January 30, 2008
"BIG BLACK BLOWOUT" IS LIKELY PRIMARY RESULT
Call it Black Tuesday. Or the Big Black Blowout. In the Feb. 5, 2008 Democratic primary, a booming black turnout will result in Barack Obama's victory in the presidential contest, and a sweep by black candidates of every Cook County race: State's Attorney, Recorder, Clerk of Court, two Appellate Court vacancies. Here's my predictions: Statewide Democratic turnout will be 1.5 million, not quite as high as 1992's, but a lot of 2004 (U.S. Senate primary) Obama voters, especially baby boomer females, will opt for Hillary. Obama will win with 45%, to Clinton's 40%. A key race is the Board of Review (2nd), where incumbent Joe Berrios has a fast-closing challenge from Jay Paul Deratany, who is backed by Assessor Jim Houlihan and U.S. Rep. Jan Schakowsky's North Shore organization. This is a Houlihan power grab. He has given Deratany $184,000. If Deratany wins, Houlihan will control the BOR and the state PTAB, which hears appeals -- total vertical dominance. Houlihan is eyeing a 2011 mayoral run. State's Attorney: Howard Brookins is like Pompeii, just waiting for a "deadbeat eruption." Brookins is black, and will narrowly beat Tom Allen and Larry Suffredin in the primary, but Republican Tony Peraica will benefit from any eruption before November. Respected incumbent Alan Greiman will lose for Appellate Court; blacks Sharon Coleman and John Steele will win. Ira Silverstein is coming on strong in the 50th Ward committeeman race. Ralph Capparelli and Sandi Jackson will win the the 41st and 7th wards. In congressional races, it will be Lipinski (3rd), Seals (10th), Baldermann (11th) and Oberweis (14th). Full Article...
January 23, 2008
"TRASH TALK" IGNITES STATE'S ATTORNEY RACE
"I'm not Dick" is the near-universal refrain in the Democratic primary for Cook County State's Attorney. All the candidates except Bob Milan, the first assistant state's attorney, are trash talking incumbent Dick Devine. Milan was endorsed by his boss. Candidates include Ald. Tom Allen (38th), Cook County Comr. Larry Suffredin, chief deputy state's attorney Anita Alvarez, black Ald. Howard Brookins (21st), and ex-state official Tommy Brewer. Alvarez trashes everybody as "just politicians," and Devine for "not keeping his word." Suffredin calls Devine's record an "embarrassment." Brookins rips the "culture" of the office, saying his priority will be "justice...not just winning convictions." Allen said Devine has "gone fishing" in his prosecution of official corruption in Chicago and Cook County, and that "he's not done much of anything." Hanging over the race is the specter of a huge Barack Obama vote for president, plus the spur of John Stroger's death, which will heighten black turnout, and aid Brookins, who is favored. The field hopes fervently for a "deadbeat eruption" -- some scandal attaching to Brookins, similar to what sank appointed black State's Attorney Cecil Partee in 1990. Turnout will be around 850,000.Expect Brookins to win with 255,000, to 230,000 for Allen, 185,000 for Suffredin, 85,000 for Alvarez, 50,000 for Milan, and 25,000 for Brewer. That's a 31% victory for Brookins. In the Recorder's race, there's plenty of trash talk between Gene Moore and Ed Smith. Full Article...
January 16, 2008
"THREE STOOGES" REVIVED IN 20TH DIST. SENATE RACE
The "Three Stooges" have been resurrected on Chicago's Northwest Side, but they're not Moe, Larry and Curly. In the Feb. 5 Democratic primary for state senator in the 20th Dist., the "stooges" are Rich, Iris and Rod -- as in State Rep. Rich Bradley (D-39), State Sen. Iris Martinez (D-20), and Gov. Rod Blagojevich. A "stooge" is an underling to another, and a term of contempt. Martinez deems Bradley a Madigan Monkey, and stooge of Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan; Bradley deems Martinez a Rod Rooter, and stooge of Illinois Senate President Emil Jones. And Bradley heaps scorn and contempt on Blagojevich, whom he calls a "dysfunctional governor" causing a "dysfunctional state government" which has created "paralysis." Martinez called Bradley "spineless." The 20th Dist. is majority Hispanic, but Bradley is the slated Democratic candidate, and is backed by key committeemen: Dick Mell (33rd), Joe Berrios (31st), Ariel Reboyras (30th), Randy Barnette (39th) and P.J. Cullerton (38th), as well as the Hispanic Democratic Organization. Only Manny Flores (1st), Rey Colon (35th) and Roberto Maldonado (26th) are supporting Martinez, senator since 2002. Bradley has workers three deep in the district's 197 precincts, and they are promising everything to everybody. A third candidate, Carlos Guevara, is attacking Martinez. The outlook: Bradley has the edge. In the always-confusing Metropolitan Water Reclamation District primary, gender, ethnicity, race, slating and ballot position trump qualifications. For three spots, Meany, Jones, Avila, Maragos and Santos are in contention. Full Article...
January 9, 2008
"SHELF LIFE" AT RISK FOR STONE, CAPPARELLI
Onetime U.S. Vice-President John Nance Garner opined that his job wasn't "worth a bucket of warm spit." That aphorism is equally applicable to the office of Democratic ward committeeman in Chicago. Without city, county or state patronage, a committeeman has minimal clout and maximum responsibilities. In the 41st and 50th Wards, respectively, incumbents Ralph Capparelli (41st) and Berny Stone (50th) can't give the job away. Both have been around for almost 40 years, and are septuagenarians. As such, their political "shelf life" has not yet expired. Capparelli wanted to give it to a member of his organization, but nobody wanted the job. Now Capparelli faces three foes on Feb. 5: Mary O'Connor, Frank Coconate and Pat Mulligan. Coconate is attacking O'Connor as a closet Republican, since she voted in the 2004 GOP primary. Stone is facing State Sen. Ira Silverstein (D-8), his onetime protégé, in the primary. Stone said he promised to resign after one year and give it to Silverstein; he said he's running only because of Silverstein's alleged duplicity. Silverstein calls Stone "desperate" and a "liar." Both old war horses are favored to win. Full Article...
January 2, 2008
BLACK DEMOCRATS NEED A FEB. 5 OBAMA SURGE
The Feb. 5 Illinois primary will be a love feast for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D). It's veni, vidi, vici -- he came, he saw, he conquered. But for a legion of down-ballot black Democrats, it's more like "I need, I hope, I pray." Obama will spur a huge black turnout, and that will impact Democratic ward committeeman contests in black areas, as well as countywide and judicial contests with black candidates. In the South Side 7th Ward, the Jackson Clan will obliterate the Beavers Clan. U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. is a big Barack booster, and his wife, Ald. Sandi Jackson, will beat the crusty Bill Beavers. In the Bronzeville 3rd Ward, where Dorothy Tillman played the race card for decades, pro-Daley Ald. Pat Dowell will beat Ken Dunkin. For state's attorney, black Ald. Howard Brookins (21st) will find himself buried under a pile of negativity, and could be 2008's version of Cecil Partee. But if black voters stick with him, he will win. For recorder, it's city vs. suburbs, with black Chicago Ald. Ed Smith (who is endorsed by Daley) trying to dump black incumbent Gene Moore, of Maywood. And in two Appellate Court races, black candidates are favored. Full Article...
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