August 8, 2007
DEMOCRATS' '08 REFRAIN:BLAME THE REPUBLICANS

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

News flash (Autumn 2006): Democratic House minority leader Nancy Pelsoi proclaims that “Democrats are prepared to govern and ready to lead.”

News flash (November 2006): Democrats win control of Congress for the first time since 1994, gaining 28 House seats and six Senate seats, for majorities of 232-203 and 51-49, respectively.

News flash (January 2007): Speaker Pelosi promises enactment of Democratic agenda within 100 hours. That became 100 days. And now it’s past 200 days. How about 2009?

News flash (Summer 2007): Senate majority leader Harry Reid rebuts Republican charges that the 110th Congress is a “do-nothing Congress.” Reid said that “it’s taking a little longer.”

News flash (Summer 2007): Blame it on the Republicans. Maryland’s Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic House Campaign Committee, blames Senate Republicans for blocking Senate Democrats from passing House-enacted bills.

More than 200 House bills have been sent to the Senate.

As set forth in the adjoining vote chart, House Democrats have passed some meaningful legislation: $120 billion for the Iraq War, the 2008 budget resolution, a minimum wage increase, funding research on stem cells and human cloning, 9/11 Commission recommendations and restrictions on appointments of U.S. attorneys.

But voters expected a lot more. Recent polling shows Congress’ approval rating below 25 percent, which is lower than George Bush’s and lower than that of the Republican-controlled 109th Congress. House Democratic strategists are confused and concerned. They sense that voters will want a change in 2008, and a Democrat will win the presidency, perhaps in a landslide. But they also sense that prospects for gaining more seats are being stifled by the Democrats’ disappointing congressional performance.

In Illinois, however, the Democrats’ 10-9 edge in the House delegation won’t change, primarily due to Democratic recruiting failures. Here’s the 2008 outlook:

6th District (western Cook County suburbs, DuPage County): Republican Peter Roskam won this open seat in 2006 by just 4,810 votes, getting 51.4 percent of the vote and beating the much-hyped Tammy Duckworth, an Army helicopter pilot who lost both legs in Iraq. Roskam raised $2,888,932, and Duckworth raised $3,269,173. In addition, the national parties spent sizable amounts on Chicago media market buys: $3.17 million for Duckworth and $3.36 million for Roskam.

Duckworth carried the Cook County portion of the district by 1,968 votes but lost DuPage County by 6,778 votes. After her defeat she was appointed director of the state Department of Veterans Affairs.

Duckworth won’t run again in 2008, nor will Christine Cegelis, who lost to incumbent Henry Hyde in 2002 and 2004 and who lost the 2006 Democratic primary. With $544,735 on hand as of July 1 and with no credible 2008 foe, the conservative Roskam is a cinch for re-election.

18th District (Peoria, Springfield suburbs, 16 rural counties): Republican incumbent Ray LaHood is retiring after seven terms, and Democrats thought they had the perfect nominee in state Senator John Sullivan of suburban Quincy. But Sullivan’s seat is up in 2008, and he decided to seek re-election. The likely Democrat is former Quincy mayor Chuck Scholz. Republican contenders may include state Representatives Aaron Schock and Dave Leitch and former legislator Jeff Mays. A Republican will replace LaHood.

14th District (Kane, Kendall, DeKalb and four rural counties): Longtime (1998-2006) Republican House Speaker Dennis Hastert lost his post to Pelosi in 2007, but he might stick around if he could regain it in 2009. That would require a net Republican gain of 15 seats in 2008 -- which is highly unlikely.

If he retires, a nasty Republican primary will ensue. Possible contenders include Hastert staffer Mike Stokke, state Senator Chris Lauzen, state Representative Tim Schmitz, Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns, Kane County Board Chairwoman Karen McConnaughay and dairy magnate Jim Oberweis, who lost statewide primaries in 2002, 2004 and 2006. If the arch-conservative, anti-immigration Oberweis wins, a Democrat would have a chance.

But the Democratic field is distinctly inauspicious: 2006 loser John Laesch, physicist Bill Foster and attorney Jotham Stein. State Representative Linda Chapa LaVia, like Sullivan, won’t give up her House seat to run. Hence, a Republican will keep the seat.

The adjoining vote chart includes six area Representatives: Democrats Rahm Emanuel, Jan Schakowsky, Dan Lipinski and Luis Gutierrez, all from Chicago-dominated districts, and Republicans Roskam and Mark Kirk, from suburban districts. All but Lipinski and Kirk are safe in 2008. Here’s the outlook:

10th District (North Shore of Cook County and east Lake County): Kirk had a scare in 2006, defeating Democrat Dan Seals by just 13,651 votes, with 53.4 percent of the vote. He won in 2004 by 78,275 votes and in 2002 by 70,311 votes. Clearly, dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and the Bush Administration took a toll. Kirk, a liberal on social issues, has supported Iraq policy. Kirk spent $3.1 million in 2006, and Seals spent $1.9 million.

This year Kirk voted against sending 20,000 more troops to Iraq, but he opposed the Democrats’ withdrawal deadline. Seals, a marketing executive, is running again, proclaiming himself the “anti-war candidate.” He faces opposition in the Democratic primary from Jay Footlik, a business consultant. According to July 1 fund-raising disclosures, Kirk had $1.1 million on hand, to Seals’ $265,000 and Footlik’s $274,000.

The outlook: If the Iraq situation is not resolved by the 2008 election, if the Democratic presidential candidate runs on a get-out-of-Iraq platform, if national Democrats dump $3 million into Seals’ campaign, and if Kirk doesn’t disavow the Bush Administration’s Iraq policy, he will lose. Right now, he’s still a narrow favorite.

3rd District (Southwest Side of Chicago and adjacent suburbs): Dan Lipinski is his father’s son, and therein lies his problem. Lipinski was a college professor in Tennessee when his dad, Bill Lipinski, who represented the district from 1983 to 2004, decided to retire in 2004 -- after he was renominated and just before the deadline for naming a replacement. Bill Lipinski is a Daley loyalist and the 23rd Ward Democratic committeeman. When the committeemen met to pick a new nominee, Dan Lipinski was the only candidate. The media, and a lot of voters, were upset about the sneaky selection. So what else is new? Todd Stroger got his dad’s job, as have many others.

In Congress, Dan Lipinski votes (as did his dad) as a conservative on social issues, opposing abortion rights, stem cell research and human cloning. He had a primary challenge in 2006 from John Kelly and John Sullivan, but he won with 54.5 percent of the vote. In 2008 Mark Pera, an assistant Cook County state’s attorney, is set to run, and he will attack Lipinski from the left. But as long as the powerhouse 11th, 13th and 19th Ward Democratic organizations stick with the “Big Lipper,” the “Lil’ Lipper” won’t be beat.