Topinka votes in 1994, there would be no Ryan, no Blagojevich in 2002 and no morass of state corruption.

And then there's Barack Obama. He's Illinois' senator because of the perceptivity and ineptitude of Carol Moseley Braun. She was astute enough to run in 1992, topping incumbent Al Dixon in the primary by 557,694-504,077 (with 38.3 percent of the vote), with 394,497 votes for Al Hofeld. After a tumultuous first term, Braun managed to bungle her re-election, losing to Republican Peter Fitzgerald by 98,545 votes in 1998.

Terminate Braun in 1992, and Dixon would have been re-elected, and he now would be the Democratic Senate majority leader. Terminate Braun's senatorial incompetence, and she would have been re-elected in 1998, giving Obama no opportunity to run for that Senate seat in 2004, and no opportunity to be president.