March 26, 2008
REPUBLICANS SCENT WIN IN MCCAIN-OBAMA RACE
Can you say "President John McCain"? America is indisputably becoming more liberal. So McCain, if victorious, won't preside over any kind of conservative "Reagan Revolution." But McCain can reposition the Republicans as more centrist, and less ideological. The Obama-Clinton contest shows deep racial and gender divides. Hispanics clearly resist a black president. Baby-boomer women clearly resent Obama for blocking the election of a female president in their lifetime. The Spitzer situation inflames feminists' desire not to have a man in the White House. But Obama's association with "black racists" like Rev. Wright is costing him dearly. If Obama's "change" means a lurch to the left, McCain has an opening. The country's economy is tanking, and Iraq is intractable. In an election, Clinton beats McCain, but McCain beats Obama. It's all about coalitions. President Bush, advised by Karl Rove, won because he broadened his base -- upping the 2000 Bush vote by 11.5 million in 2004. McCain can only win in 2008 if he cuts into the Democratic base -- which means attracting anti-Obama Hispanics, and discouraging pro-Clinton females from voting. If the election is all about Iraq and the economy, McCain loses. If the election is all about Obama, McCain wins. Full Article...
March 19, 2008
"SALSA TSUNAMI" BOOSTS MARTINEZ TO VICTORY
A "salsa tsunami" hit Cook County on Feb. 5. Hispanics beat Anglos in five key Democratic primary contests. Conjecture is rampant, at least nationally, that Hispanics will not back blacks -- like Barack Obama for president. In Chicago, however, Obama topped Hillary Clinton by 43,208-39,619 in the 11 city Hispanic-majority wards. Clinton won the Southwest Side Mexican-American wards, and Cicero, but Obama won the near Northwest Side Puerto Rican wards. In other key races, Hispanic winners were Anita Alvarez for state's attorney, Frank Avila for MWRD commissioner, and Jesse Reyes for judge. In local races, Board of Review commissioner Joe Berrios and State Sen. Iris Martinez (D-20) were also triumphant. The big loser was Old Gringo, Ald. Dick Mell (33rd). Mell's "family values" dictated that he dump State Rep. Rich Bradley so as the enable his lesbian daughter, Deborah Mell, to take his seat; her agenda includes gay marriage. Mell strong-armed Bradley into a race against Martinez in a 48% Hispanic district. Of the 9 wards in the 20th Dist., 5 Democratic committeemen backed Bradley, and 3 backed Martinez. Those 3, plus the 32nd Ward, gave Martinez a 6,878-3,802 margin; the Big Five for Bradley, including Mell, Ald. Ariel Reboyras (30th), Randy Barnette (39th), and county chairman Joe Berrios (31st Ward), gave Bradley a 7,327-6,771 margin. Mell barely (51.3%) carried his 33rd Ward for Bradley. Martinez spent over $400,000, the bulk from State Sen. President Emil Jones. Bradley was backed by IL House Speaker Mike Madigan. The huge female vote helped Martinez. Bradley had workers 3-deep in the district's 137 precincts, to no avail. "Women were enraged that the ward bosses wanted to replace me with a man," said Martinez, who is now La Tigressa. She could win the 4th Dist. congressional seat in the future. Berrios, despite backing Anglo loser Bradley, won big in his bid for re-election -- 153,053-107,889 (58.7%) over Jay Paul Deratany. Full Article...
March 12, 2008
"JAN/BOB MACHINE" SUFFERS BIG SETBACK
Don't try to say "U.S. Senator Jan Schakowsky." After the dismal Feb. 5 performance of the "Jan/Bob Machine," congresswoman Schakowsky (D-9) and her husband, Bob Creamer, are going to ground. Their machine backed Larry Suffredin for state's attorney, Jay Paul Deratany for the Board of Review, Barack Obama for president, and Ira Silverstein for 50th Ward Democratic committeman. The first two lost big. Schakowsky, 63, wants to be Obama's successor if he's president or vice-president. That means Gov. Rod Blagojevich has to appoint her. But Blago might run for the post himself. The Jan/Bob Machine is almighty in Evanston and close-in liberal environs, but it's support of Deratany against BOR Comr. Joe Berrios was the epitome of stupidity. Berrios, an ally of Mayor Rich Daley and IL House Speaker Mike Madigan, won easily. Plus, Suffedin got pulverized outside the North Shore, and ran poorly even there. The Jan/Bob Machine proved that IT IS NOT a power to be reckoned with, so Jan won't go the the U.S. Senate. Full Article...
March 5, 2008
OBERWEIS LOSS POSSIBLE IN 14TH DISTRICT ELECTION
Other than being pompous, arrogant, intolerant and utterly insufferable, 14th Dist. Republican congressional candidate -- and three-time statewide loser -- Jim Oberweis may have another flaw: Unelectability. The special March 8 election to replace ex-Speaker Denny Hastert in solidly Republican territory should be a slam-dunk for the Republicans. But Oberweis is the "Jesse Helms" of Illinois politics: loved by a few, and detested by many more. He may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. In the 2/5 primary, Oberweis got 56% and beat State Sen. Chris Lauzen, in a turnout of 74,935; Bill Foster won the Democratic primary with 49.5%, in a turnout of 66,497. The Obama Phenomenon drove voter participation, but that won't occur on 3/8. Both Oberweis and Foster are spending $2 million. It's a referendum on Oberweis. If the Lauzen vote defects to Foster, Oberweis loses. In the North Shore 10th District, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is in trouble; anti-Iraq Democrat Dan Seals won his primary with 81.4%. In the 8th Dist., Rep. Melissa Bean (D) got many more votes than the Republicans in the primary. In the 11th District, vacated by Jerry Weller (R), the Republican nominee quit, virtually handing the seat to Democrat Debbie Halvorson. Full Article...
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